景泰M_S4.7地震前的定点形变异常

2014年11月15日,在甘肃省白银市景泰县发生MS4.7地震,震源深度10km。在震中附近200km以内,甘肃省地震局共安装架设有14台各类形变观测仪器。本文通过对这些形变观测仪产出的分钟值观测资料做小波分析发现,在地震前1个月内共有11台(套)形变观测仪记录到了异常变化。其中:SSY、TJ、DSQ、SSQ型观测仪记录到异常的同步性非常好;CZB型观测仪记录到的异常比较乱,没有固定的规律。通过对这些异常变化的总结能够为地震预测提供一定的判断依据。     

Wave Propagation Modeling and Amplitude-Variation-with-Offset Response in a Fractured Coalbed

Coalbed methane can be detected employing the amplitudevariation-with-offset technique. However, there are two issues in applying this technique to a coalbed: strong azimuthal anisotropy resulting from high-density fractures, and the seismic response being composed of many or several individual reflections within the coalbed. To overcome these difficulties, we present an exact solution for reflections in extensive dilatancy anisotropy media. First, we build a three-layer model and simulate the wave propagation in this model. Then we derive an exact P- and converted S-wave reflection coefficient equation based on boundary conditions. Finally, substituting given model parameters into the exact equation, we obtain the variation in the reflection coefficient with incidence angle. The results show that the fracture factors, wavelet frequency and thickness of the coalbed have different effects on the reflection coefficient. Furthermore, we create a synthetic seismogram by forward calculation, and the result fits well with results of the exact equation.     

油藏数值模拟中地质模型的建模流程与方法

围绕油藏数值模拟过程中三维地质模型的建模技术进行了分析与探讨,详细介绍了基于角点网格模型的建模方法,给出了相应的实现步骤。其主要流程是:首先根据断层数据构造断层模型,在断层模型的基础上构建骨架模型;然后在骨架模型约束下采用地层恢复技术实现含断层的地层模型;最后基于结构模型插值物性参数完成属性模型。以塔河油田缝洞型油藏为例,对建模流程和技术的可行性进行验证,结果表明,其建模结果与专业地质建模软件Petrel相符。     

Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,northwest China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ET_o was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ET_o trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ET_o. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ET_o was also analyzed. We found that ET_o showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ET_o, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ET_o. The more significant decrease in ET_o for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ET_o and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ET_o were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ET_o response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户气候变化的适应行为及影响因素分析

从农户个体微观视角,研究农业的活动主体--农户的气候变化适应行为。选择陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区,采用问卷调查和半结构式访谈相结合的方法研究农户气候变化感知与适应行为,运用二元逻辑回归模型分析影响该地区农户适应行为的因素。结果表明：农户对气候变化趋势感知比较一致,认为近5 年夏季和冬季气温升高,降水减少,但与实际观测存在一定偏差。农户应对气候变化采取适应行为的比重并不高,只有57.8% 的农户表示采取了相应的措施来应对气候变化。农户适应行为受气候变化感知的影响,此外,家庭社会经济属性对农户采取适应行为的概率影响显著,而性别、年龄、文化程度等人口属性因素与农户采取适应行为的概率关系不大。     

Early Cretaceous porphyry copper mineralization in Northeast China: the Changfagou example

The Changfagou Cu deposit is a newly discovered porphyry deposit located in the southern Jilin Province of Northeastern China, on the northeastern margin of the North China Craton. To better understand the formation of the Cu deposit, we report the zircon U–Pb and molybdenite Re–Os dating, and Sr-, Nd-, and Hf- isotopic data of the granite porphyry. LA-ICP-MS dating of zircon grains from two mineral zones in the granite porphyry yield ages of 115.7 ± 0.8 and 115.3 ± 0.6 Ma, which is interpreted as the emplacement age of the granite porphyry. The molybdenite Re–Os model ages of 112.5 to 113.8 Ma, an isochron age of 113.3 ± 1.3 Ma, and a weighted mean model age of 113.0 ± 0.7 Ma, which represents the age of the Cu mineralization quite well. The Changfagou granite porphyry samples lack amphibole and muscovite, and are compositionally characterized by high SiO₂, high Na₂O+K₂O, and low P₂O₅, enriched in some Rb, Th, U, and Pb, and depleted in Nb, Ta, Ti, P, and Eu. Mineralogical and geochemical features suggest that the Changfagou granite porphyry samples are slightly peraluminous and are of highly fractionated I-type granitoids. The granitic rocks also have relatively high (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i (0.71199 to 0. 71422), and both low εNd(t) (?14.56 to ?13.19) and εHf(t) values (?14.916 to ?8.644), which suggest that Changfagou granite porphyry are derived from mixed sources of crustal and mantle, and diagenesis and mineralization were possibly related to the switch in subduction direction of the Palaeo-Pacific Plate in the late phase of Early Cretaceous.     

