省界断面水资源监测站网建设实施与探讨

省界断面水资源监测是实行最严格水资源管理制度的重要基础工作,介绍了省界断面水资源监测站网建设的建设目标、主要任务、建设内容和投资,阐述了项目的实施和安排,并针对当前项目实施情况和特点,探讨了项目实施和运行管理需要注意的问题。     

Impact of urban land-use change in eastern China on the East Asian subtropical monsoon: A numerical study

The effect of urban land-use change in eastern China on the East Asian subtropical monsoon (EASTM) is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1. Comparison of the results between the urban expansion and reference experiments shows that with the urban expansion, the land surface energy balance alters: surface net radiation and sensible heat fluxes enhance while the latent heat fluxes reduce. As a result, a significant increase in surface air temperature over eastern China is detected. The urban land-use change contributes to a change in the zonal land-sea temperature difference (LSTD), leading to a delay in the time when LSTD changes from positive to negative, and vice versa. Additionally, the onset and retreat dates of the EASTM are also delayed. Meanwhile, the rise in surface air temperature leads to formation of abnormal northerly air flows, which may be the reason for the slower northward movement of the EASTM and a more southward location of its northern boundary.     

COSMIC掩星资料反演青藏高原大气廓线与探空观测的对比分析

利用青藏高原地区COSMIC掩星资料反演的大气湿廓线Wet Prf数据和8个站点的探空数据,分析了COSMIC反演大气廓线和可降水量与探空观测的偏差,并考查了偏差随高度的变化特征。结果显示:(1)COSMIC反演的温度、压强和水汽压廓线与探空观测具有很好的正相关;与探空观测相比,COSMIC的温度、压强和水汽压的偏差为-0.2℃、1.7 h Pa和0 h Pa,均方差为1.8℃、1.6 h Pa和0.4 h Pa;COSMIC反演大气廓线与探空观测的偏差基本上在大气低层较大,然后随高度增加而减小。(2)COSMIC反演的可降水量与探空观测正相关较好;COSMIC反演的可降水量低于探空观测,两者的偏差为-5.0 mm,均方差为5.7 mm;两者的负偏差在大气低层最明显。(3)探空观测在近地层的不稳定性和COSMIC反演方法中背景模式在青藏高原地区描述大气状态的能力有限,是造成COSMIC反演大气廓线和探空观测的偏差在近地层较大的主要原因;COSMIC观测的折射率偏小导致其反演的可降水量偏低。     

Remote sensing of human beings – a perspective from nighttime light

City lights, fishing boats, and oil fields are the major sources of nighttime lights, therefore the nighttime light images provide a unique source to map human beings and their activities from outer space. While most of the scholars focused on application of nighttime light remote sensing in urbanization and regional development, the actual fields are much wider. This paper summarized the applications of nighttime light remote sensing into fields such as the estimation of socioeconomic parameters, monitoring urbanization, evaluation of important events, analyzing light pollution, fishery, etc. For estimation of socioeconomic parameters, the most promising progress is that Gross Domestic Product and its growth rate have been estimated with statistical data and nighttime light data using econometric models. For monitoring urbanization, urban area and its dynamics can be extracted using different classification methods, and spatial analysis has been employed to map urban agglomeration. As sharp changes of nighttime light are associated with important socioeconomic events, the images have been used to evaluate humanitarian disasters, especially in the current Syrian and Iraqi wars. Light pollution is another hotspot of nighttime light application, as the night light is related to some diseases and abnormal behavior of animals, and the nighttime light images can provide light pollution information on large scales so that it is much easier to analyze the effects of light pollutions. In each field, we listed typical cases of the applications. At last, future studies of nighttime light remote sensing have been predicted.     

社交媒体地理大数据的旅游景点热度分析

针对大数据时代,蕴含地理位置信息的社交媒体(Social Media)数据规模正呈爆炸性增长,通过对这类时空数据的挖掘可以整合用户的群体智慧,发现热门景点或线路,为用户提供更加精细的旅行服务。该文基于2005—2016年Flickr图片分享网站中用户分享的带地理标签的图片信息,通过空间聚类以及文本语义挖掘的方法对北京市的热门景点进行了提取。此外,本文还利用北京市的历史天气信息与用户图片信息进行融合,分析在不同时间、不同天气情景下,不同景点的热度分布规律,可以为旅行爱好者提供热门景点在多种视角下的游览规律。     

中国主要城市群新增制造业用地特征及城镇体系耦合分析

为探索中国典型城市群新增制造业用地结构与布局状况、发展及功能分工特征,本文基于中国土地市场网2009-2013年制造业用地出让数据,通过区位熵、耦合分析、相关分析等方法,分析了长三角、珠三角、京津冀、长江中游和成渝5个典型城市群新增制造业用地分布特征以及城镇体系耦合特征差异。结果表明：①各城市群新增制造业用地差异显著。长三角、珠三角城市群新增制造业发展较为均衡;京津冀、长江中游和成渝城市群发展协调性仍有待提升。②新增制造业各行业用地在5个城市群中均呈现出一定的集聚特征,其中原材料等传统产业倾向布局在城市群边缘区及城市低等级区;电子信息产业等新兴产业多集中在核心城市及高等级区。③各城市群内部新增制造业用地市场化机制作用较为充分,地价呈现随等级提升而递增的趋势;城市群核心区市场活跃度较低而骨干区较高。相关结论可为城市群产业布局调整、优化以及制定不同等级区域协调发展战略提供参考。     

Error sensitivity analysis in 10–30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

Extended range forecasting of 10–30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10–30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10^–6–10^–2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10^–1–2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10^–2–10^–1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect (m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.     

Statistical modeling of CMIP5 projected changes in extreme wet spells over China in the late 21st century

The observed intensity, frequency, and duration (IFD) of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold (the 95th percentile), and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model (WSM) and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961–2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile–quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.