基于Fisher判别的南方双季稻低温灾害等级预警

为了建立南方双季稻低温灾害综合预测预警技术体系, 基于南方双季稻种植区1961—2010年708个气象站的逐日气象资料、水稻生育期资料和低温灾害发生的气象行业标准,采用Fisher判别分析法、因子膨化法、相关性分析法,利用SPSS软件构建早稻春季低温灾害高风险区 (Ⅰ区) 未来10 d、晚稻寒露风高风险区 (Ⅰ区)、主灾区 (Ⅱ区) 未来5 d的低温灾害发生等级逐日滚动预警模型。其中,1961—2009年资料用于模型构建和回代检验,2010年资料用于模型的外延预测。结果表明:早稻、晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅰ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别达到90.5%,74.2%,80.3%,晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅱ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别为89.4%和80.3%。构建的南方双季稻低温灾害逐日滚动预警模型的外延预测基本一致准确率多超过80%,等级预测检验误差总体上在1个等级以内,模型评价效果较好。     

The Relationship between Jurassic Coal Measures and Sandstone-type Uranium Deposits in the Northeastern Ordos Basin, China

Outcrop and drill hole data show that the Jurassic coal measures in the northeastern Ordos Basin are composed mainly of the Yan'an Formation and the lowstand system tract of the Zhiluo Formation,and there is a regional unconformity between them. The Dongsheng uranium deposit is associated with the Jurassic coal measures. Research data indicate that the Jurassic coal measures in the study area have a certain hydrocarbon-generating capacity,although the metamorphic grade is low(Ro=0.40%–0.58%). In the Dongsheng region alone,the accumulative amount of generated coalbed methane(CBM) is about 2028.29 × 108 –2218.72 × 108 m~3; the residual amount is about 50.92 × 108 m~3,and the lost amount is about 1977 × 108 m~3. Analysis of the burial history of the host rocks and the evolutionary history of the Dongsheng uranium deposit suggests that the Jurassic coal measures generated hydrocarbon mainly from Middle Jurassic to Early Crataceous,which is the main mineralization phase of the Dongsheng uranium deposit. By the Late Cretaceous,a mass of CBM dissipated due to the strong tectonic uplift,and the Dongsheng uranium deposit stepped into the preservation phase. Therefore,the low-mature hydrocarbon-containing fluid in the Jurassic coal measures not only served as a reducing agent for the formation of sandstone-type uranium deposits,but also rendered the second reduction of paleo-interlayer oxidation zone and become the primary reducing agent for ore conservation. Regional strata correlation reveals that the sandstone-type uranium reservoir at the bottom of the Zhiluo Formation is in contact with the underlying industrial coal seams in the Yan'an Formation through incision or in the form of an unconformity surface. In the Dongsheng region with poorly developed fault systems,the unconformity surface and scour surface served as the main migration pathways for low-mature hydrocarbon-containing fluid migrating to the uranium reservoir.     

新疆西准噶尔玛依勒山地区阔依塔斯杂岩体地球化学特征及锆石U-Pb年龄

新疆西准噶尔北部广泛发育中酸性侵入岩,其形成时代为晚石炭世—早二叠世,岩石类型为辉石闪长岩、石英闪长岩和花岗闪长岩。阔依塔斯杂岩体的形成年龄为(297±2)Ma,Si O2为52.40%~67.53%;高Al2O3,14.92%~17.85%;里特曼指数(δ)小于3.3,介于1.47~1.98;富钠贫钾,K2O/Na2O为0.15~0.49;铁高而镁低,Fe OT/Mg O为1.01~1.69。其稀土配分模式右倾,轻重稀土分馏明显,具有微弱铕正异常。地球化学和年代学特征表明:岩体形成于后碰撞演化的晚期阶段,这一时间早于东准噶尔后碰撞的时间(二叠纪末)。该杂岩体主体可能为幔源岩浆底侵镁铁质下地壳,导致发生部分熔融的产物。     

An insight into the surface velocity of Inylchek Glacier and its effect on Lake Merzbacher during 2006–2016 with Landsat time-series imagery

