Automated system for generalization of streamgage major hydrologic characteristics over a long-term period

A new automated system of engineering hydrologic calculations is considered. It is intended for generalization of hydrologic observations data over a long-term period and for practical use in projecting and design, as well as when solving various hydrological problems of engineering hydrology. Great attention is paid: to computation of probability curves from heterogeneous hydrometric observations data and accounting for historical information about record values of hydrologic characteristics; to estimation of random and systematic errors of sample parameters determination and of design quantiles, what is of most importance. The technique being the base of automated system completely corresponds to the regulatory document The Code of Rules (SP) 33-101-2003 “Determination of Major Design Hydrologic Characteristics.”     

Crystal chemistry of Fe3+-bearing (Mg,Fe)SiO3 perovskite: a single-crystal X-ray diffraction study

Magnesium silicate perovskite is the predominant phase in the Earth’s lower mantle, and it is well known that incorporation of iron has a strong effect on its crystal structure and physical properties. To constrain the crystal chemistry of (Mg, Fe)SiO₃ perovskite more accurately, we synthesized single crystals of Mg_0.946(17)Fe_0.056(12)Si_0.997(16)O₃ perovskite at 26 GPa and 2,073 K using a multianvil press and investigated its crystal structure, oxidation state and iron-site occupancy using single-crystal X-ray diffraction and energy-domain Synchrotron Mössbauer Source spectroscopy. Single-crystal refinements indicate that all iron (Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺) substitutes on the A-site only, where \( {\text{Fe}}^{ 3+ } /\Upsigma {\text{Fe}}\sim 20\,\% \) based on Mössbauer spectroscopy. Charge balance likely occurs through a small number of cation vacancies on either the A- or the B-site. The octahedral tilt angle (Φ) calculated for our sample from the refined atomic coordinates is 20.3°, which is 2° higher than the value calculated from the unit-cell parameters (a = 4.7877 Å, b = 4.9480 Å, c = 6.915 Å) which assumes undistorted octahedra. A compilation of all available single-crystal data (atomic coordinates) for (Mg, Fe)(Si, Al)O₃ perovskite from the literature shows a smooth increase of Φ with composition that is independent of the nature of cation substitution (e.g., \( {\text{Mg}}^{ 2+ } - {\text{Fe}}^{ 2+ } \) or \( {\text{Mg}}^{ 2+ } {\text{Si}}^{ 4+ } - {\text{Fe}}^{ 3+ } {\text{Al}}^{ 3+ } \) substitution mechanism), contrary to previous observations based on unit-cell parameter calculations.     

Comparative analysis of land,marine, and satellite observations of methane in the lower Atmosphere in the Russian Arctic under conditions of climate change

Land, marine, and satellite observations have been used to study changes in methane concentrations in the lower atmosphere during the warm months of the year (July through October) in Arctic regions having different potentials for methane production. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data for 2002–2013 are used to explore the interplay between local methane sources in the terrestrial region of the Eurasian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf over the warm period of the year. Linear trends in atmospheric methane concentrations over different Arctic regions are calculated, and a hypothesis of the relation of concentration variations to climatic parameters is tested. The combination of land, marine, and satellite observation is used to develop a conceptual model of the atmospheric methane field in the terrestrial part of the Russian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf. It is shown that the modern methane growth rate in the Arctic does not exceed the Northern Hemisphere mean. It is concluded that the methane emission in the Arctic has little effect on global climate compared to other factors.     

Palaeolimnological evidence for recent climatic change in lakes from the northern Urals, arctic Russia

The recent sediments from two deep arctic lakes, Mitrofanovskoe and Vanuk-ty, situated in the permafrost belt within the Bolshezemelskaya Tundra in the northern Ural region, were studied for diatoms, chironomids, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and stable lead isotopes. The magnitudes and rates-of-change in diatom and chironomid assemblages were numerically estimated. Instrumental climate records were used to assess statistically the amount of variance in diatom and chironomid data explained by temperature. August and September air temperatures have a statistically significant effect on diatom composition at both lakes. At Mitrofanovskoe Lake, major compositional changes in diatom and chironomid assemblages occurred at the turn of the 20th century and might be related to the regional increase in temperature. Chironomid-inferred air temperature also increased by approximately 1 °C since the early 1900s. At both lakes diatom compositional changes, coincident with the increase in June and September temperatures, also occurred in the late 1960s. These compositional changes are correlated with the increase in diatom production, sediment organic content and diatom species richness, and are likely to be a diatom response to the lengthening of the growing season. These changes are also correlated with the circum-Arctic temperature increase from the 1960s. A chironomid response to the late 1960s temperature increase was less pronounced at both lakes. Pollution levels are relatively low and pollution history is unrelated to ecological changes. Both lead isotopes and spheroidal carbonaceous particles show a clear atmospheric pollution signal, peaking in the 1980s.     

