Debris flows risk analysis and direct loss estimation: the case study of Valtellina di Tirano,Italy

andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.     

Time evolution of complex networks: commuting systems in insular Italy

The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of the commuting system of two insular regions of Italy, Sardinia and Sicily, inspected as complex networks. The authors refer to a 20-year time period and take into account three census data sets about the work and study-driven inter-municipal origin-destination movements of residential inhabitants in 1981, 1991 and 2001. Since it is likely that the number of municipalities (in this case, the vertices of the system) does not display sharp variations, the authors direct the study to the variation of the properties emerging through both a topological and a weighted network representation of commuting in the time periods indicated.     

The Th/La and Sm/La conundrum of the Tethyan realm lamproites

The Oligocene–Pleistocene Tethyan Realm Lamproites, from the Mediterranean to Himalayas, have a clear subduction-related signature and represent one of the most exotic and rare ultrapotassic mantle-derived magmas. They share the major element and mineralogical characteristics of the lamproite clan rocks, but clearly define a distinct subgroup with respect to within-plate lamproites on the basis of a number of key trace element ratios and radiogenic isotopes. The most striking characteristic of the Tethyan Realm Lamproites is the positive correlation between Th/La (up to > 1.5) and Sm/La (up to > 0.3), which is opposite to what observed in subduction-related magmas worldwide and cannot be reconciled with typical slab recycling processes. The geochemical conundrum of the Tethyan Realm Lamproites requires a component with high Sm/La and Th/La (hence named SALATHO), in addition to a normal K₂O–rich sediment melt component (with low Th/La and Sm/La). The Pb isotope composition of the Tethyan Realm Lamproites also displays a mixing array from a normal sediment melt component to a high ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb and low ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb end-member that can be reconciled with the SALATHO component. This end-member requires a history of high time-integrated κ? (²³²Th/²³⁸U) and low time-integrated μ (²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb) and ought to be older than some hundreds of million years.We propose a multi-stage process for the formation of the mantle sources of the Tethyan Realm Lamproites related to the tectonic mélange domains (i.e. chaotic mixture of depleted peridotite, basalt, and sediment) accreted to the Eurasia plate during the collisional events of the northward drifting continental slivers from Gondwana. In a first stage, the mélange domains experienced high P and low T metamorphism with segregation and stabilisation of lawsonite and zoisite/epidote veins, which potentially match the geochemical characteristics required by the SALATHO component. Successively, the subduction of the Neotethys and Alpine Tethys oceanic plates produced normal K₂O-rich sediment melts that migrated through the mantle wedge and metasomatised the depleted lithospheric mantle blocks within the chaotic mélange, forming a clinopyroxene–phlogopite vein network. Eventually, the Tertiary orogenic belt collapses triggered the onset of low-degree melting of the low-solidus fractions within the mélange domains, producing lamproitic magmas.     

Rapid directivity detection by azimuthal amplitude spectra inversion

An early detection of the presence of rupture directivity plays a major role in the correct estimation of ground motions and risks associated to the earthquake occurrence. We present here a simple method for a fast detection of rupture directivity, which may be additionally used to discriminate fault and auxiliary planes and have first estimations of important kinematic source parameters, such as rupture length and rupture time. Our method is based on the inversion of amplitude spectra from P-wave seismograms to derive the apparent duration at each station and on the successive modelling of its azimuthal behaviour. Synthetic waveforms are built assuming a spatial point source approximation, and the finite apparent duration of the spatial point source is interpreted in terms of rupture directivity. Since synthetic seismograms for a point source are calculated very quickly, the presence of directivity may be detected within few seconds, once a focal mechanism has been derived. The method is here first tested using synthetic datasets, both for linear and planar sources, and then successfully applied to recent Mw 6.2–6.8 shallow earthquakes in Peloponnese, Greece. The method is suitable for automated application and may be used to improve kinematic waveform modelling approaches.     

Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues

Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes.     

The effect of star formation on the evolution of Blue Compact Dwarf galaxies

We study the effect of different star formation regimes on the dynamical and chemical evolution of Blue Compact Dwarf galaxies. To do that, we adopt a 2-D hydrocode coupled with detailed chemical yields originating from SNeII, SNeIa and from intermediate-mass stars. We apply this kind of simulation to a model of galaxy resembling IZw18. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Surface current patterns in front of the Venice Lagoon

Surface patterns of the low-frequency current in a 20 × 30 km region in front of the Venice Lagoon were analysed from a 13-month-long HF radar data set. Surface circulation was related to prevalent wind regimes in the area and to the tidal flow through the lagoon inlet. Three different categories of wind-forcing were defined: bora (NE wind), sirocco (SE wind), and finally the category containing all other wind directions and calms (winds lower than 3 m/sec). Mean flow and vorticity spatial distributions were discussed for different wind conditions. The coastal area about 5 km wide is characterized by a flow field with maximum vorticity. Outside the coastal boundary layer the interior flow is part of the Adriatic basin-wide cyclonic circulation. Two counter-rotating vortices of the dimension of about 4–5 km were evidenced in the average flow field in front of the lagoon inlet (Malamocco inlet) in all situations except for the bora. The vortex-pair is probably associated with the tidal flow through the inlet. The bora wind induces a strong southward coastal jet detached from the coast by about 5 km homogenizing the flow and eliminating the dipole. The average coastal flow pattern in calm wind conditions was also analysed as a function of the strong inflow/outflow (currents in the inlet > 0.7 m s⁻¹) from the lagoon inlet. In both cases the vorticity pattern is similar, with the negative vorticity to the left of the inlet and positive to the right looking seaward.     

Revised photometric elements of three semi-detached binary systems

TheV andB light curves of three Algol-type eclipsing binaries (UZ Cyg, VW Cyg, AQ Peg), observed by Ammanet al. (1979), have been analysed using the Wilson and Devinney (1971) model. We find that all of them are semi-detached systems, with A-type primary components and K-type evolved secondary which fill the corresponding lobe, although VW Cyg should perhaps be considered as an sd-d system.