Lunar structure and dynamics - results from the apollo passive seismic experiment

Analysis of seismic signals from man-made impacts, moonquakes, and meteoroid impacts has established the presence of a lunar crust, approximately 60 km thick in the region of the Apollo seismic network; an underlying zone of nearly constant seismic velocity extending to a depth of about 1000 km, referred to as the mantle; and a lunar core, beginning at a depth of about 1000 km, in which shear waves are highly attenuated suggesting the presence of appreciable melting. Seismic velocitites in the crust reach 7 km s^–1 beneath the lower-velocity surface zone. This velocity corresponds to that expected for the gabbroic anorthosites found to predominate in the highlands, suggesting that rock of this composition is the major constituent of the lunar crust. The upper mantle velocity of about 8 km s^–1 for compressional waves corresponds to those of terrestrial olivines, pyroxenites and peridotites. The deep zone of melting may simply represent the depth at which solidus temperatures are exceeded in the lower mantle. If a silicate interior is assumed, as seems most plausible, minimum temperatures of between 1450°C and 1600°C at a depth of 1000 km are implied. The generation of deep moonquakes, which appear to be concentrated in a zone between 600 km and 1000 km deep, may now be explained as a consequence of the presence of fluids which facilitate dislocation. The preliminary estimate of meteoroid flux, based upon the statistics of seismic signals recorded from lunar impacts, is between one and three orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates from Earth-based measurements.Paper dedicated to Professor Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April, 1973.     

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10–20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean’s thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.     

Sulfur in peat-forming systems of the Okefenokee Swamp and Florida Everglades: origins of sulfur in coal

Six sulfur forms were investigated in profiles of freshwater- and marine-derived peat-forming systems of the Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia and Everglades Swamp, Florida. Total sulfur levels of 0.1–10% were found, thus indicating a major incorporation of sulfur in the very early stages of coal formation. The quantities of hydrogen sulfide and elemental sulfur observed appeared to be indicative of whether marine or freshwater conditions prevailed at the site of deposition. Carbon-bonded sulfur accounted for 70% of the total sulfur in the freshwater peat and 50% of the total sulfur in the marine peat. Over 15% of the total sulfur was in pyritic combination in the marine environment, while levels of pyrite in the freshwater peats were an order of magnitude lower. An ester-sulfate fraction represented 25% of the total sulfur in both freshwater and marine peats. The levels of sulfur forms in the peat profiles are compared to those observed in living plants and to various coals; levels of pyrite and organic sulfur in the peat are similar to those found by other investigators in freshwater-derived and marine-derived coals.     

Geology and tectonics of Neoproterozoic salt diapirs and salt sheets in the eastern Willouran Ranges,South Australia

Allochthonous salt structures and associated primary and secondary minibasins are exposed in Neoproterozoic strata of the eastern Willouran Ranges, South Australia. Detailed geologic mapping using high‐quality airborne hyperspectral remote‐sensing data and satellite imagery, combined with a qualitative structural restoration, are used to elucidate the evolution of this complex, long‐lived (>250 Myr) salt system. Field observations and interpretations at a resolution unobtainable from seismic or well data provide a means to test published models of allochthonous salt emplacement and associated salt‐sediment interaction derived from subsurface data in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Salt diapirs and sheets are represented by megabreccias of nonevaporite lithologies that were originally interbedded with evaporites that have been dissolved and/or altered. Passive diapirism began shortly after deposition of the Callanna Group layered evaporite sequence. A primary basin containing an expulsion‐rollover structure and megaflap is flanked by two vertical diapirs. Salt flowed laterally from the diapirs to form a complex, multi‐level canopy, now partly welded, containing an encapsulated minibasin and capped by suprasalt basins. Salt and minibasin geometries were modified during the Late Cambrian–Ordovician Delamerian Orogeny (ca. 500 Ma). Small‐scale structures such as subsalt shear zones, fractured or mixed ‘rubble zones’ and thrust imbricates are absent beneath allochthonous salt and welds in the eastern Willouran Ranges. Instead, either undeformed strata or halokinetic drape folds that include preserved diapir roof strata are found directly below the transition from steep diapirs to salt sheets. Allochthonous salt first broke through the diapir roofs and then flowed laterally, resulting in variable preservation of the subsalt drape folds. Lateral salt emplacement was presumably on roof‐edge thrusts or, because of the shallow depositional environment, via open‐toed advance or extrusive advance, but without associated subsalt deformation.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

