泥石流危险范围预测模型及在昆明东川城区的应用

结合泥石流危险范围模型实验数据,运用多元回归分析方法探讨了泥石流危险范围预测,并进行了误差分析。以昆明市东川城区后山3条泥石流沟为例,运用该模型对其危险范围进行了预测分析,为东川城区泥石流防灾提供了科学依据。     

大型构筑物GNSS监测多路径探测及消除方法研究

本文分析了多路径效应产生的原因及其信号特征,利用相同环境下,相邻周期相同时刻的GNSS观测数据多路径误差应有强相关性的特征,采用逐个观测历元差分和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来消弱多路径效应的影响,从而提高大型构筑物GNSS监测的成果精度。     

15~30d延伸期逐日预报在线显示平台的设计与实现

延伸期逐日预报是近年来涌现出的新兴气象业务。详细介绍了浙江省气候中心研发的15~30 d延伸期逐日预报在线显示平台。该平台以CFSv2和DERF2.0两个气候模式的预报产品为依托,基于5日集合平均方案,运用双线性插值技术形成0.25°×0.25°格点预报产品和省、市、县(市、区)三级行政区域站点预报产品,通过绝对误差和空间相关系数两种方法开展预报检验。针对县级气象部门的精细化服务需求,设计了15~30 d预报时间序列显示界面,并通过"包络线法"和"误差线法"分别给出平均气温和降水预报的上下限。业务平台测试版试运行以来表现出较好的预报性能,以2016年4月两次持续性强降水过程为例分析了平台的预报表现,结果表明平台分别提前20 d和16 d预报出这两次过程。针对存在的问题和不足进行了探讨,指出大力发展数值模式解释应用技术和概率预报是业务平台不断走向深入的技术基石。     

ELEMENTARY VIEW OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF THE ATMOSPHERES OF VARIOUS PLANETS

The global mean temperatures of the atmosphere and the surface of various planets of the solar system are deter-mined by taking the system as in radiative equilibrium,with the atmosphere taken as transparent to solar radiation butwith an albedo α,and composed of N layers each of which absorbs all infrared radiation that falls on it,and a top layerof partial absorptivity a,while the surface is taken as black.It is found that,for the earth's atmosphere with α=0.33,N=0,a=0.83,it gives the current observed mean surface temperature T_s=15℃ and the effective mean radiative temper-ature of the atmosphere T_a=242.6K.On the other hand;the atmosphere of Venus is characterized by α=0.70 andN=70,which yields a surface temperature of about 700K.It is also found that surface evaporation and absorption of solar radiation by the atmosphere tend to lower the sur-face temperature.     

广东省大宝山铜矿成矿预测空间数据库建设及成矿信息提取

大宝山矿床是我国著名多金属矿床之一,其中铁、铜硫、钨钼等元素均达到大型规模。据记载,唐宋时期古人即在此开采。随着社会经济的不断发展,矿产开采量的不断加剧,数百年的开采使得矿区内已探明的铁、铜硫、钨钼等多金属矿产资源储量日益枯竭。因此,矿山外围、深部找矿勘探增储工作显得非常迫切。然而,数百年的勘查与开采使得矿区积累了大量的地、物、化、遥数据,从而迫切的需要建立地学空间数据库,对多源空间数据进行科学有效地管理;为成矿信息的提取研究提供可能性。鉴于传统数据库不适应于高效的管理多源数据库,且GIS技术以其高效的数据管理及强大的空间数据处理能力,为多源数据集成找矿提供了一个科学的平台,在成矿信息提取及成矿预测评价中的应用越来越受到国内外学者的高度重视。本文运用ArcSDE Geodatabase和Oracle空间数据库技术,从概念设计、逻辑结构设计、物理设计3大方面系统介绍了大宝山地学空间数据库的设计过程;从图形库的建立、属性库的建立、图形库与属性库的关联3个方面介绍了空间数据库的建立过程,进而完成了大宝山铜矿成矿信息的空间数据库建库工作;完成对成矿数据进行科学有效地存储、查询、处理、运算及更新等操作,从而实现了基于GIS与SDM相结合的技术从数据库中对遥感热液蚀变、地质、物探、化探等有用成矿信息的提取;最终利用SKUA-GOCAD三维平台将多源数据进行三维可视化显示。研究成果可为生产矿山开展的外围、深部找矿勘探工作提供依据。     

Review of Methodologies for Offshore Wind Resource Observation and Assessment

Observation and assessment of wind resources is a prerequisite for wind farm construction. Due to the investment cost of offshore wind farm is very expensive, more accurate assessment of wind resources is needed to reduce their investment risks. From traditional field observation to multi-platform remote sensing and from ordinary mathematical statistics to coupled numerical model simulation, abundant offshore wind data and evolving assessment methods make the results of offshore wind resource assessment more and more reliable. Poor station observations and rich remote sensing data are distinct characteristics of offshore wind data. Technology integration of applying multi-scale coupled models to assimilate multi-source remote sensing and station data is a mainstream development direction of offshore wind resource assessment methods. The wind resource assessment for offshore wind farm should focus on data quality and method selections of data interpolation, wind speed calculation of return period and wind energy parameters adjusted for a long term condition because these factors can significantly affect the operating efficiency of future wind farm.     

