Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.     

甘肃东海金矿床地球化学特征

东海金矿床位于甘肃北山重要的Au，Ag多金属成矿带上，具长期活动特征的花牛山-察客尔呼都格压扭性断裂横贯成矿带，成矿的有利位置为大断裂及次一级断层、层间裂隙(破碎蚀变带，局部夹有石英脉)，断裂控矿特征十分明显。原生晕以亲硫元素组合为主，亦有亲氧元素。金矿石以硫化物型为主，氧化物型次之，其元素组合以成矿元素Au，Ag，Pb，Zn和亲硫元素Cu，Sb，Mo为主，也有亲氧元素W，Sn。具有深部断裂剪切、挤压带地球化学元素组合特征。     

Estimating the elastic parameters of anisotropic media using a joint inversion of P-wave and SV-wave traveltime error

A method is presented to estimate the elastic parameters and thickness of media that are locally laterally homogeneous using P‐wave and vertically polarized shear‐wave (SV‐wave) data. This method is a ‘layer‐stripping’ technique, and it uses many aspects of common focal point (CFP) technology. For each layer, a focusing operator is computed using a model of the elastic parameters with which a CFP gather can be constructed using the seismic data. Assuming local homogeneity, the resulting differential time shifts (DTSs) represent error in the model due to anisotropy and error in thickness. In the (τ?p) domain, DTSs are traveltimes Δτ that connect error in layer thickness z, vertical slowness q, and ray parameter p. Series expansion is used to linearize Δτ with respect to error in the elastic parameters and thickness, and least‐squares inversion is used to update the model. For stability, joint inversion of P and SV data is employed and, as pure SV data are relatively rare, the use of mode‐converted (PSV) data to represent SV in the joint inversion is proposed. Analytic and synthetic examples are used to demonstrate the utility and practicality of this inversion.     

一次强风暴的垂直环境特征数值模拟分析

应用MM 5模式对东北冷涡诱发的 2 0 0 2年 7月 1 2日强风暴进行了数值模拟 ,较成功地模拟出中尺度强对流风暴。发现冷涡后部中层干冷空气绝热下沉是东北冷涡 70 0hPa附近干暖盖形成和维持的重要机制 ,而低层暖湿气流爬升及干暖盖的抑制作用是东北冷涡强对流不稳定能量积累的重要机制。风暴发生前持续的低层西南风到中层西北风的风垂直切变产生的差动平流 ,加剧了层结不稳定 ,而风暴临近风垂直切变方向的快速逆转使热成风不平衡 ,必须通过激发垂直环流以适应其变化 ,对风暴发展有重要作用。     

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。     

Geological controls on rock mass classification of coal from Huntly East Mine, New Zealand

Rock Mass Rating (RMR) measurements from 65 sites within Huntly East underground coal mine are presented. All measurements are in coal, for which the dominant discontinuities are vertical cleat. Basic RMR values using two discontinuity spacings are presented: overall RMR based on the average spacing of all individual discontinuities; and cleat zone RMR based on the average spacing between zones of cleat. Cleat orientations are highly variable, but on average approximately parallel horizontal stress axes (face cleat follows maximum horizontal stress axis, butt cleat follows minimum horizontal stress axis).Contours of RMR variations throughout the mine are used to compare rock mass conditions with geological structure. It is apparent that: (1) RMR is least within downthrown fault blocks, and particularly immediately on the downthrown sides of faults, and greatest in upthrown fault blocks; and (2) RMR contours parallel horizontal stress axes within fault-bounded blocks, and bend to parallel faults at block boundaries. From similar contours for parameters contributing to RMR, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), groundwater rating, and discontinuity condition rating create most of the observed variations in RMR. RQD is determined from the measured discontinuity frequency and hence is a measure of the degree of fracturing of the rock mass. This is interpreted as influencing the groundwater and condition parameters directly by allowing greater water ingress. Discontinuity frequency is greatest (least spacing) in the immediate vicinity of faults, and in downthrown fault blocks, generating low RMR values. Within fault blocks RQD varies little, so RMR contours align with cleat orientations.As RMR contours, faults, stress field and cleat orientation are clearly interrelated, there is unequivocally a connection between RMR and structural geology; this allows some predictive capacity in terms of ground conditions. If geological features can be accurately defined through either drilling programs or seismic surveys, then ground conditions may be predicted before panels are driven.     

