High-resolution simulations for Vietnam - methodology and evaluation of current climate

To assist the government of Vietnam in its efforts to better understand the impacts of climate change and prioritise its adaptation measures, dynamically downscaled climate change projections were produced across Vietnam. Two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were used: CSIRO’s variable-resolution Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) and the limited-area model Regional Climate Model system version 4.2 (RegCM4.2). First, global CCAM simulations were completed using bias- and variance-corrected sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice concentrations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. This approach is different from other downscaling approaches as it does not use any atmospheric fields from the GCMs. The global CCAM simulations were then further downscaled to 10 km using CCAM and to 20 km using RegCM4.2. Evaluations of temperature and precipitation for the current climate (1980-2000) were completed using station data as well as various gridded observational datasets. The RCMs were able to reproduce reasonably well most of the important characteristics of observed spatial patterns and annual cycles of temperature. Average and minimum temperatures were well simulated (biases generally less than 1oC), while maximum temperatures had biases of around 1oC. For precipitation, although the RCMs captured the annual cycle, RegCM4.2 was too dry in Oct.-Nov. (-60% bias), while CCAM was too wet in Dec.- Mar. (130% bias). Both models were too dry in summer and too wet in winter (especially in northern Vietnam). The ability of the ensemble simulations to capture current climate increases confidence in the simulations of future climate.     

Mid-Holocene variability in the marine C reservoir age for northern coastal Papua New Guinea

Changes in oceanic radiocarbon (¹⁴C) reservoir ages through the deglaciation and Holocene can provide important information on ocean circulation as Earth's climate warmed. Here, we present reservoir ages for the western tropical Pacific that span the mid-Holocene transition from less to more frequent El Niño events. Reservoir ages were calculated using paired U–Th and conventional ¹⁴C dating of eight individual fossil coral samples from Koil and Muschu Islands, northern coastal Papua New Guinea (PNG). AMS ¹⁴C and MC-ICPMS U–Th dating of additional samples from six of the fossil corals were used to confirm the TIMS U–Th and conventional ¹⁴C ages. The combined results show average reservoir ages of 185±30 ¹⁴C yr (n=4) for 7220–5850 yr BP compared to 420 ¹⁴C yr for a modern coral from Muschu Island. From 5850 to 5420 yr BP reservoir ages increase to modern values. The relatively young reservoir ages from 7220 to 5850 yr BP are best explained by greater influx of well-equilibrated sub-tropical water from the southern branch of the South Equatorial Current (SEC). This is consistent with strengthening trade winds (facilitating air–sea exchange) and a more northerly position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone thought to have occurred at this time. The transition to more modern-like reservoir ages from 5850 to 5420 yr BP suggests modern oceanic circulation patterns were established during this interval. The onset of modern El Niño activity around this time would have served to enhance the intrusion of ¹⁴C-depleted equatorial waters via the south equatorial branch of the SEC. Overall, the changes in reservoir age presented here for the western tropical Pacific suggest that Holocene changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation state of the tropical Pacific resulted in reorganisation of oceanic circulation in this region.     

An approach to hydrograph classification

The stream hydrograph is an integration of spatial and temporal variations in water input, storage and transfer processes within a catchment. For glacier basins in particular, inferences concerning catchment‐scale processes have been developed from the varying form and magnitude of the diurnal hydrograph in the proglacial river. To date, however, such classifications of proglacial diurnal hydrographs have developed in a relatively subjective manner. This paper develops an objective approach to the classification of diurnal discharge hydrograph ‘shape’ and ‘magnitude’ using a combination of principal components analysis and cluster analysis applied to proglacial discharge time‐series and to diurnal bulk flow indices. The procedure is applied to discharge time‐series from two different glacier basins and four separate ablation seasons representing a gradient of increasing hydrological perturbation as a result of (i) variable water inputs generated by rainstorm activity and (ii) variable location and response of hydrological stores through a systematic decrease in catchment glacierized area. The potential of the technique for application in non‐glacial hydrological contexts is discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN KANSAS: A FOUR-CROP ANALYSIS

Most scenarios of greenhouse-gas climatic change predict a warmer drier Great Plains environment. The goal of this research was to determine the resulting change in soil moisture and to relate this to changes in agricultural productivity. Soil moisture was used in regression-based models to predict yields for the four major grain crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum. The results indicate that a warmer drier climate would reduce yields for the summer crops throughout the state. The yield for winter wheat also decreased in the western part of the state but actually increased in eastern Kansas. Corn and soybeans could decline in the dry land crop mix in eastern Kansas as wheat becomes a more viable alternative. Thus, the results imply possible geographic shifts in the crop belts in Kansas. [Key words: climatic change, agricultural production, soil moisture.]     

A comparison of downscaling techniques in the projection of local climate change and wheat yields

This study aims to evaluate the performance of two mainstream downscaling techniques: statistical and dynamical downscaling and to compare the differences in their projection of future climate change and the resultant impact on wheat crop yields for three locations across New South Wales, Australia. Bureau of Meteorology statistically- and CSIRO dynamically-downscaled climate, derived or driven by the CSIRO Mk 3.5 coupled general circulation model, were firstly evaluated against observed climate data for the period 1980–1999. Future climate projections derived from the two downscaling approaches for the period centred on 2055 were then compared. A stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, was used in this study to derive monthly climate changes and to construct climate change scenarios. The Agricultural Production System sIMulator-Wheat model was then combined with the constructed climate change scenarios to quantify the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield. Statistical results show that (1) in terms of reproducing the past climate, statistical downscaling performed better over dynamical downscaling in most of the cases including climate variables, their mean, variance and distribution, and study locations, (2) there is significant difference between the two downscaling techniques in projected future climate change except the mean value of rainfall across the three locations for most of the months; and (3) there is significant difference in projected wheat grain yields between the two downscaling techniques at two of the three locations.     

