Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO₂ concentration_, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO₂ emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021–2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961–1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021–2040) over the baseline (1961–1990) varies from +3.4 to ?14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.     

Levee failure mechanisms during the extreme rainfall event: a case study in Southern Taiwan

Extreme weather has recently caused many disasters worldwide. In August 8, 2009, Southern Taiwan suffered from serious floods during Typhoon Morakot. In this extreme rainfall event, the Chiuliao first levee in the Laonong River basin experienced catastrophic failure. Therefore, this study focuses on the levee failure mechanisms based on variations in levee water levels. Specifically, this study investigates four mechanisms based on limit state equilibrium. The first mechanism involves the slope stability under hydrostatic conditions at various water levels. The results of this analysis show that the levee cannot fail under this mechanism. The second mechanism involves the levee slope stability with steady-state seepage. Because the water levels are different on the protected and flood sides, the water recedes much faster on the flood side than the protected side. Based on this analysis, the levee slope might fail when the water level at the protected side is close to the top of levee and the water level at the flood side starts to recede. The third and fourth mechanisms involve the levee foundation failure in terms of sliding and overturning failure. The results of this study indicate that the levee foundation is more prone to sliding failure than overturning failure. Based on these results, this study shows that the levee failed when the water level at the protected side neared the top of levee while the water level at flood side started to recede. At this moment, the levee may fail because of both the slope failure with seepage and sliding failure of the levee foundation.     

秦岭中部山地落叶阔叶林超级垂直带的发现与意义

山地垂直带谱是气候和植被水平地带变化和更替的缩影,垂直带的带幅、带间过渡方式、带内结构和垂直带组合方式都表现出高度的异质性和复杂性。本文发现在中国南北过渡带中部太白山发育了世界上最宽的山地垂直带——山地落叶阔叶林垂直带。该垂直带从基带到典型垂直带再到先锋性垂直带皆为山地落叶阔叶林,3种本来可以独立存在的垂直带,连续分布形成了包含3个栎林亚带、2个桦林亚带的“三层五亚带”超级垂直带,远远超过正常情况下山地垂直带1000 m的阈值,且其上限达到了海拔2800 m。它的形成与秦岭所处的过渡性地理位置、秦岭中部垂直带谱的完整性、丰富的落叶木本植物种群及其形成的强大群落竞争优势等因素紧密相关。超级垂直带的发现有多方面的意义：它是中国南北过渡带又一重要的标志性自然地理特征;它表明山地垂直带在特殊的山地环境中可以具有非常复杂的内部结构和宽大带幅,这扩展了我们对山地垂直带谱结构及机理认识的广度,对于创建山地垂直带谱结构理论具有十分重要的意义;超级垂直带的发现,也说明中国南北过渡带还有很多科学内容有待我们去探索和发现,希望本文能起到抛砖引玉的作用,引起学界对超级垂直带形成的气候和生物多样性因素、地理过渡带的结构和生态效应等重大问题进行深入研究。     

鄱阳湖沙地沉积物粒度特征及其影响因素北大核心CSCD

鄱阳湖沙地是亚热带湿润区典型风沙化土地,土地沙化问题严峻。鄱阳湖沙地研究多在小范围开展,研究意义有限,应在多处进行沙地粒度比对研究。选取庐山市、都昌县、永修县和南昌市新建区等沙地样品57个,分析其粒度特征。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖沙地主要由中沙、细沙和粗沙组成,三者总含量超90%;Mz均值为1.79Φ,分选较差,呈正偏和尖锐分布;(2)鄱阳湖沙地不同土地类型沉积物表层(0-5 cm)与20-40 cm深度粒度特征存在一定差异,固定沙丘、半固定沙丘、流动沙丘和河滩表层比20-40 cm深度粒径大,但流动沙丘和湿地草滩表层分选优于20-40 cm深度;湿地草滩和河滩优势粒级含量和粒度参数有别于沙丘;(3)鄱阳湖沙地固定沙丘、半固定沙丘和流动沙丘为风成沉积;河滩以河流作用为主,风蚀为辅;湿地草滩是在风力和水动力共同作用下形成的。鄱阳湖沙地沿盛行风向从南到北S、SK、K依次减小,风沙运动多以两跳一悬式为主,以就地起沙为主,河滩湖滩作为补充。     

