Mixing Methodologies in Seismic Hazard Assessment via a Logic Tree Procedure: An Application for Eastern Spain

This study provides a procedure for assessing seismic hazardand uncertainties in regions that are characterised by a large non-instrumental earthquakedatabase and a seismic and tectonic behaviour which doesn't allow an evident seismic zonation.This procedure is a synthesis of the non-zoning or non-parametric methodology (using extremevalues distribution functions as proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the zoning orparametric methodology (using the theorem of total probability as proposed by Cornell, 1968)via a logic tree procedure taking into consideration the advantages offered by each of these.Taking the area which we shall describe as the east coast of Spain and surrounding inland areas,an application was made and a specific logic tree was developed in order to solve the problems anduncertainties related to the evaluation of the seismic hazard using both methodologies. The use of thelogic tree allowed the systematisation of a large number of solutions obtained. A number of relevantresults were obtained which show that in some cases there are great differences in the seismichazard results provided by the non-zoning and the zoning methodologies. In these cases, mean value andstandard deviation of the obtained results provide an intermediate solution to the over-conservativeestimation provided by the non-zoning methodology and the lowest results provided by the zoningmethodology. In other cases results provided by both methodologies are significantly closer.In any case, synthesis among both methodologies gives a wider knowledge of the uncertaintiesassociated with the seismic hazard results. Finally uncertainties increase with the decreaseof the annual probability of exceedence and in sites with a seismic history of large size earthquakes.     

Overheated, Cu-bearing magmas in the Zaldívar porphyry-Cu deposit, Northern Chile. Geodynamic consequences

The Zaldívar porphyry copper deposit, Northern Chile, consists of two major intrusions, the 290 Ma Zaldívar, and the more recent Miocene (38.7 Ma) Llamo porphyry. Five types of inclusions have been identified in quartz phenocrysts from Llamo porphyry, including melt inclusions (M), and four types of fluid inclusions, called MS (multi solids), B (brines), G (vapor-rich) and W (aqueous), respectively.Melt remnants, well preserved as M-inclusions, homogenize around 1000 °C. They show a rhyolitic composition, comparable to the most evolved acidic rhyolitic end member found elsewhere in the regional magmatism and to worldwide volcanic rhyolitic glass. High silica content in some inclusions can, however, be due to partial remelting of the quartz host during the heating run. Copper content in the same inclusions ranges between 0.03 and 0.57 wt.%, with an average concentration of 0.10 wt.%, suggesting a major magmatic source for the copper (orthomagmatic model).MS inclusions, which contain a number of solids at room temperature, mostly H₂O-bearing phases (system NaCl–KCl–((Fe, Mg, Cu)Cl)–H₂O, average salinity 70 wt.% NaCl equiv.), homogenize at magmatic temperatures (around 1000 °C). They represent the first fluids to have exsolved from the magma at depth, at a pressure of about 2 kbar. Their high homogenization temperature, comparable to values measured for melt inclusions (1000 to 1050 °C), may indicate trapping of MS and M inclusions in host phenocrysts from an immiscible mixture of silicate melt and highly saline fluids expelled from the magma during the early stage of quartz crystallization.The data indicate a magmatic origin for copper, as well as extremely high melt temperatures. These features are interpreted by magmatic differentiation of mantle-derived primitive melts, corresponding to major changes in the tectonic regime of the Andean margin, which occurred in Miocene times.     

Structure of the Padul-Nigüelas Basin (S Spain) from H/V Ratios of Ambient Noise: Application of the Method to Study Peat and Coarse Sediments

—?This paper presents the results of the application of a technique of geophysical surveying based on resonance frequency of materials, in a small basin within the Internal Zones of the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain). The frequencies determined have enabled the main features of the basin's structure to be delineated, clearly identifying its asymmetry due to variations in the position of the rigid basement in different sectors. The results show that this method does not guarantee a perfect identification of coarse sediments, unless these overlie substantial more rigid materials. On the other hand, the same method was very effective for studying very soft sediments (peat), and it was possible to establish a quantitative relationship for determining the thickness of these sediments based on their resonance frequency. This relationship was then used to map peat thickness in the basin. The results have been compared with gravity studies and mechanical drillings undertaken in the region.     

