Uncertainty Analysis in Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling

The concentration of a pollutant in the atmosphere is a random variable that cannot be predicted accurately, but can be described using quantities such as ensemble mean, variance, and probability distribution. There is growing recognition that the modeled concentrations of hazardous contaminants in the atmosphere should be described in a probabilistic framework. This paper discusses the various types of uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion models, and reviews sensitivity/uncertainty analysis methods to characterize and/or reduce them. Evaluation and quantification of the range of uncertainties in predictions yield a deeper insight into the capabilities and limitations of atmospheric dispersion models, and increase our confidence in decision-making based on models.     

Utility of Hyperspectral Data for Potato Late Blight Disease Detection

The study was carried out to investigate the utility of hyperspectral reflectance data for potato late blight disease detection. The hyperspectral data was collected for potato crop at different level of disease infestation using hand-held spectroradiometer over the spectral range of 325–1075 nm. The data was averaged into 10-nm wide wavebands, resulting in 75 narrowbands. The reflectance curve was partitioned into five regions, viz. 400–500 nm, 520–590 nm, 620–680 nm, 770–860 nm and 920–1050 nm. The notable differences in healthy and diseased potato plants were noticed in 770–860 nm and 920–1050 nm range. Vegetation indices, namely NDVI, SR, SAVI and red edge were calculated using reflectance values. The differences between the vegetation indices for plants at different levels of disease infestation were found highly significant. The optimal hyperspectral wavebands to discriminate the healthy plants from disease infested plants were 540, 610, 620, 700, 710, 730, 780 and 1040 nm whereas upto 25% infestation could be discriminated using reflectance at 710, 720 and 750 nm.     

Documenting channel features associated with gas hydrates in the Krishna–Godavari Basin,offshore India

During the India National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition 01 in 2006 significant sand and gas hydrate were recovered at Site NGHP-01-15 within the Krishna–Godavari Basin, East Coast off India. At the drill site NGHP-01-15, a 5–8 m thick interval was found that is characterized by higher sand content than anywhere else at the site and within the KG Basin. Gas hydrate concentrations were determined to be 20–40% of the pore volume using wire-line electrical resistivity data as well as core-derived pore-fluid freshening trends. The gas hydrate-bearing interval was linked to a prominent seismic reflection observed in the 3D seismic data. This reflection event, mapped for about 1 km² south of the drill site, is bound by a fault at its northern limit that may act as migration conduit for free gas to enter the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) and subsequently charge the sand-rich layer. On 3D and additional regional 2D seismic data a prominent channel system was imaged mainly by using the seismic instantaneous amplitude attribute. The channel can be clearly identified by changes in the seismic character of the channel fill (sand-rich) and pronounced levees (less sand content than in the fill, but higher than in surrounding mud-dominated sediments). The entire channel sequence (channel fill and levees) has been subsequently covered and back-filled with a more mud-prone sediment sequence. Where the levees intersect the base of the GHSZ, their reflection strengths are significantly increased to 5- to 6-times the surrounding reflection amplitudes. Using the 3D seismic data these high-amplitude reflection edges where linked to the gas hydrate-bearing layer at Site NGHP-01-15. Further south along the channel the same reflection elements representing the levees do not show similarly large reflection amplitudes. However, the channel system is still characterized by several high-amplitude reflection events (a few hundred meters wide and up to ~ 1 km in extent) interpreted as gas hydrate-bearing sand intervals along the length of the channel.     

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River,west coast of India

Abstract

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June–September), with a peak during July–August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse raingauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Suprit, K., Shankar, D., Venugopal, V. and Bhatkar, N.V., 2012. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 686–704.     

Spatio-temporal evaluation of event detection and measurement coherence among satellite rainfall products for ensembled dataset generation

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Selection of a best suited satellite-based gridded rainfall product (SGRP) is challenging due to their significant variations at spatial and temporal scale....     