Analysis of earth dams affected by the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake

An earthquake of magnitude of 7.6 (M_w 7.6) occurred in Bhuj, India on January 26, 2001. This event inflicted damages of varying extents to a large number of small to moderate size multi-zone earth dams in the vicinity of the epicenter. Some of the distress was due to the liquefaction of saturated alluvium in foundation. Liquefaction was relatively localized for the majority of these dams because the earthquake struck in the middle of a prolonged dry season when the reservoirs behind these dams were nearly empty and shallow alluvium soils underneath the downstream portions of the dams were partly dry. Otherwise, liquefaction of foundation soils would have been more extensive and damage to these dams more significant. Six such dams have been examined in this paper. Four of these facilities, Chang, Shivlakha, Suvi, and Tapar were within the 50 km of epicenter region. These dams underwent free-field ground motion with peak ground accelerations between 0.28g to 0.52g. Of these Chang Dam underwent severe slumping, whereas Shivlakha, Suvi, and Tapar Dams were affected severely especially over the upstream sections. Fatehgadh Dam and Kaswati Dam were affected relatively less severely. Foundation conditions underneath these dams were first examined for assessing liquefaction potential. A limited amount of subsurface information available from investigations undertaken prior to the earthquake indicates that, although the foundation soils within the top 2.0 to 2.5 m underneath these dams were susceptible to liquefaction, Bhuj Earthquake did not trigger liquefaction because of lack of saturation of these layers underneath the downstream portions of these dams. These dams were then analyzed using a simple sliding block procedure using appropriate estimates of undrained soil strength parameters. The results of this analysis for these structures were found to be in general agreement with the observed deformation patterns.     

Riddle of arsenic in groundwater of Bengal Delta Plain—role of non-inland source and redox traps

In the Bengal Delta Plain (BDP) the primary arsenic sourcing appears to be different from the global scenario. Here, the Terminal Pleistocene–Holocene depositional platform, the interactive early Holocene depositional morphology with fluvio-estuarine and marine incursions played a crucial role for arsenic sourcing and enrichment. The lenticular silt-fine sand layer between anoxic clay beds favoured entrapment of dissolved organic carbon with decayed phyto-planktons debris. The Terminal Pleistocene–Holocene transgression and regression processes may have acted as major events in the BDP. Interestingly, at the end of the last glacial maxima, the Pleistocene delta had undergone block movements, wherein some parts of the platform were raised above the level of Holocene deposition. Those blocks were found to be free from arsenic in the groundwater. The sea, during re-emerging inundation (10–7 ka BP), has witnessed a monsoon-induced environment in the BDP with the resultant oscillation of sea level leading to higher upsurge towards the north. This might have resulted in the marine incursion and inundation in pre-existing land depressions. Meanwhile arsenic entrapments through marine incursion as well as enrichment in the presence of organic carbon/DOC and/or Fe/Mn/Al catalytic agents could have developed into localised redox traps. It may be of relevance that due to the repetitive transgressive–regressive phases in Holocene, resulting in periodic exposure and weathering of iron-bearing minerals and consequent iron enrichment in the aquifer system. The iron, thus present, had free charge to host arsenic as a sink. It appears that arsenic, wherever found, would likely be of atypical localised exhaustible phenomenon, both in horizontal and vertical context. It also rationalises the cause of the absence of arsenic in the other nearby Pleistocene platform, which has not come across Holocene interaction and marine incursion, as to the likely limiting condition for the search for arsenic in the BDP or beyond.