Long term variation in rainfall erosivity in Uruguay: a preliminary Fournier approach

In order to explore the consequences of precipitation increase on soil erosion in Uruguay, the monthly Fournier Index (FI) and the annual Modified Fournier Index (MFI) were developed as a preliminary approach, covering consecutive decadal periods from 1931 to 2000. Rainfall data were used from 13 stations distributed all over the country. MFI shows a decrease in the 1940s, an increase during the 1950s, then a little decrease during the 1960s and 1970s and an increase in the 1980s, remaining near these last values during the 1990s. FI behavior in July and October in the last two decades shows a decrease in the Northeast region of the country—the region with highest annual precipitation—and a slight increase over the Southeast—the region with the lowest annual precipitation and the only region with a winter rainfall maximum. For the core months of winter and early spring there is a decline in erosivity in the Northeast, but an increase in the Southeast. January shows erosivity decreasing in the South during the last two decades. In April there is a peak in precipitation variability all across the country. FI shows an early increase during the 1940s in the Northwest, and generally very low values during the 1970s, with the return of high values in the 1990s, especially in the Northern corner. Results pose a challenge in order to improve research on the erosion problem, since the main source of freshwater nationwide remains surface river flow, which is prone to higher turbidity problems in areas of high soil erosion.     

Late Holocene marine terraces of the Cartagena region,southern Caribbean: The product of neotectonism or a former high stand in sea-level?

The detailed stratigraphic survey and paleontological study (mollusks, corals, foraminifera and ostracods) of four low-level, ～3 m, marine terrace sections: Punta Canoas, Manzanillo del Mar, Playa de Oro, and Tierra Bomba Island, from the Cartagena region, southern Caribbean, supplemented with 22 radiocarbon dates, reveals that the northern terraces were deposited as parasequences in a clastic depositional system compared to the Tierra Bomba Island succession that was deposited in a carbonate depositional system between ～3600 and ～1700 cal yrs BP. Drier conditions and the southern location of the ITCZ at about 3 ka triggered stronger easterly Trades and more dynamic southwestward sediment drift fed by the Magdalena River mouth, thus promoting the formation of sand spits that ultimately isolated the Cienaga de Tesca coastal lagoon from the Caribbean Sea. Our estimates support the hypothesis that the present position of the terraces is the product of neotectonism rather than a higher 3 ka, sea-level. Upheaval of the terraces varies between ～3.8 mmyr^?1 at Punta Canoas and ～2.2 mmyr^?1 at Tierra Bomba to ～1.5 mmyr^?1 at Manzanillo del Mar and Playa de Oro terraces. Our study corroborates previous contentions on the role of mud diapirism and the dynamics of the Dique Fault as late Holocene upheaval mechanisms.     

Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions

Sustaining low CO ₂ emissions pathways to 2100 may rely on electricity production from biomass. We analyze the economic effect of the availability of biomass resources and technologies with and without CCS within a general equilibrium framework. We assess the robustness of bioenergy with and without CCS for reaching the RCP 3.7 target with the hybrid model Imaclim-R. Global consumption is affected by the absence of CCS or biomass options, and biomass is shown to be a possible technological answer to the absence of CCS. As the use of biomass on a large scale might prove unsustainable, we show that early action is a strategy to reduce the need for biomass and enhance economic growth in the long term.     

Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.     

Investigation of three‐dimensional wind flow behaviour over coastal dune morphology under offshore winds using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and ultrasonic anemometry

The behaviour of offshore‐directed winds over coastal dune and beach morphology was examined using a combination of modelling (3‐D computational fluid dynamics (CFD)) and field measurement. Both model simulations and field measurements showed reversal of offshore flows at the back beach and creation of an onshore sediment transport potential. The influence of flow reversals on the beach‐dune transport system and foredune growth patterns has previously received little attention. Detailed wind flow measurements were made using an extensive array of mast‐mounted, 3‐D ultrasonic anemometers (50 Hz), arranged parallel to the dominant incident wind direction. Large eddy simulation (LES) of the offshore wind flow over the dune was conducted using the open‐source CFD tool openFOAM. The computational domain included a terrain model obtained by airborne LiDAR and detailed ground DGPS measurements. The computational grid (~22 million cells) included localized mesh refinement near the complex foredune terrain to capture finer details of the dune morphology that might affect wind flows on the adjacent beach. Measured and simulated wind flow are presented and discussed. The CFD simulations offer new insights into the flow mechanics associated with offshore winds and how the terrain steering of wind flow impacts on the geomorphological behaviour of the dune system. Simulation of 3‐D wind flows over complex terrain such as dune systems, presents a valuable new tool for geomorphological research, as it enables new insights into the relationship between the wind field and the underlying topography. The results show that offshore and obliquely offshore winds result in flow reversal and onshore directed winds at distances of up to 20 m from the embryo dune toe. The potential geomorphological significance of the findings are discussed and simple calculations show that incoming offshore and obliquely offshore winds with mean velocities over 13 m s^?1 and 7 m s^?1, respectively, have the potential to create onshore‐directed winds at the back beach with mean velocities above 3.3 m s^?1. These are above the threshold of movement for dry sand and support previous conclusions about the significance of offshore winds in dune and beach budget calculations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.