Shifted cosmological parameter and shifted dust matter in a two-phase tachyonic field universe

We propose a model of the evolution of the tachyonic scalar field over two phases in the universe. The field components do not interact in phase I, while in the subsequent phase II, they change flavours due to relative suppression of the radiation contribution. In phase II, we allow them to interact mutually with time-independent perturbation in their equations of state, as Shifted Cosmological Parameter (SCP) and Shifted Dust Matter (SDM). We determine the solutions of their scaling with the cosmic redshift in both phases. We further suggest the normalised Hubble function diagnostic, which, together with the low- and high-redshift H(z) data and the concordance values of the present density parameters from the CMBR, BAO statistics etc., constrain the strength of interaction by imposing the viable conditions to break degeneracy in 3-parameter $(\gamma, \varepsilon, \dot{\phi}^{2})$ space. The range of redshifts (z=0.1 to z=1.75) is chosen to highlight the role of interaction during structure formation, and it may lead to a future analysis of power spectrum in this model vis a vis Warm Dark Matter (WDM) or ΛCDM models. We further calculate the influence of interaction in determining the age of the universe at the present epoch, within the degeneracy space of model parameters.     

Indian summer monsoon forcing on the deglacial polar cold reversals

The deglacial transition from the last glacial maximum at \(\sim \)20 kiloyears before present (ka) to the Holocene (11.7 ka to Present) was interrupted by millennial-scale cold reversals, viz., Antarctic Cold Reversal (\(\sim \)14.5–12.8 ka) and Greenland Younger Dryas (\(\sim \)12.8–11.8 ka) which had different timings and extent of cooling in each hemisphere. The cause of this synchronously initiated, but different hemispheric cooling during these cold reversals (Antarctic Cold Reversal \(\sim \)3\(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) and Younger Dryas \(\sim \)10\(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\)) is elusive because \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), the fundamental forcing for deglaciation, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the driver of antiphased bipolar climate response, both fail to explain this asymmetry. We use centennial-resolution records of the local surface water \(\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}\) of the Eastern Arabian Sea, which constitutes a proxy for the precipitation associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon, and other tropical precipitation records to deduce the role of tropical forcing in the polar cold reversals. We hypothesize a mechanism for tropical forcing, via the Indian Summer Monsoons, of the polar cold reversals by migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the associated cross-equatorial heat transport.     

Accumulation of Heavy Metals by Chickpea Grown in Fly Ash Treated Soil: Effect on Antioxidants

Chickpea grown in fly ash (FA) treated soil (25, 50, and 100% FA) was used to evaluate the effect of FA on antioxidants, metal concentration (Fe, Zn, Cu, Cr, and Cd), photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll a (chl‐a), chlorophyll b (chl‐b), total chlorophyll (total chl), and carotenoids), growth and yield performance. All antioxidants in roots, shoots and leaves of chickpea increase with increasing FA doses to combat FA stress. The activities of antioxidants were more in the root tissues to cope with stress induced in the plants as compared to shoot and leaf. Concentration of metals was found maximum in roots than the shoots and seeds. The highest concentration of Fe and lowest level of Cd were recorded in all treatments of FA for different parts of the plant. The treated crop showed reduced level of chlorophyll but enhanced level of carotenoids and protein. However, root length, number of nodules and biomass in 25 and 50% FA treatments did not differ significantly in comparison to respective control plants. These results suggest that heavy metals of FA causes oxidative stress in this crop and the antioxidant enzymes could help a pivotal role against oxidative injury.     

Effective medium theory and multiple linear regression-based velocity estimation in syn-rift clastic sequence of the Krishna–Godavari basin,India

An inclusion model, based on the Kuster–Toksöz effective medium theory along with Gassmann theory, is tested to forward model velocities for fluid-saturated rocks. A simulated annealing algorithm, along with the inclusion model, effectively inverts measured compressional velocity (V_P) to achieve an effective pore aspect ratio at each depth in a depth variant manner, continuously along with depth. Early Cretaceous syn-rift clastic sediments at two different depth intervals from two wells [well A (2160–2274 m) and well B (5222–5303 m)], in the Krishna–Godavari basin, India, are used for this study. Shear velocity (V_S) estimated using modelled pore aspect ratio offers a high correlation coefficient (>0.95 for both the wells) with measured data. The modelled pore aspect ratio distribution suggests the decrease in pore aspect ratio for the deeper interval, mainly due to increased effective vertical stress. The pore aspect ratio analysis in relation to total porosity and volume of clay reveals that the clay volume has insignificant influence in shaping the pore geometry in the studied intervals. An approach based on multiple linear regression method effectively predicts velocity as a linear function of total porosity, the volume of clay and the modelled pore-space aspect ratio of the rock. We achieved a significant match between measured and predicted velocities. The correlation coefficients between measured and modelled velocities are considerably high (approximately 0.85 and 0.8, for V_P and V_S, respectively). This process indicates the possible influence of pore geometry along with total porosity and volume of clay on velocity.