Simultaneous identification of parameter,initial condition,and boundary condition in groundwater modelling

In this paper, we perform an inverse method to simultaneously estimate aquifer parameters, initial condition, and boundary conditions in groundwater modelling. The parameter estimation is extended to a complete inverse problem that makes the calibrated groundwater flow model more realistic. The adjoint state method, the gradient search method, and the least square error algorithm are combined to build the optimization procedure. Horizontal two‐dimensional groundwater flow in a confined aquifer is exemplified to demonstrate the correlation between unknowns, the contribution of observation, as well as the suitability of applying the inverse method. The correlation analysis shows the connection between storage coefficient and initial condition. Besides, transmissivity and boundary conditions are also highly correlated. More observations at different location and time are necessary to provide sufficient information. A time series of unsteady head is requested for estimation of storage coefficient and initial condition. Observation near boundary is very effective for boundary condition estimation. The observation at pumping well mostly contributes to the estimation of transmissivity. According to all observations, it is possible to identify parameters, initial condition, and boundary condition simultaneously. Furthermore, the results not only illustrate the traditional assumption of known boundary condition but also initial condition, which may cause an incorrect estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114001601

Data from a migmatised metapelite raft enclosed within charnockite provide quantitative constraints on the pressure-temperature-time[P-T-t) evolution of the Nagercoil Block at the southernmost tip of peninsular India.An inferred peak metamorphic assemblage of garnet,K-feldspar.sillimanite,plagioclase,magnetite,ilmenite,spinel and melt is consistent with peak metamorphic pressures of 6-8 kbar and temperatures in excess of 900℃.Subsequent growth of cordierite and biotite record high-temperature retrograde decompression to around 5 kbar and 800 C.SHRIMP U-Pb dating of magmatic zircon cores suggests that the sedimentary protoliths were in part derived from felsic igneous rocks with Palaeoproterozoic crystallisation ages.New growth of metamorphic zircon on the rims of detrital grains constrains the onset of melt crystallisation,and the minimum age of the metamorphic peak,to around560 Ma.The data suggest two stages of monazite growth.The first generation of REE-enriched monazite grew during partial melting along the prograde path at around 570 Ma via the incongruent breakdown of apatite.Relatively REE-depleted rims,which have a pronounced negative europium anomaly,grew during melt crystallisation along the retrograde path at around 535 Ma.Our data show the rocks remained at suprasolidus temperatures for at least 35 million years and probably much longer,supporting a long-lived high-grade metamorphic history.The metamorphic conditions,timing and duration of the implied clockwise P-T-t path are similar to that previously established for other regions in peninsular India during the Ediacaran to Cambrian assembly of that part of the Gondwanan supercontinent.     

The Northwest Africa (NWA) 5790 meteorite: A mesostasis‐rich nakhlite with little or no Martian aqueous alteration

Northwest Africa (NWA) 5790 is the most recently discovered member of the nakhlite group. Its mineralogy differs from the other nakhlites with a high abundance mesostasis (38.1 ± 3.6 vol%) and scarcity of olivine (4.0 ± 2.2 vol%). Furthermore, zoning of augite phenocrysts, and other petrographic and chemical characteristics suggest that NWA 5790 samples the chilled margin of its parent lava flow/sill. NWA 5790 contains calcite and rare clay minerals that are evidence for its exposure to liquid water. The calcite forms a cement to coatings of dust on the outer surface of the find and extends into the interior of the meteorite within veins. The presence of microbial remains within the coating confirms that the dust and its carbonate cement are terrestrial in origin, consistent with the carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the calcite. The clay minerals are finely crystalline and comprise ~0.003 vol% of the meteorite. δD values of the clay minerals range from ?212 ± 109‰ to ?96 ± 132‰, and cannot be used to distinguish between a terrestrial or Martian origin. As petrographic results are also not definitive, we conclude that secondary minerals produced by Martian groundwaters are at best very rare within NWA 5790. The meteorite has therefore sampled a region of the lava flow/sill with little or no exposure to the aqueous solutions that altered other nakhlites. This isolation could relate to the scarcity of olivine in NWA 5790 because dissolution of olivine in other nakhlites by Martian groundwaters enhanced their porosity and permeability, and provided solutes for secondary minerals.     

