Multi-models for SPI drought forecasting in the north of Haihe River Basin,China

Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R²). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.     

Optimum hysteretic damper design for multi-story timber structures represented by an improved pinching model

Timber structures are characterized by a pinching phenomenon that leads to reduced dissipative capability. A few hysteretic models have been proposed to simulate the mechanical behavior of timber structures, among which the one composed of a bilinear element and a slip element in parallel has been popular in practice. Based on this model, this paper expands on the existing seismic control design methodology to determine the capacity of hysteretic dampers for multi-story timber structures. The equivalent linearization method for a single-degree-of-freedom timber structure with added hysteretic damper is established and is verified through nonlinear timber history analysis over a wide range of structural parameters. The design formulas for determining the damper capacity for a multi-degree-of-freedom system are derived, based on the concept of adjusting the distribution of equivalent stiffness of structure. The seismic control design is applied to many buildings with randomly generated parameters and the effectiveness is confirmed through a nonlinear time history analysis with four sets of seismic excitations. An extended study has shown that the shear force pattern plays an important role in the seismic control design results and thus the performance of structures. The effectiveness of the control of residual deformations by adding dampers is also studied.     

Summer Monsoon and Annual Variability of Sea Surface Slope and Their Effects on Alongshore Current near Qingdao

Based on the monthly mean sea level data obtained from 3 years‘ (1999--2001) tide-gauge measurements, the annual variability of the sea level near Qingdao and Jiaozhou Bay is studied and discussed in this paper. Results show that the sea surface height at all the tide gauges becomes higher in summer than that in winter,with an obvious seasonal variability. Furthermore the sea surface height measured at a short distance outside the bay is lower than that in the bay, showing a sea surface slope downward from north to south. The reasons for the formation of the slope are explained as well. The dynamic action of the summer monsoon and the sea surface slope, and their effects on the monthly mean current are studied by means of dynamics principles. The importance of the summer monsoon and the pressure gradient generated by the sea surface slope, with their effects on the alongshore current, is pointed out and emphasized in this paper.     

An enhanced bit-wise parallel algorithm for real-time GPS software receiver

Software-based global positioning system (GPS) receivers perform all the baseband signal processing and the high level functions on a general purpose processor. The heavy computational loads of the signal correlation in baseband processing make it difficult for software receivers to operate in real time. In order to improve the real-time performance, an enhanced bit-wise parallel algorithm has been developed in this study. The enhanced algorithm has been implemented and tested in a 12 channels real-time GPS software receiver. The system consists of a radio frequency front end, a data acquisition board and software that runs on a laptop with a Pentium-M 1.5 GHz processor running the Window^® XP operating system. The data acquisition board packs the 2-bit intermediate frequency samples with a 2-bit in/8-bit out shift register and transfers the packed samples to laptop through a USB port. The software running on the laptop performs all the baseband and navigation processing in real time. The test results show that the enhanced algorithm significantly improves the real-time performance of the software receiver by reducing the computational operations for signal correlation by 50% compared with the existing bit-wise parallel algorithm. Furthermore, the enhanced algorithm also reduces the amount of required memory for storing data for signal correlation.     

城市地下管线点测量中存在质量问题的分析

通过近年来从事地下管线探测工作中,发现、总结管线点测量存在的质量问题以及所呈现出的规律性,结合测绘新技术、分析影响管线点测量质量的一些因素,从而使测绘生产单位进一步了解测绘产品生产过程中容易出现的质量问题,便于采取积极、有效的预防措施,使测绘产品质量进一步得到提高,做到对单位负责,对使用产品的用户负责。     

渤海湾盆地歧口凹陷地层压力结构特征

深化含油气沉积盆地的压力结构研究,厘清异常压力的空间展布,对划分含油气系统、评价有利输导体系与明确勘探甜点区带具有重要的理论和实践意义。为深化渤海湾盆地富油凹陷的油气二次勘探,本文以歧口凹陷为研究对象,对其压力结构进行重点刻画。在实测地层压力的校正下,综合单井、连井和二维地震地层压力结构分析,厘清了歧口凹陷的压力结构特征,识别出4类纵向压力结构：①单超压带结构;②双超压带结构;③多超压带结构;④静水压力结构。纵向上,歧口地区存在3类纵向压力系统样式——单超压系统、双超压系统、静水常压系统。双超压系统是歧口凹陷的主要压力系统样式,广泛发育于主凹和各大次凹;从凹陷中心向盆地边缘,双超压系统逐渐向单超压系统、静水常压系统过渡。单超压系统主要分布于盆地边缘的斜坡和潜山区,如歧北高斜坡、羊三木-扣村潜山等。静水常压系统则主要分布在离深凹区更远的沈青庄潜山和埕北斜坡区域。上部超压系统和下部超压系统的顶板分别位于东营组和沙三段内部,侧向上受盆地边缘和深大断裂控制。上部超压系统的形成主要受欠压实作用控制,以歧口主凹为中心呈环带分布;而下部超压系统的形成主要受生烃作用控制,以主凹和几大次凹为中心分布。未来,下部超压系统中保存的天然气将成为歧口地区超深层天然气勘探的重点对象。     

