Earthquake hazard of the northern parts of the Bohemian Massif and Western Carpathians

The new procedure of earthquake hazard evaluation developed by Kijko and Sellevoll is tested and applied for the border region of Czechoslovakia and Poland. The new method differs from the conventional approach. It incorporates the uncertainty of earthquake magnitudes, and accepts mixed data containing only large historical events and recent, complete catalogues. Seismic hazard has been calculated for nine regions determined in the border area. In the investigated area, data of historical catalogues are uncertain or, in many cases, the epicentral intensities are unknown. Thus, a number of assumptions have to be adopted in data preparation of catalogues since the year 1200. The calculated values of parameters b in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-intensity relation as well as the return periods, seem to be reasonable and are generally confirmed by the results obtained from catalogues for the last 80–130 years.     

Decay rates of sunspot groups from 1874 to 1976

The global behaviour and fine structure of the distribution of sunspot decay rates from activity cycle 13 to 20 are presented. It is shown that the distribution of this parameter is lognormal. Statistically significantly lower values of decay rates are found in cycles 13, 14, and 18 for isolated spots. The complex groups had no appreciable changes.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Solar-type stars in Cepheus OB 2: Hα emission stars and IRAS point sources

A survey for emission line stars was carried out in 1980 with the Schmidt telescope of Konkoly Observatory in the region of IC 1396 (Kun, 1986a, hereafter referred to as Paper I). This work was aimed at a preliminary mapping of the probable medium mass members of the association Cepheus OB 2. The stars of the region have been followed since then with the same telescope in order to obtain a more complete view on the stellar content of this giant star-forming region. The common variability of the H emission strength makes the sense of repeating such surveys. The new survey resulted in the discovery of 65 further emission stars. Equatorial coordinates and finding charts are given for them.PhotographicBVRI photometry was carried out for all known emission stars of the field. The colourmagnitude and two-colour diagrams derived from theB, V, R, andI magnitudes show that these stars are probably F-G-type (1.5M <M<3M ), partly pre-Main-Sequence members of Cep OB 2, whereas a few of them may be distant red giants.The youngest objects of the region can be found among the IRAS point sources. Their properties are discussed on the basis of IRAS data alone.     

Photometry of AR Lac

Visible photometry of the RS CVn system AR Lac is presented. We find some interesting features in the light curves. Also a possible oscillation with period 1.05 hr arises from the data. A new determination of the geometrical parameters of the system is given.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Large-scale distribution of magnetic fields,green corona and prominences during an extended activity cycle

The interrelations of the latitudinal distribution of the coronal green emission maxima, maximal numbers and areas of prominences, magnetic fields, sunspots, and polar faculae in the 20th and 21st sunspot cycles have been investigated. It is again demonstrated how the behaviour of all studied data depends on their heliographic latitude. In the polar zone, well separated from the equatorial we observe following polarity magnetic fields transported only polewards, while the equatorial zone is occupied mostly by leading polarity fields, developed there, moving equatorwards, and crossing the equator to the other hemisphere with the new cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity.This magnetic field distribution is well emphasized by the places of maximal occurrence of prominences and by the distribution of coronal green emission maxima which also differ in dependence on latitude.The question of identifying the first and last evolutionary stages of an extended cycle of activity is discussed and the existence of a magnetic activity cycle lasting 15–17 years is suggested.     

Velocity fields associated with the magnetic component of solar faculae

The StokesV asymmetries observed in solar faculae can be interpreted by invoking the presence of magnetic and velocity fields variations along the line-of-sight. By means of a perturbative approach, we develop the theoretical dependence on magnetic and velocity fields of the StokesV profile around its zero-crossing point. We find that the empirical curves of growth for theV zero-crossing point and the slope, as well as the curve of growth for the integral (previously derived by Sánchez Almeidaet al., 1989, through the same approach), are reproduced quite well with a single atmosphere which assumes such simultaneous variations.The depth dependence of the fields that give the best fit in our model presents several striking properties which cannot be released without totally compromising the goodness of the fit. Namely, the magnetic field strength increases towards the observer while the downflowing velocity field decreases. Both variations must occur co-spatially, in the same atmospheric layers. This fact seems to contradict theoretical models for the fanning out parts of magnetic concentrations which foresee a sharp separation between a static magnetic layer and a deep zone with velocity fields. We discuss a possible solution of such contradiction in terms of a finite optical thickness of the boundary layer between zones with and without magnetic field in faculae.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.     

The role of collisions with interplanetary particles in the physical evolution of comets

Effects of collisions with interplanetary particles are investigated. To this purpose, collision probabilities for comets with different orbital elements are computed. It is found that collisions may have a non-negligible effect on the physical evolution of comets. In this connection, it is shown that under certain conditions collisional lifetimes may be shorter than dynamical or vaporization lifetimes. In particular, collisional lifetimes are on average shorter for comets in retrograde orbits than those for direct ones. It is further suggested that catastrophic collisions may contribute to prevent long-period comets in retrograde orbits from reaching short-period orbits by orbital diffusion. Collisions may also produce irregularities of the nucleus brightness by leaving exposed regions of fresh volatile material and may in this way lead to a rejuvenation of old dusty short-period comets. Catastrophic collision probabilities are too low to account for the observed comet splittings, so other trigger mechanisms should be at work. However, it is shown that collisional mini-bursts (increases in brightness of one magnitude or so) caused by decimeter-sized bodies may occur rather frequently on short-period comets when they pass through the asteroid belt. The burst observed in comet Tempel-2 at 3 AU in December, 1978 could be an example of such collisional mini-bursts. The systematic observation of periodic comets when they pass through the asteroid belt could give valuable information about the spatial density of decimeter and meter-sized bodies. In particular, collisional effects for comet Halley, for which a continuous surveillance is planned, are evaluated.     

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.     

A Practical Procedure for the Measurement of Fragmentation by Blasting by Image Analysis

Summary. The operation of a digital image analysis system in a limestone quarry is described. The calibration of the system, required in order to obtain moderately reliable fragmentation values, is done from muckpile sieving data by tuning the image analysis software settings so that the fragmentation curve obtained matches as close as possible the sieving. The sieving data have also been used to extend the fragment size distribution curves measured to sizes below the system’s optical resolution and to process the results in terms of fragmented rock, discounting the material coming from a loose overburden (natural fines) that is cast together with the fragmented rock. Automatic and manual operation modes of the image analysis are compared. The total fragmentation of a blast is obtained from the analysis of twenty photographs; a criterion for the elimination of outlier photographs has been adopted using a robust statistic. The limitations of the measurement system due to sampling, image processing and fines corrections are discussed and the errors estimated whenever possible. An analysis of consistency of the results based on the known amount of natural fines is made. Blasts with large differences in the amount of fines require a differentiated treatment, as the fine sizes tend to be the more underestimated in the image analysis as they become more abundant; this has been accomplished by means of a variable fines adjustment factor. Despite of the unavoidable errors and the large dispersion always associated with large-scale rock blasting data, the system is sensitive to relative changes in fragmentation.