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101.
Anil Misra Lance A. Roberts Steven M. Levorson 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2007,25(1):65-77
Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance
along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential
equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite
difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled
shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous
compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be
independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference
technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained)
and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors
suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts. 相似文献
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John Shaw Mimi J. Hill Steven J. Openshaw 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2001,190(3-4):103-109
The new microwave palaeointensity technique has been used to investigate samples from the Martian meteorite Nakhla. This technique is a promising new way to obtain absolute palaeointensity information regarding the ancient Martian magnetic field as recorded by the Martian meteorites. Assuming that a part of the magnetic remanence is of thermal origin and originating on Mars the two samples studied yield estimates of 4 μT for the Martian magnetic field at 1.35 Ga. 相似文献
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Nancy K. Adams Shanaka L. de Silva Stephen Self Guido Salas Steven Schubring Jason L. Permenter Kendra Arbesman 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2001,62(8):493-518
Volcán Huaynaputina is a group of four vents located at 16°36'S, 70°51'W in southern Peru that produced one of the largest eruptions of historical times when ~11 km3 of magma was erupted during the period 19 February to 6 March 1600. The main eruptive vents are located at 4200 m within an erosion-modified amphitheater of a significantly older stratovolcano. The eruption proceeded in three stages. Stage I was an ~20-h sustained plinian eruption on 19-20 February that produced an extensive dacite pumice fall deposit (magma volume ~2.6 km3). Throughout medial-distal and distal parts of the dispersal area, a fine-grained plinian ashfall unit overlies the pumice fall deposit. This very widespread ash (magma volume ~6.2 km3) has been recognized in Antarctic ice cores. A short period of quiescence allowed local erosion of the uppermost stage-I deposits and was followed by renewed but intermittent explosive activity between 22 and 26 February (stage II). This activity resulted in intercalated pyroclastic flow and pumice fall deposits (~1 km3). The flow deposits are valley confined, whereas associated co-ignimbrite ash fall is found overlying the plinian ash deposit. Following another period of quiescence, vulcanian-type explosions of stage III commenced on 28 February and produced crudely bedded ash, lapilli, and bombs of dense dacite (~1 km3). Activity ceased on 6 March. Compositions erupted are predominantly high-K dacites with a phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase>hornblende>biotite>Fe-Ti oxides-apatite. Major elements are broadly similar in all three stages, but there are a few important differences. Stage-I pumice has less evolved glass compositions (~73% SiO2), lower crystal contents (17-20%), lower density (1.0-1.3 g/cm3), and phase equilibria suggest higher temperature and volatile contents. Stage-II and stage-III juvenile clasts have more evolved glass (~76% SiO2) compositions, higher crystal contents (25-35%), higher densities (up to 2.2 g/cm3), and lower temperature and volatile contents. All juvenile clasts show mineralogical evidence for thermal disequilibrium. Inflections on a plot of log thickness vs area1/2 for the fall deposits suggest that the pumice fall and the plinian ash fall were dispersed under different conditions and may have been derived from different parts of the eruption column system. The ash appears to have been dispersed mainly from the uppermost parts of the umbrella cloud by upper-level winds, whereas the pumice fall may have been derived from the lower parts of the umbrella cloud and vertical part of the eruption column and transported by a lower-altitude wind field. Thickness half distances and clast half distances for the pumice fall deposit suggests a column neutral buoyancy height of 24-32 km and a total column height of 34-46 km. The estimated mass discharge rate for the ~20-h-long stage-I eruption is 2.4᎒8 kg/s and the volumetric discharge rate is ~3.6᎒5 m3/s. The pumice fall deposit has a dispersal index (Hildreth and Drake 1992) of 4.4, and its index of fragmentation is at least 89%, reflecting the dominant volume of fines produced. Of the 11 km3 total volume of dacite magma erupted in 1600, approximately 85% was evacuated during stage 1. The three main vents range in size from ~70 to ~400 m. Alignment of these vents and a late-stage dyke parallel to the NNW-SSE trend defined by older volcanics suggest that the eruption initiated along a fissure that developed along pre-existing weaknesses. During stage I this fissure evolved into a large flared vent, vent 2, with a diameter of approximately 400 m. This vent was active throughout stage II, at the end of which a dome was emplaced within it. During stage III this dome was eviscerated forming the youngest vent in the group, vent 3. A minor extra-amphitheater vent was produced during the final event of the eruptive sequence. Recharge may have induced magma to rise away from a deep zone of magma generation and storage. Subsequently, vesiculation in the rising magma batch, possibly enhanced by interaction with an ancient hydrothermal system, triggered and fueled the sustained Plinian eruption of stage I. A lower volatile content in the stage-II and stage-III magma led to transitional column behavior and pyroclastic flow generation in stage II. Continued magma uprise led to emplacement of a dome which was subsequently destroyed during stage III. No caldera collapse occurred because no shallow magma chamber developed beneath this volcano. 相似文献
106.
Richard E. Brazier Keith J. Beven Steven G. Anthony John S. Rowan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(12):1333-1352
An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A case study was conducted on the potential impacts of climate change on fish habitat in a southeastern reservoir. A reservoir water quality model and one year of baseline meteorologic, hydrologic, and inflow water quality input were used to simulate current reservoir water quality. Total adult striped bass habitat, defined by specific quantitative temperature and dissolved oxygen criteria, was simulated. Daily reservoir volumes with optimal, suboptimal, and unsuitable temperature and DO were predicted for the year. Output from recent runs of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), in which atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been doubled, was then used to adjust the baseline inputs to the water quality model. New sets of input data were created for two grid cells for each of three GCMs. All six climate scenarios are predicted to cause overall declines in the available summer striped bass habitat, mostly due to lake water temperatures exceeding striped bass tolerance levels. These predictions are believed to result from the consensus among GCM scenarios that air temperatures and humidity will rise, and the sensitivity of the reservoir model to these parameters. The reservoir model was found to be a promising tool for examining potential climate-change impacts. Some of the assumptions required to apply GCM output to the reservoir model, however, illustrate the problems in using large-scale gridcell output to assess small-scale impacts. 相似文献