华南暖区暴雨中一次飑线的中尺度分析

利用地面加密观测资料、高空观测资料、多普勒雷达观测和雷达风场反演资料等,分析造成2010年5月6—7日华南暴雨中一次飑线的演变过程及三维结构特征。结果表明:(1)此次飑线过程发生于200 hPa高空辐散区、500 hPa高空槽后、地面准静止锋锋前暖区内,850 hPa飑线北侧为切变线,东南侧存在低空急流,中低层为中等强度垂直风切变。(2)该飑线系统初始对流单体由西风受广西大瑶山脉地形阻挡而触发。发展过程中两广交界处不断生成新单体,东移发展并入对流带,单体发展及对流带的形成与地面中尺度辐合线关系密切。(3)该飑线在形成过程中存在对流带与对流单体的锢囚过程,锢囚过程中地面辐合线及中层中气旋起组织作用,至盛期对流带东段出现弓形回波结构。强降水拖曳、雨滴蒸发冷却增强下沉气流及中层冷空气入流,造成地面冷池及后部辐散出流,促进弓形回波发展。(4)成熟期飑线系统包含弓形回波、冷池及不明显的层状云区,三维结构特征与经典飑线类似,但无涡旋对,雷暴高压也不明显。     

潍坊北部海咸水入侵特征及现状评价

潍坊北部是我国典型的海咸水入侵区,通过资料收集、海咸水入侵专项调查、地质环境监测与实验、样品分析测试和室内综合分析研究,基本查清了海咸水入侵发展及演化历史。工作区海咸水入侵发展过程可划分为发生和发展、快速发展、慢速发展和稳定发展4个阶段,目前处于稳定发展期。利用2012年水质测试结果,选取Cl-、矿化度、SO2-4,rHCO-3/rCl-,K+等指标作为评价因子,运用模糊数学的方法,对潍坊北部海(咸)水入侵区入侵程度的现状做出综合评价;结合工作区海咸水入侵的特征和现状,针对性地提出了今后的防治重点和对策。     

Simulation of groundwater dynamics in the North China Plain by coupled hydrology and agricultural models

We simulated the effects of irrigation on groundwater flow dynamics in the North China Plain by coupling the NIES Integrated Catchment‐based Ecohydrology (NICE) model with DSSAT‐wheat and DSSAT‐maize, two agricultural models. This combined model (NICE‐AGR) was applied to the Hai River catchment and the lower reach of the Yellow River (530 km wide by 840 km long) at a resolution of 5 km. It reproduced excellently the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and crop production of summer maize and winter wheat, correctly estimating crop water use. So, the spatial distribution of crop water use was reasonably estimated at daily steps in the simulation area. In particular, NICE‐AGR reproduced groundwater levels better than the use of statistical water use data. This indicates that NICE‐AGR does not need detailed statistical data on water use, making it very powerful for evaluating and estimating the water dynamics of catchments with little statistical data on seasonal water use. Furthermore, the simulation reproduced the spatial distribution of groundwater level in 1987 and 1988 in the Hebei Plain, showing a major reduction of groundwater level due mainly to overpumping for irrigation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards a rapid assessment of highway slope disasters by using multidisciplinary techniques

Mega-earthquakes and extreme climate events accompanied by intrinsic fragile geology lead to numerous landslides along mountain highways in Taiwan, causing enormous life and economic losses. In this study, a system for rapid slope disaster information integration and assessment is proposed with the aim of providing information on landslide occurrence, failure mechanisms, and subsequent landslide-affected areas to the highway authority rapidly. The functionality of the proposed system is deployed into three units: (1) geohazard rapid report (GeoPORT I), (2) multidisciplinary geological survey report (GeoPORT II), and (3) site-specific landslide simulation report (GeoPORT III). After landslide occurrence, the seismology-based monitoring network rapidly provides the initial slope disaster information, including preliminary location, event magnitude, earthquake activity, and source dynamics, within an hour. Within 3 days of the landslide, a multidisciplinary geological survey is conducted to collect high-precision topographical, geological, and remote-sensing data to determine the possible failure mechanism. After integrating the aforementioned information, a full-scale three-dimensional landslide simulation based on the discrete element method is performed within 10 days to reveal the failure process and to identify the areas potentially affected by subsequent disasters through scenario modeling. Overall, the proposed system can promptly provide comprehensive and objective information to relevant authorities after the event occurrence for hazard assessment. The proposed system was validated using a landslide event in the Central Cross-Island Highway of Taiwan.

     

DEM studies on the effect of particle breakage on the critical state behaviours of granular soils under undrained shear conditions

Acta Geotechnica - A number of discrete element analyses of undrained triaxial shear tests on crushable assemblies are performed using 3-dimensional particle flow code (PFC3D). The undrained shear...