Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Polarimetry of Pluto

The polarization of Pluto has been measured for a range of solar phase angles from 0.8 to 1.8°. A mean linear polarization of 0.29 ± 0.01% (error of the mean) was found. No dependence of both the amount of polarization and position angles with rotational phase or solar phase angle could be detected. The positional angles of polarization agree with calculated position angles of the defect of illumination and are therefore parallel to the scattering plane. The observed polarization cannot be explained as resulting purely from a surface material which is similar to asteroidal surfaces. A hypothesis of polarization from a thin atmosphere, in addition to the surface polarization, is advanced.     

Effects of hydrocarbon contamination on a free living marine nematode community: results from microcosm experiments

Anthropogenic inputs of crude and refined petroleum hydrocarbons into the sea require knowledge of the effects of these contaminants on the receiving assemblages of organisms. A microcosm experiment was carried out to study the influence of diesel on a free living nematode community of a Tunisian lagoon. Sediments were contaminated by diesel that ranged in concentration from 0.5 to 20 mg diesel kg⁻¹ dry weight (dw), and effects were examined after 90 days. Gradual changes in community structure were revealed depending on the quantity of diesel administrated. In the medium (1 mg diesel kg⁻¹ and 5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) and high (10 mg diesel kg⁻¹, 15 mg diesel kg⁻¹ and 20 mg kg⁻¹ (dw)) treated microcosms, most univariate measures, including diversity and species richness, decreased significantly with increasing level of diesel contamination whereas nematode assemblage from the low treated microcosm (0.5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) remained unaffected. Results from multivariate analyses of the species abundance data demonstrated that responses of nematode species to the diesel treatments were varied: Chaetonema sp. was eliminated at all doses tested and seemed to be intolerant species to diesel contamination; Pomponema sp. and Oncholaimus campylocercoïdes were significantly affected at all diesel contamination levels but they were not eliminated, these species were categorized as “diesel-sensitive”; Hypodontolaimus colesi, Daptonema trabeculosum and Daptonema fallax which significantly increased respectively at 0.5, 1 and 5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw) concentrations and appeared to be “opportunistic” species at these doses whereas Marylynnia stekhoveni which increased at all high doses (10, 15 and 20 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) seemed to be a “diesel-resistant” species.     

Molluscs as multidisciplinary models in environment toxicology

The primary goal of this paper is to stimulate discussion and promote the use of mollusc models and multidisciplinary research approaches in the field of environmental toxicology. Molluscs are effective models because they are ubiquitous, have highly conserved control and regulatory pathways that are often homologous to vertebrate systems, and are extremely sensitive to anthropogenic inputs. We have attempted to provide initial references as an avenue into the literature and as a means for researchers to expand their thoughts to regions outside of their own area of expertise. The authors are particularly interested in developing multidisciplinary international collaborative efforts.     

Effects of gravity-gradient torque on the rotational motion of A triaxial satellite in a precessing elliptic orbit

A method of general perturbations, based on the use of Lie series to generate approximate canonical transformations, is applied to study the effects of gravity-gradient torque on the rotational motion of a triaxial, rigid satellite. The center of mass of the satellite is constrained to move in an elliptic orbit about an attracting point mass. The orbit, which has a constant inclination, is free to precess and spin. The method of general perturbations is used to obtain the Hamiltonian for the nonresonant secular and long-period rotational motion of the satellite to second order inn/0, wheren is the orbital mean motion of the center of mass and0 is a reference value of the magnitude of the satellite's rotational angular velocity. The differential equations derivable from the transformed Hamiltonian are integrable and the solution for the long-term motion may be expressed in terms of Jacobian elliptic functions and elliptic integrals. Geometrical aspects of the long-term rotational motion are discussed and a comparison of theoretical results with observations is made.