A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Statistical evidence for long-range space-time relationships between large earthquakes

Whether large earthquakes are triggered by other large earthquakes at very large distances, and at time scales where the triggered event is delayed by more than several days or weeks, is an open question. Here I provide statistical evidence to show that large earthquakes near the subduction zones of the Pacific plate boundary lessen significantly the average time until the next large earthquake that occurs near the boundaries of the smaller and adjacent Nazca and Cocos plates in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In addition, the existence and importance of this relationship is enriched by the finding that the larger the magnitude of the Pacific plate earthquake, the more likely it becomes that the time until the next earthquake in the distant triggered zone is less than the time since the last earthquake in the triggered zone. There are also specific regions along the western and northern Pacific plates where these relationships appear to be particularly prominent. The findings call into question the notion that the hazard of large earthquakes in distant regions is not raised following other large earthquakes, and they provide statistical evidence for relationships between earthquakes occurring months apart on different plates.     

First record of the Australian ascidian Eudistoma elongatum in northern New Zealand

A colonial ascidian was first reported by marine farmers in Houhora Harbour, Northland, New Zealand in early 2005 and subsequently found on oyster racks in Parengarenga Harbour and the Bay of Islands. The Northland ascidian was identified with a combination of morphological characters and DNA cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) sequence data, as Eudistoma elongatum, a species native to Australia, where it is found from northern New South Wales to Northern Queensland, and distinguished from Eudistoma circumvallatum, the only reported species in this genus from New Zealand. Ascidian larvae are weak dispersers and long distance dispersal of E. elongatum is likely to be enhanced by vectors such as oyster barges and/or movement of cultured oysters. In its native range, E. elongatum is restricted to areas with a minimum winter sea temperature of 16°C. Assuming similar biological limitations apply in New Zealand, the spread of E. elongatum might be restricted to northern New Zealand (north of latitude 37°S).     

Characteristics and implications of some Loch Lomond Stadial moraine ridges and later landforms,eastern Lake District,northern England

Moraine ridges and mounds of inferred Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS) age have been mapped at three sites (Fordingdale, Swindale and Wet Sleddale) in part of the eastern Lake District, northern England, and indicate glaciers were more widespread than envisaged by Sissons (1980, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh: Earth Sciences, Vol. 71, pp. 13–27). The moraines delimit closely the downslope/downvalley limits of the former glaciers but there is no geomorphological evidence with which to define their upslope/upvalley margins. The former glaciers are considered to have been nourished within the confines of their individual valley, cirque and hillside embayment respectively, rather than being outlet glaciers of plateau icefields. Estimated equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) are within the range of values determined previously for LLS glaciers in the Lake District and do not necessitate revision of established palaeoclimatic parameters. Individual ELAs were probably influenced by local factors; all three former glaciers had accumulation-area aspects between north and east, limiting the impact of direct solar radiation during the ablation season, and were adjacent to extensive areas of high ground to the west and/or south that would have facilitated transfer of snow to their surfaces by winds from those directions. In Fordingdale, three essentially contemporaneous depositional landforms occur upslope of the moraines and are considered to represent hillslope adjustments following wastage of glacier ice from the site. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomasking sensitive health data and privacy protection: an evaluation using an E911 database

Geomasking is used to provide privacy protection for individual address information while maintaining spatial resolution for mapping purposes. Donut geomasking and other random perturbation geomasking algorithms rely on the assumption of a homogeneously distributed population to calculate displacement distances, leading to possible under-protection of individuals when this condition is not met. Using household data from 2007, we evaluated the performance of donut geomasking in Orange County, North Carolina. We calculated the estimated k-anonymity for every household based on the assumption of uniform household distribution. We then determined the actual k-anonymity by revealing household locations contained in the county E911 database. Census block groups in mixed-use areas with high population distribution heterogeneity were the most likely to have privacy protection below selected criteria. For heterogeneous populations, we suggest tripling the minimum displacement area in the donut to protect privacy with a less than 1% error rate.     

A multiple indicator, multiple cause method for representing social capital with an application to psychological distress

This paper describes a structural equation methodology for obtaining social capital scores for survey subjects from multiple indicators of social support, neighbourhood and trust perceptions, and memberships of organizations. It adjusts for variation that is likely to occur in levels of social capital according to geographic context (e.g. level of area deprivation, geographic region, level of urbanity) and demographic group. Social capital is used as an explanatory factor for psychological distress using data from the 2006 Health Survey for England. A highly significant effect of social capital in reducing the chance of psychiatric caseness is obtained after controlling for other individual and geographic risk factors. Allowing for social capital has considerable effects on the impacts on psychiatric health of other risk factors. In particular, the impact of area deprivation category is much reduced. There is also evidence of significant differentiation in social capital between population categories and geographic contexts.     

High‐Precision,High‐Accuracy Oxygen Isotope Measurements of Zircon Reference Materials with the SHRIMP‐SI

Analytical protocols for SHRIMP‐SI oxygen isotope analysis (δ¹⁸O) of a suite of zircon reference materials (RMs) are presented. Data reduction involved a robust estimate of uncertainties associated with the individual spot as well as for groups where the spot data are combined. The repeatability of δ¹⁸O measurements is dependent on both the analytical conditions and the choice of the primary reference material. Under optimised conditions, repeatability was often better than 0.4‰ (2s) allowing sample uncertainties to be obtained to better than 0.2‰ (at 95% confidence limit). Single spot uncertainty combined the within‐spot precision with the scatter associated with repeated measurements of the primary zircon reference material during a measurement session. The uncertainty for individual spots measured under optimised conditions was between 0.3 and 0.4‰ (at 95% confidence). The analytical protocols described were used to assess a variety of zircon RMs that have been used for geochronology and for which laser fluorination oxygen isotope data are available (Temora 2, FC1, R33, QGNG and Ple?ovice), as well as zircons that have been used as RMs for trace element or other types of determination (Mud Tank, Monastery, 91500, AS57, AS3, KIM‐5, OG1, SL13, CZ3 and several other Sri Lankan zircons). Repeated analyses over nine sessions and seven different mounts show agreement within analytical uncertainty for Temora 2, FC1, R33, QGNG, Ple?ovice and 91500, when normalised to Mud Tank. For existing ion microprobe mounts with these materials, an appropriate δ¹⁸O can be determined. However, care should be taken when using zircons from the Duluth Complex (i.e., FC1, AS57 and AS3) as reference materials as our data indicated an excess scatter on δ¹⁸O values associated with low‐U zircon grains.