Detecting hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours based on spatio-temporal clustering techniques

Hotspots are regions where the number of spatial objects is obviously high within the time intervals. As the behaviours of urban residents are considered as a typical kind of spatio-temporal pattern, the detection of hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours appears necessary, since important information might be discovered in hotspots. In this paper, we propose an approach to detect the spatio-temporal hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours. This approach is validated based on the GPS data of floating cars of a city in southern China. The approach consists of four main steps: first, the effective spatio-temporal trajectories and the important characteristic points contained in each trajectory are extracted from the GPS data; second, the spatio-temporal clusters are generated by clustering the characteristic points based on a kernel density estimation algorithm; third, the spatio-temporal hotspots are detected by filtering the spatio-temporal clusters with high densities; last, the detected hotspots are analysed and interpreted. The results show that the proposed approach is effective and useful in detecting hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours.     

The contingency of medicare physician spending on population densities and sizes

The exploration of the spatial association between Medicare physician spending and population densities and sizes could possibly facilitate the investigation of the causal mechanisms beneath the variation in medical care. We acquired the U.S. Medicare physician expenditures and regional demographic and geographic data in 2006 from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care. Six geographic units—states, counties, Hospital Referral Regions, Hospital Service Areas, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and state non-Metropolitan Statistical Areas—were used as units of study. Pearson correlation analysis, multivariable regression, and partial correlation analysis were employed. Among six geographic units, Pearson correlation coefficients between Medicare physician expenditures and logarithmic population densities ranged from 0.42 to 0.63 (p < 0.05 for all), and between the expenditures and logarithmic population sizes from 0.31 to 0.65 (p < 0.05 for all). When population health, differential demand, market structure, and data reporting bias were controlled, population densities and sizes were positively associated with Medicare physician expenditures in most models. Population densities and sizes could explain considerable amounts of regional variation in Medicare physician spending. We concluded that Medicare physician spending was contingent on population densities and sizes. Because population densities and sizes are produced by more fundamental qualities such as natural environments and resources and thus are not easily manipulated, they are suggestive in health policy studies. Further research might investigate population distribution associated properties such as geographic distribution of health care resources, spatial dynamics of medical technology distribution, and cultural and psychological factors.     

Diagenesis and hydrocarbon emplacement in the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation tight sandstones in the southern Ordos Basin,China

The Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the southern Ordos Basin is a tight sandstone but productive hydrocarbon exploration target. A variety of analyses, including thin-sections, cathodoluminescence (CL), scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), fluorescence, isotope and fluid inclusion, have been used to analyse the reservoir petrology and diagenesis to understand the evolution of reservoir porosity. The sandstones are mostly feldspathic litharenites and lithic arkoses with low porosities (7.6% on average) and extremely low permeabilities (0.49 mD on average). A complex diagenetic alteration history of the reservoir caused different kinds of reduction in reservoir porosity. The carbonate cements are sourced from adjacent organic-rich mudstone and precipitated with a higher content near the edges of sandstone units and a lower content at the centres of sandstone units, resulting in two different diagenetic evolution paths. The analysis of porosity evolution history and hydrocarbon emplacement produced the following conclusions: (1) during the eodiagenesis period, mechanical compaction reduced the primary porosity dramatically from 40 to 19%; and (2) during the mesodiagenesis period, the first-phase oil charged the reservoir (porosity ranging from 14 to 19%) as bitumen along detrital grains forming a preferential pathway for subsequent oil emplacements. In the second-phase of oil charge, the reservoir porosity ranged from 9 to 14% limiting water–rock reactions. During the third-phase of oil charge, porosity of the reservoir remained at 9%. In general, the densification period (with a porosity close to 10%) of the reservoir occurs at the same time as the major oil emplacement and may be an explanation for the low oil saturation of the Chang 8 tight sandstone.