Karst spring responses examined by process-based modeling

Ground water in karst terrains is highly vulnerable to contamination due to the rapid transport of contaminants through the highly conductive conduit system. For contamination risk assessment purposes, information about hydraulic and geometric characteristics of the conduits and their hydraulic interaction with the fissured porous rock is an important prerequisite. The relationship between aquifer characteristics and short-term responses to recharge events of both spring discharge and physicochemical parameters of the discharged water was examined using a process-based flow and transport model. In the respective software, a pipe-network model, representing fast conduit flow, is coupled to MODFLOW, which simulates flow in the fissured porous rock. This hybrid flow model was extended to include modules simulating heat and reactive solute transport in conduits. The application of this modeling tool demonstrates that variations of physicochemical parameters, such as solute concentration and water temperature, depend to a large extent on the intensity and duration of recharge events and provide information about the structure and geometry of the conduit system as well as about the interaction between conduits and fissured porous rock. Moreover, the responses of solute concentration and temperature of spring discharge appear to reflect different processes, thus complementing each other in the aquifer characterization.     

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.     

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague–Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.     

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Fluidization of buried mass-wasting deposits in lake sediments and its relevance for paleoseismology: Results from a reflection seismic study of lakes Villarrica and Calafquén (South-Central Chile)

A dense grid of very-high resolution seismic profiles on Lake Villarrica provides a quasi-3D view on intercalated lenses of low-amplitude reflections, which are connected by acoustic wipe-out patches and fractures to an underlying voluminous mass-wasting deposit. The lenses are interpreted as being created by earthquake-triggered liquefaction in this buried mass-wasting deposit and subsequent sediment fluidization and extrusion at the paleo-lake bottom. These sediment volcanoes are mapped in detail. They have a rather uniform circular geometry and show a linear relationship between apparent width and maximum thickness on a seismic section. The largest sediment volcanoes are up to 80 m wide and 1.9 m thick. Their slope angles designate a syn- to post-depositional sagging of most sediment volcanoes. Sediment volcano detection and mapping from nearby Lake Calafquén further strengthen the revealed geometrical relationships. Locally, some of the sediment/fluid escape structures extend to a higher position in the stratigraphy, which points to a polyphase escape process associated with multiple multi-century spaced strong earthquakes. Thickness and morphology of the source layer seem to exert a dominant control in the production of sediment/fluid extrusions. This study shows that reflection seismic profiling allowed recognizing 4 different seismic events in the studied stratigraphic interval, which are evidenced by mass-wasting deposits and/or fluidization features.     

Radiation-induced defects in quartz. III. Single-crystal EPR,ENDOR and ESEEM study of a peroxy radical

The X- and W-band single-crystal electron paramagnetic resonance spectra of an electron-irradiated natural quartz permit quantitative analysis of a ²⁹Si hyperfine structure (A ~12.6 MHz) and an ²⁷Al hyperfine structure (A ≤ 0.8 MHz) for a previously reported hole-like center. The ²⁹Si hyperfine structure arises from interaction with two equivalent Si atoms and is characterized by the direction of the unique A axis close to a Si–O bond direction. The ²⁷Al hyperfine structure, confirmed by pulsed electron nuclear double resonance and electron spin echo envelope modulation spectra, is characterized by the unique A axis approximately along a twofold symmetry axis. These ²⁹Si and ²⁷Al hyperfine data, together with published theoretical results on peroxy radicals in SiO₂ as well as our own density functional theory (DFT) calculations on model peroxy centers, suggest this hole-like center to have the unpaired spin on a pair of oxygen atoms linked to two symmetrically equivalent Si atoms and a substitutional Al³⁺ ion across the c-axis channel, a first peroxy radical in quartz. The nuclear quadrupole matrix P also suggests that the Al³⁺ ion corresponds closely to the diamagnetic precursor to the [AlO₄]⁰ center. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Biological and Physical Clogging in Infiltration Wells: Effects of Well Diameter and Gravel Pack

Gravity-driven infiltration into the shallow subsurface via small-diameter wells (SDWs), i.e., wells with an inner diameter smaller than 7.5 cm (3 inches) and no gravel pack) has proven to be a cost-efficient and flexible tool for managed aquifer recharge (MAR), as it provides relatively high recharge rates with minimal construction effort. SDWs have a significantly smaller open filter area than larger diameter wells with gravel pack, making the infiltration of low-quality waters through these wells more at risk clogging. To investigate their susceptibility for biological and physical clogging, 24 physical models with different well setups were evaluated by infiltrating either nutrient-poor but turbid water or nutrient-rich but clear water. The experiments showed that smaller diameters and the lack of a gravel pack increase the well's susceptibility to both kinds of clogging. However, this effect was observed to be much more pronounced for physical than for biological clogging. Our conclusion is that SDWs show severe disadvantages with respect to the infiltration of highly turbid waters in comparison to large diameter wells with a gravel pack. Nevertheless, this disadvantage is much less severe when it comes to the infiltration of clear but nutrient-rich waters (e.g., treated wastewater). Depending on the economic and geological circumstances of a MAR-project, this disadvantage could be outweighed by the significantly lower construction costs of SDWs.