Gravity anomalies of the ridge-transform system in the South Atlantic between 31 and 34.5° S: Upwelling centers and variations in crustal thickness

To decipher the distribution of mass anomalies near the earth's surface and their relation to the major tectonic elements of a spreading plate boundary, we have analyzed shipboard gravity data in the vicinity of the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 31–34.5° S. The area of study covers six ridge segments, two major transforms, the Cox and Meteor, and three small offsets or discordant zones. One of these small offsets is an elongate, deep basin at 33.5° S that strikes at about 45° to the adjoining ridge axes.By subtracting from the free-air anomaly the three-dimensional (3-D) effects of the seafloor topography and Moho relief, assuming constant densities of the crust and mantle and constant crustal thickness, we generate the mantle Bouguer anomaly. The mantle Bouguer anomaly is caused by variations in crustal thickness and the temperature and density structure of the mantle. By subtracting from the mantle Bouguer anomaly the effects of the density variations due to the 3-D thermal structure predicted by a simple model of passive flow in the mantle, we calculate the residual gravity anomalies. We interpret residual gravity anomalies in terms of anomalous crustal thickness variations and/or mantle thermal structures that are not considered in the forward model. As inferred from the residual map, the deep, major fracture zone valleys and the median, rift valleys are not isostatically compensated by thin crust. Thin crust may be associated with the broad, inactive segment of the Meteor fracture zone but is not clearly detected in the narrow, active transform zone. On the other hand, the presence of high residual anomalies along the relict trace of the oblique offset at 33.5° S suggests that thin crust may have been generated at an oblique spreading center which has experienced a restricted magma supply. The two smaller offsets at 31.3° S and 32.5° S also show residual anomalies suggesting thin crust but the anomalies are less pronounced than that at the 33.5° S oblique offset. There is a distinct, circular-shaped mantle Bouguer low centered on the shallowest portion of the ridge segment at about 33° S, which may represent upwelling in the form of a mantle plume beneath this ridge, or the progressive, along-axis crustal thinning caused by a centered, localized magma supply zone. Both mantle Bouguer and residual anomalies show a distinct, local low to the west of the ridge south of the 33.5° S oblique offset and relatively high values at and to the east of this ridge segment. We interpret this pattern as an indication that the upwelling center in the mantle for this ridge is off-axis to the west of the ridge.     

中沙和西沙群岛附近海域的浮游硅藻区系

中沙和西沙群岛位于南海中部偏北海区,它们远离大陆,水域开阔,无径流影响,且所处的纬度较低,与我国大陆近海的水性环境和所受大陆气候的影响明显不同。研究中沙和西沙群岛生物区系的特点对于了解生物的地理分布和变迁规律以及合理开发利用其海洋资源是必不可少的。 1973年5月、12月和1974年5月、11月,中国科学院南海海洋研究所在中沙、西沙群岛附近海琙进行浮游植物调査,提出了浮游硅藻名录。1975年5-6月和1976年3-4月中国科学院南海海洋研究所和中国科学院海洋研究所又在该海域进行了浮游硅藻类的定性、定量调查。我们参考这些资料,对该海域的浮游硅藻区系得到如下的初步认识。     

Long Wave Reflection and Transmission over A Sloping Step

This investigation examines long wave reflection and transmission induced by a sloping step. Bellman and Kalaba‘s (1959) invariant imbeddlng is introduced to find wave reflection. An alternative method matching both the surface elevation and its surface slope of each region at the junction is applied to the determination of wave reflection and transmission.The proposed methods are compared with the accurate numerical results of Porter and Porter (2000) and those of Mei (1983) for a vertical step. The wave reflection obtained for a mildly sloping step differs significantly from the result of Mei. The wave reflection is found to fluctuate owing to wave trapping for the ntild sloping step. The height and the face slope of the step are important for determining wave reflection and transmission coefficients.     

The influence of salinity on hysteresis of soil water‐retention curves

Taiwan is surrounded by the sea, and the southwestern seashores are suffering from a growing land subsidence problem caused by the excessive extraction of groundwater. There is also very serious intrusion by seawater along the coastline. These circumstances obstruct any land use, soil remediation or agriculture development in the area. When seawater intrudes, salt gets into the soil. The infiltration, evapotranspiration and the distribution of salinity in the unsaturated soil become a very complex problem. It is vital to investigate the hysteresis of soil water‐retention curves, combined with the salinity in these areas. Therefore, this study's main focus will be the calibration of variations in salinity and their effect on the hysteresis of soil water‐retention curves. In the wetting processes, the salty soil water‐retention curves undergo an upper shift compared with the original soil water‐retention curves because of the higher tension of saltwater. In the drying processes, there is also an upper shift compared with the original curves because the salinity influences the air‐entry pressure. The saltwater's high salinity causes the hysteresis of soil water‐retention curves to experience a greater shift. The changes in salinity also cause changes to the hysteresis curves’ shape factors, which conforms to Huang's model (developed by Huang H.C., Y.C. Tan, C.W. Liu, and C.H. Chen in 2005), the values of α and n. The value of α decreases with the increased salinity. The trend of the n value presents an irregular result. A linear regression of the α^w and α^d values was advanced where the R‐square values of α^w and α^d exceeded 0.97. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.