Impacts of temperature anomalies on mortality of benthic organisms in the Adriatic Sea

Recurrent climate‐induced mass mortality episodes have been recorded in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 15 years, affecting rocky benthic communities. In this study, we provide for the first time a report on the annual mortality events of benthic sessile invertebrates occurring in the eastern part of the Adriatic Sea. Over the course of 14 consecutive years, we studied the sea temperature gradient to a depth of 40 m and found an abnormal summer warming trend and an increased frequency of above‐average temperatures. Mortality events were recorded in the summers of 10 observed years, in particular in 2009, when the highest mortality rates were recorded. Late in summer 2009, extensive mass mortality of sessile invertebrates was observed in the entire Eastern Adriatic Sea. We performed an analysis of selected target benthic species associated with mass mortality events with inter‐regional differences in hydrological and temperature conditions. We were able to characterize the mortality event by studying five areas covering the northern, central and southern regions of the Eastern Adriatic Sea. The degree of impact on each study area was quantified at 28 sites by estimating the proportion of affected target species. According to the obtained data, the northern sites (Cres area) were the least affected, whereas sites in the Central and Southern Adriatic [Tela??ica and Lastovo Nature Parks, Mljet National Park (NP)] displayed the highest impact. In summer 2009, sea surface temperatures reached values of 28 °C in the Cres area and 30 °C in Mljet NP. These thermal conditions were concomitant with moderate to severe mass mortalities of benthic populations. Mass mortality events reached depths of 45 m in most parts of the affected areas. Amongst studied species, the scleractinian coral and gorgonian populations suffered the most extensive damage during the mass mortality events.     

The need for data: natural disasters and the challenges of database management

Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management.     

2021 JGS best paper award and the editors’ choice paper volume 24(1)

Journal of Geographical Systems -     

Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling

This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km² is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO₂ content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.     

Determination of adsorbed and absorbed polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in seawater microorganisms

To distinguish between adsorbed and absorbed PCBs in seawater microorganisms, 2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl (IUPAC #153; HCB) was added to a pure culture of Chrysochromulina apheles Moestrup et H.A. Thomsen. After the addition of the HCB, the cells were immediately harvested onto 2 μm polycarbonate filters and rinsed with a gradient of ethanol concentrations. Rinsing with 40% ethanol (v/v) was found to remove 80% of the HCB, which was loosely adsorbed to the cell surfaces, but did not extract the interior of the cells, as tested by chlorophyll a analysis. This method was used in a time course experiment which estimated PCBs adsorption and absorption to different groups of plankton organisms. Three different ¹⁴C-PCBs, 4-chlorobiphenyl (IUPAC #3; MCB), 2,2′,5,5′-tetrachlorobiphenyl (IUPAC #52; TCB), and 2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl (IUPAC #153, HCB), were incubated in seawater from the northern Baltic Sea during a spring bloom. Samples were taken every third day and separated by filtration into three fractions; 0.2–2 μm (bacteria), 2–10 μm (flagellates), and >10 μm (microplankton; phytoplankton and protozoa). Two subsamples were retained from each size fraction. One of the subsamples was left untreated, to obtain adsorbed plus absorbed PCB, while the other subsample was rinsed with 40% of ethanol, to obtain the absorbed PCB. The sorption was found to vary depending on the hydrophobicity of the compounds, the structure of the cell membranes, and the lipid content and composition of the cells. The absorption increased for the TCB and the HCB in the largest size fraction over time, which coincided with an increase of the neutral and non-polar lipids.     

Effect of wave-induced mixing on Antarctic sea ice in a high-resolution ocean model

Ocean Dynamics - In this study, we investigate how sea ice extent and thickness are affected by additional turbulent mixing from unbroken surface waves. This ‘surface wave mixing’ (SWM)...     

Establishing irrigation potential of a hillside aquifer in the African highlands

Feeding 9 billion people in 2050 will require sustainable development of all water resources, both surface and subsurface. Yet, little is known about the irrigation potential of hillside shallow aquifers in many highland settings in sub-Saharan Africa that are being considered for providing irrigation water during the dry monsoon phase for smallholder farmers. Information on the shallow groundwater being available in space and time on sloping lands might aid in increasing food production in the dry monsoon phase. Therefore, the research objective of this work is to estimate potential groundwater storage as a potential source of irrigation water for hillside aquifers where lateral subsurface flow is dominant. The research was carried out in the Robit Bata experimental watershed in the Lake Tana basin which is typical of many undulating watersheds in the Ethiopian highlands. Farmers have excavated more than 300 hand dug wells for irrigation. We used 42 of these wells to monitor water table fluctuation from April 16, 2014 to December 2015. Precipitation and runoff data were recorded for the same period. The temporal groundwater storage was estimated using two methods: one based on the water balance with rainfall as input and baseflow and evaporative losses leaving the watershed as outputs; the second based on the observed rise and fall of water levels in wells. We found that maximum groundwater storage was at the end of the rain phase in September after which it decreased linearly until the middle of December due to short groundwater retention times. In the remaining part of the dry season period, only wells located close to faults contained water. Thus, without additional water sources, sloping lands can only be used for significant irrigation inputs during the first 3 months out of the 8 months long dry season.