The SOLAS air-sea gas exchange experiment (SAGE) 2004

The SOLAS air-sea gas exchange experiment (SAGE) was a multiple-objective study investigating gas-transfer processes and the influence of iron fertilisation on biologically driven gas exchange in high-nitrate low-silicic acid low-chlorophyll (HNLSiLC) Sub-Antarctic waters characteristic of the expansive subpolar zone of the southern oceans. This paper provides a general introduction and summary of the main experimental findings. The release site was selected from a pre-voyage desktop study of environmental parameters to be in the south-west Bounty Trough (46.5°S 172.5°E) to the south-east of New Zealand and the experiment was conducted between mid-March and mid-April 2004. In common with other mesoscale iron addition experiments (FeAX’s), SAGE was designed as a Lagrangian study, quantifying key biological and physical drivers influencing the air-sea gas exchange processes of CO₂, DMS and other biogenic gases associated with an iron-induced phytoplankton bloom. A dual tracer SF₆/³He release enabled quantification of both the lateral evolution of a labelled volume (patch) of ocean and the air-sea tracer exchange at tenths of kilometer scale, in conjunction with the iron fertilisation. Estimates from the dual-tracer experiment found a quadratic dependency of the gas exchange coefficient on windspeed that is widely applicable and describe air-sea gas exchange in strong wind regimes. Within the patch, local and micrometeorological gas exchange process studies (100 m scale) and physical variables such as near-surface turbulence, temperature microstructure at the interface, wave properties and windspeed were quantified to further assist the development of gas exchange models for high-wind environments.There was a significant increase in the photosynthetic competence (F_v/F_m) of resident phytoplankton within the first day following iron addition, but in contrast to other FeAX’s, rates of net primary production and column-integrated chlorophyll a concentrations had only doubled relative to the unfertilised surrounding waters by the end of the experiment. After 15 days and four iron additions totalling 1.1 ton Fe²⁺, this was a very modest response compared to other mesoscale iron enrichment experiments. An investigation of the factors limiting bloom development considered co-limitation by light and other nutrients, the phytoplankton seed-stock and grazing regulation. Whilst incident light levels and the initial Si:N ratio were the lowest recorded in all FeAXs to date, there was only a small seed-stock of diatoms (less than 1% of biomass) and the main response to iron addition was by the picophytoplankton. A high rate of dilution of the fertilised patch relative to phytoplankton growth rate, the greater than expected depth of the surface mixed layer and microzooplankton grazing were all considered as factors that prevented significant biomass accumulation. In line with the limited response, the enhanced biological draw-down of pCO₂ was small and masked by a general increase in pCO₂ due to mixing with higher pCO₂ waters. The DMS precursor DMSP was kept in check through grazing activity and in contrast to most FeAX’s dissolved dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration declined through the experiment. SAGE is an important low-end member in the range of responses to iron addition in FeAX’s. In the context of iron fertilisation as a geoengineering tool for atmospheric CO₂ removal, SAGE has clearly demonstrated that a significant proportion of the low iron ocean may not produce a phytoplankton bloom in response to iron addition.     

ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism

The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia’s east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51′18″S, 151°13′32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast - with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances.     

The physical, chemical and mineralogical properties of three cemented layers within sulfide-bearing mine tailings

The oxidation and subsequent dissolution of sulfide minerals within mine tailings impoundments releases H⁺, Fe(II), SO₄ and trace elements to the tailings pore water. Subsequent pH-buffering and hydrolysis reactions result in the precipitation of secondary phases such as gypsum, goethite and jarosite. In areas of intense precipitation, cemented layers or “hardpans” often form within the shallow tailings. Three cemented layers within pyrrhotite-bearing mine tailings at the Fault Lake, Nickel Rim and East Mine impoundments located near Sudbury, Canada, were examined. The location of the three cemented layers within the tailings stratigraphy varies as does their location relative to the water table. The morphology, mineralogy and chemical composition of the cemented layers also vary between sites. The bulk density within the three cemented layers all showed an increase relative to the surrounding uncemented tailings ranging from 9% to 29%. The porosity of each cemented layer decreased relative to the surrounding uncemented tailings ranging from an 8% to 18% decrease. The cemented layers also showed relative enrichment of total sulfur, carbon and trace elements relative to the surrounding uncemented tailings. Arsenic concentrations showed an enrichment in the cemented layers of up to 132%, Cd up to 99%, Co up to 84%, Cu up to 144%, Ni up to 693% and Zn up to 145% relative to the surrounding uncemented tailings. All the cemented layers studied show an evolution of the secondary phases with time from a gypsum–jarosite-based cement to a goethite-rich cement. The formation of these layers could potentially have a significant effect on the environmental impacts of sulfide-bearing mine waste.