Characteristics and origins of middle Miocene mounds and channels in the northern South China Sea

Numerous elongated mounds and channels were found at the top of the middle Miocene strata using 2D/3D seismic data in the Liwan Sag of Zhujiang River Mouth Basin(ZRMB) and the Beijiao Sag of Qiongdongnan Basin(QDNB). They occur at intervals and are rarely revealed by drilling wells in the deepwater areas. Origins of the mounds and channels are controversial and poorly understood. Based on an integrated analysis of the seismic attribute, palaeotectonics and palaeogeography, and drilling well encountering a mound, research results show that these mounds are dominantly distributed on the depression centres and/or slopes of the Liwan and Beijiao sags and developed in a bathyal sedimentary environment. In the Liwan and Beijiao sags, the mounds between channels(sub) parallel to one another are 1.0–1.5 km and 1.5–2.0 km wide, 150–300 m and 150–200 m high, and extend straightly from west to east for 5–15 km and 8–20 km, respectively. Mounds and channels in the Liwan Sag are parallel with the regional slope. Mounds and channels in the Beijiao Sag, however, are at a small angle to the regional slope. According to internal geometry, texture and external morphology of mounds, the mounds in Beijiao Sag are divided into weak amplitude parallel reflections(mound type I), blank or chaotic reflections(mound type II), and internal mounded reflections(mound type Ⅲ). The mounds in Liwan Sag, however, have the sole type, i.e., mound type I. Mound type I originates from the incision of bottom currents and/or gravity flows. Mound type II results from gravity-driven sediments such as turbidite. Mound type Ⅲ is a result of deposition and incision of bottom currents simultaneously. The channels with high amplitude between mounds in the Beijiao and Liwan sags are a result of gravity-flow sediments and it is suggested they are filled by sandstone.Whereas channels with low-mediate amplitudes are filled by bottom-current sediments only in the Beijiao Sag,where they are dominantly composed of mudstone. This study provides new insights into the origins of the mounds and channels worldwide.     

灾害性天气实况智能警示系统

介绍了江苏省灾害性天气实况警示系统,该系统对9210系统下发的全省重要天气实况报文解码入库、分析处理,以声音、图像、短信、电子邮件等多种方式进行智能报警,通过图形处理终端进行实时显示。这种灾害性天气实况的网络联防和智能报警功能,为预报员及时监测灾害性天气的发生发展、进行联防和开展准确及时的预报服务提供了重要的实时信息。     

淮河下游暴雨和非暴雨天气特征分析

选用2003年6月21日到7月11日梅汛期12次暴雨和9次非暴雨过程,对其天气形势、物理量进行了合成平均对比分析;结合副热带高压脊线和地面锋面的位置,利用T213的20：00格点资料,计算和绘制了暴雨日和非暴雨日的合成平均物理量场,分析两类天气的热力和动力条件特征,揭示了它们之间的差异,并在此基础上建立了暴雨短期预报的概念模式。     

某电站地下厂房裂隙发育规律及其对围岩稳定性的影响

裂隙岩体内的洞室围岩块体稳定问题是抽水蓄能电站地下厂房建设中要解决的重要工程地质问题。为了在厂房开挖之前较准确地预测不稳定块体的发育位置,本文以某抽水蓄能电站为例,对厂房探洞内的裂隙进行统计分析,结合厂房区构造断层的发育情况,确定了裂隙发育规律;根据裂隙发育规律将厂房区岩体划分为A、B、C、D、E 5个构造分区;并利用Unwedge程序,以各分区裂隙组合为基础,确定可能形成的块体位置,评价了其稳定性状况。研究结果表明,裂隙受多期构造控制,在一定范围内具有方向性,A、E区优势裂隙与构造产状接近,B、C、D区优势裂隙与构造产状斜交;裂隙在厂房上、下游侧边墙各形成6处潜在不稳定块体,顶拱处形成10处潜在不稳定块体,右端墙处形成1处潜在不稳定块体。