Tropical Cyclone Size Change under Ocean Warming and Associated Responses of Tropical Cyclone Destructiveness: Idealized Experiments

The power dissipation index (PDI), which is defined as the sum of the cube of tropical cyclone (TC) maximum wind speed during TC lifetime, is widely used to estimate the TC destructive potential. However, due to the lack of high-resolution observations, little attention has been paid to the contribution of TC size change to TC destructive potential in response to ocean warming. In this study, sensitivity experiments are performed by using the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the responses of TC size and TC destructive potential to prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) increase under the present climate condition. The results show that TC size increases with the ocean warming. Possible reasons for TC size change are investigated with a focus on the outer air-sea moisture difference (ASMD). As SST increases, ASMD in the outer zone of the TC is larger than that in the inner zone, which increases the surface entropy flux (SEF) of the outer zone. This change in the radial distribution of SEF causes the increase of tangential wind in the outer zone, which further increases SEF, resulting in a positive feedback between outer-zone SEF and outer-zone tangential wind. This feedback leads to the increase of the radius of gale-force wind, leading to the expansion of TC size. Moreover, to estimate the contribution of TC size change to TC destructiveness, we calculate TC size-dependent destructive potential (PDS) as the storm size information is available in the model outputs, as well as PDI that does not consider the effect of TC size change. We find that PDS increases exponentially as SST increases from 1 to 4°C, while PDI increases linearly; hence the former is soon much greater than the latter. This suggests that the growth effect of TC size cannot be ignored in estimating destructiveness under ocean warming.     

Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Circulation Anomalies Associated with Persistent Rainy Days in 2018/2019 Winter in Shanghai,China

Shanghai experienced the longest rainy days in 2018/2019 winter since 1988. The physical cause of such an unusual climate condition was investigated through the diagnosis of observational data. From a seasonal perspective, a long persistent rainy winter was often associated with an El Niño condition in the equatorial Pacific. This abnormal oceanic condition induces a remote teleconnection pattern with pronounced low-level southerly anomalies over East China. The wind anomalies transported moisture from tropical oceans and caused persistent rainfall in East Asia. Meanwhile, the local rainfall time series exhibited a strong quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). Three persistent rainy events were identified in the 2018/2019 winter and they all occurred during the active phase of the QBWO. The first two events were associated with a low pressure anomaly west of Shanghai. Southerly anomalies associated with the low pressure system advected high mean moisture into central eastern China, leading to the persistent rainfall there. The third event was associated with a high pressure anomaly in lower troposphere to the east of Shanghai, which induced anomalous southerlies to its west, favoring the occurrence of rainfall in Shanghai. The result suggests the importance of high-frequency variability in affecting seasonal rainfall anomalies.     

时空投影模型(STPM)的次季节至季节(S2S)预测应用进展

随着数值天气预报技术和季节动力预报系统的发展,短期天气预报及长期气候预测的能力持续提高,然而介于两者之间的次季节至季节(S2S,两周至三个月)预测技巧偏低,成为当今气象学界和业务服务的难题。南京信息工程大学国家特聘专家李天明教授团队于2012年研发了基于时空投影技术的统计预报模型(STPM),成功地对中国大陆降水和气温距平,以及区域极端降水、夏季高温、冬季低温和西太平洋台风群发事件等高影响天气进行提前10~30 d的预报,并在国家气候中心及多个省份开展了业务应用。STPM也成功应用于台湾春雨预报、南海季风爆发和ENSO预测等季节至年际变化的预测。本文对S2S预测的理论基础、STPM的发展和应用进行了完整的介绍,并讨论了S2S预测业务中所面临的挑战和未来展望。     

Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations

A systematic analysis of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream latitude and wind speed from 52 model integrations, taken from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3, is carried out and compared to results obtained from the ERA-40 reanalyses. We consider here a control simulation, twentieth century simulation, and two time periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from a twenty-first century, high-emission A2 forced simulation. The jet wind speed seasonality is found to be similar between the twentieth century simulations and the ERA-40 reanalyses and also between the control and forced simulations although nearly half of the models overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. A systematic equatorward bias of the models jet latitude seasonality, by up to 7°, is observed, and models additionally overestimate the seasonal cycle of jet latitude about the mean, with the majority of the models showing equatorward and poleward biases during the cold and warm seasons respectively. A main finding of this work is that no GCM under any forcing scenario considered here is able to simulate the trimodal behaviour of the observed jet latitude distribution. The models suffer from serious problems in the structure of jet variability, rather than just quantitiative errors in the statistical moments.