Mountain glacier is one of the extremely sensitive indicators for climate change, and its surface motion distribution and corresponding variation are valuable information for understanding ice mass exchange and glacier dynamics. This paper presents the long-term ice velocity distributions of Inylchek Glacier in the Tianshan region by pixel-tracking algorithm with time-series Landsat imagery acquired during 2006–2016. Then the monitored ice motion fields of Inylchek Glacier were carefully analyzed and revealed a generally similar spatial distribution characteristic. Most of the ice of the North Inylchek Glacier remains in a stagnant state except for the upstream part, but a relatively high velocity of 20–40 cm/day with an RMSE of 3 cm/day was observed on most part of the South Inylchek Glacier, except for the slow-moving glacier terminus. We also state the glacier dynamics around Lake Merzbacher and their possible effect on its glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk. Besides, the surface velocity distribution on South Inylchek Glacier surface during the ablation period from 2014 to 2016 was also established and also compared with annual velocity. The corresponding difference yields that there is a positive relation between ice motion and temperature variation. Therefore, the time-series ice surface motion yielded by the Landsat imagery thus could provide us an efficient and low-cost way to analyze the current state and changes in glaciers, thanks to the continuous and regular spaceborne observations provided by the Landsat satellites.     

校正地基摄影获取树枝倾角

针对传统树枝倾角测量方法的复杂性和精度低的问题,该文提出了通过校正地基摄影获取树枝倾角的方法。基于投影变换和小孔成像原理,通过自制树枝模型的方法,分析了直接图上量取树枝倾角与真实值之间误差的成因,提出了基于投影变化的树枝倾角计算公式。结果表明:该研究获取树枝倾角的相对误差2.72%明显优于传统测量的31.33%,同时随拍摄距离变化,树枝倾角估算结果具有稳定性。该研究方法简单、有效,非常适合复杂环境下树枝倾角的大量提取,并提出了一种基于摄影成像原理获取树枝倾角的方法,发展了树枝倾角测量系统软件,提高测量精度并降低了测量难度。     

论中国国家公园地质考察与评价——以浙江丽水百山祖国家公园为例

鉴于保护地调查评价历史与目标,国家公园地质考察评价基准是地质学关于地球的“时间、空间、演化”知识的发现路径,既识别国家公园候选地的国家符合性地质事件,又识别国家公园自然性、独特性、优美性、多样性、整体性的地质机制,提供国家公园最重要的自然生态系统与自然景观保育管理的地质学支撑。浙江丽水百山祖国家公园符合性的地质事件是公园发现的4.0~4.2 Ga冥古宙陆核物质的锆石晶体、中生代岛弧陆盆火山酸性火山岩系列和从流纹岩山岭到花岗岩—变质岩谷底的“峰—岭—丘—谷（盆）”的亚热带滨海山地地貌结构,地貌结构发育演化是百山祖公园最重要的自然生态系统、区域性流域水源地、独特山水景观的形成基础。保护百祖山公园地貌结构和过程的完整性与真实性是确保其重要自然生态系统自然演化和生态服务产品持续供给的基础。     

Indicator-based spatiotemporal characteristics of apple drought in North China

Natural Hazards - Frequent occurrences of drought stress caused by dry weather create severe destroy in apple yield and quality in North China. Although appropriate drought stress is beneficial to...     

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Asian–Pacific Monsoon Region Simulated in CAMS-CSM

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) is simulated by the Climate System Model(CSM) developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS), China Meteorological Administration. Firstly, the results indicate that this new model is able to reasonably simulate the annual cycle and seasonal mean of the precipitation, as well as the vertical shear of large-scale zonal wind in the tropics. The model also reproduces the eastward and northward propagating oscillation signals similar to those found in observations. The simulation of BSISO is generally in agreement with the observations in terms of variance center, periodicity, and propagation, with the exception that the magnitude of BSISO anomalous convections are underestimated during both its eastward propagation along the equator and its northward propagation over the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon region. Our preliminary evaluation of the simulated BSISO by CAMS-CSM suggests that this new model has the capability, to a certain extent, to capture the BSISO features, including its propagation zonally along the equator and meridionally over the Asian monsoon region.     

An Assessment of ENSO Stability in CAMS Climate System Model Simulations

We present an overview of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) stability simulation using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences climate system model(CAMS-CSM). The ENSO stability was quantified based on the Bjerknes(BJ) stability index. Generally speaking, CAMS-CSM has the capacity of reasonably representing the BJ index and ENSO-related air–sea feedback processes. The major simulation biases exist in the underestimated thermodynamic damping and thermocline feedbacks. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that the underestimated thermodynamic feedback is due to the underestimation of the shortwave radiation feedback, which arises from the cold bias in mean sea surface temperature(SST) over central–eastern equatorial Pacific(CEEP). The underestimated thermocline feedback is attributed to the weakened mean upwelling and weakened wind–SST feedback(μ_a) in the model simulation compared to observation. We found that the weakened μ_a is also due to the cold mean SST over the CEEP.The study highlights the essential role of reasonably representing the climatological mean state in ENSO simulations.