The 1994 Shikotan earthquake tsunamis

The 1994 Shikotan earthquake was one of the greatest earthquakes in recent years with a magnitude ofM _s 8.0. A tsunami survey was conducted by Russian and U.S. geophysicists from October 16–30, 1994, less than two weeks after the earthquake. The survey results and a numerical hindcast simulation are reported. Tsunami focusing effect at locations supposedly sheltered by the island chain is discussed. Based on the obtained data, tsunamis which attacked Shikotan Island are characterized as long waves (the order of 10–20 min wave period) with a positive leading wave. Possible consequences of the positive leading wave form are discussed in relation to the observed minimal destruction of beach vegetation and relatively small transport of marine sediment onto the shore. The high-quality tide-gage record in Malokurilskaya Bay indicates the occurrence of a 53 cm subsidence at the site.     

Numerical Simulations of Tsunami Waves and Currents for Southern Vancouver Island from a Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake

The 1700 great Cascadia earthquake (M = 9) generated widespread tsunami waves that affected the entire Pacific Ocean and caused damage as distant as Japan. Similar catastrophic waves may be generated by a future Cascadia megathrust earthquake. We use three rupture scenarios for this earthquake in numerical experiments to study propagation of tsunami waves off the west coast of North America and to predict tsunami heights and currents in several bays and harbours on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, including Ucluelet, located on the west coast of the island, and Victoria and Esquimalt harbours inside Juan de Fuca Strait. The earthquake scenarios are: an 1100-km long rupture over the entire length of the subduction zone and separate ruptures of its northern or southern segments. As expected, the southern earthquake scenario has a limited effect over most of the Vancouver Island coast, with waves in the harbours not exceeding 1 m. The other two scenarios produce large tsunami waves, higher than 16 m at one location near Ucluelet and over 4 m inside Esquimalt and Victoria harbours, and very strong currents that reach 17 m/s in narrow channels and near headlands. Because the assumed rupture scenarios are based on a previous earthquake, direct use of the model results to estimate the effect of a future earthquake requires appropriate qualification.     

First results on determination of cosmogenic 36Cl in limestone from the Yenicekale Complex in the Hittite capital of Hattusha (Turkey)

We have measured ³⁶Cl in three rock surfaces of the Yenicekale building complex in Hattusha (Bo?azköy, Turkey). Hattusha was the capital of Hittite Empire which lasted from about 1650/1600 to 1200 BC. At Yenicekale, Hittite masons flattened the summit of an outcropping limestone knoll to form an artificial platform as the foundation for a building. Next they built a circuit wall along the lateral precipices of the flattened bedrock platform. We took one sample from the limestone bedrock platform and two samples from limestone building blocks of the circuit wall for cosmogenic ³⁶Cl analysis. Calculated exposure ages are 20 ± 1 ka for the sample from the bedrock platform and 24 ± 1 ka and 52 ± 2 ka for the circuit wall blocks. These exposure ages are significantly older than the age expected based on the estimated time of construction between 3.2 ka and 3.7 ka. We conclude that the sampled surfaces contain significant inherited cosmogenic ³⁶Cl. We cannot directly determine exposure ages for the building complex based on these three samples. On the other hand we may use the measured concentrations to determine how much of the rock was removed from the platform during flattening. To this end we modeled the variation of ³⁶Cl production with depth at Yenicekale using the results from the bedrock sample. We conclude that the Hittite masons removed only around 3 m from top of the limestone block. This means that the volume of rock removed from the bedrock platform is significantly less than the volume in the circuit wall atop the platform. They did not gain enough rock from this flattening to make the building. In agreement with this, the first results of our detailed microfacies analysis indicate that many of the building blocks are not of the same facies as the underlying limestone and must have been quarried elsewhere. Although we were not able to exposure date the Yenicekale complex due to the presence of inherited ³⁶Cl, our data suggest that Hittite masons excavated (most of) the building stones not at Yenicekale, but in quarries outside of Hattusha and then transported them to the construction site. These quarries have not yet been identified.     

Value of Geologically Derived Features in Machine Learning Facies Classification

Mathematical Geosciences - The aim of this work is to demonstrate how geologically interpretative features can improve machine learning facies classification with uncertainty assessment. Manual...     

Equilibria in the gravitational field of a triangular body

The existence, stability and bifurcation analysis is performed for equilibria of a material point in the gravitational field of three homogeneous penetrable balls fixed in absolute frame. The radii of the balls are assumed finite. In the case when the mass distribution admits a symmetry axis, analytic expressions are written out, allowing one to investigate the properties of equilibrium positions located both on the symmetry axis and outside it. The stability of solutions is studied; domains with different instability degree are described.