Model of the W3(OH) Environment Based on Data for Both Maser and “Quasi-Thermal” Methanol Lines

In studies of the environment of massive young stellar objects, recent progress in both observations and theory allows a unified treatment of data for maser and quasi-thermal lines. Interferometric maser images provide information on the distribution and kinematics of masing gas on small spatial scales. Observations of multiple masing transitions provide constraints on the physical parameters.Interferometric data on quasi-thermal molecular lines permits an investigation of the overall distribution and kinematics of the molecular gas in the vicinity of young stellar objects, including those which are deeply embedded. Using multiple transitions of different molecules, one can obtain good constraints on the physical and chemical parameters. Combining these data enables the construction of unified models, which take into account spatial scales differing by orders of magnitude.Here, we present such a combined analysis of the environment around the ultracompact HII region in W3(OH). This includes the structure of the methanol masing region, physical structure of the near vicinity of W3(OH), detection of new masers in the large-scale shock front and embedded sources in the vicinity of the TW young stellar object.     

Moonquakes and lunar tectonism

With the succesful installation of a geophysical station at Hadley Rille, on July 31, 1971, on the Apollo 15 mission, and the continued operation of stations 12 and 14 approximately 1100 km SW, the Apollo program for the first time achieved a network of seismic stations on the lunar surface. A network of at least three stations is essential for the location of natural events on the Moon. Thus, the establishment of this network was one of the most important milestones in the geophysical exploration of the Moon. The major discoveries that have resulted to date from the analysis of seismic data from this network can be summarized as follows:

1. Lunar seismic signals differ greatly from typical terrestrial seismic signals. It now appears that this can be explained almost entirely by the presence of a thin dry, heterogeneous layer which blankets the Moon to a probable depth of few km with a maximum possible depth of about 20 km. Seismic waves are highly scattered in this zone. Seismic wave propagation within the lunar interior, below the scattering zone, is highly efficient. As a result, it is probable that meteoroid impact signals are being received from the entire lunar surface.
2. The Moon possesses a crust and a mantle, at least in the region of the Apollo 12 and 14 stations. The thickness of the crust is between 55 and 70 km and may consist of two layers. The contrast in elastic properties of the rocks which comprise these major structural units is at least as great as that which exists between the crust and mantle of the earth. (See Toks?zet al., p. 490, for further discussion of seismic evidence of a lunar crust.)
3. Natural lunar events detected by the Apollo seismic network are moonquakes and meteoroid impacts. The average rate of release of seismic energy from moonquakes is far below that of the Earth. Although present data do not permit a completely unambiguous interpretation, the best solution obtainable places the most active moonquake focus at a depth of 800 km; slightly deeper than any known earthquake. These moonquakes occur in monthly cycles; triggered by lunar tides. There are at least 10 zones within which the repeating moonquakes originate.
4. In addition to the repeating moonquakes, moonquake ‘swarms’ have been discovered. During periods of swarm activity, events may occur as frequently as one event every two hours over intervals lasting several days. The source of these swarms is unknown at present. The occurrence of moonquake swarms also appears to be related to lunar tides; although, it is too soon to be certain of this point.

These findings have been discussed in eight previous papers (Lathamet al., 1969, 1970, 1971) The instrument has been described by Lathamet al. (1969) and Sutton and Latham (1964). The locations of the seismic stations are shown in Figure 1.