Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF?≥?50,000 ac?~?20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p?≤?0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of VLWFs d7epend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited areas such as the Pacific Northwest show that (with high model agreement) the frequency of weeks with VLWFs in a given year is 2–2.7 more likely. However, frequency of weeks with at least one VLWF in fuel-limited systems like the Western Great Basin is 1.3 times more likely (with low model agreement). Thus, areas where fire is directly associated with hot and dry climate, as opposed to experiencing lagged effects from previous years, experience more change in the likelihood of VLWF in future projections. The results provide a quantitative foundation for management to mitigate the effects of VLWFs.     

Analysis of wave propagation in dry granular soils using DEM simulations

In this paper, a three-dimensional particle-based technique utilizing the discrete element method (DEM) is proposed to study wave propagation in a dry granular soil column. Computational simulations were conducted to investigate the soil response to sinusoidal motions with different amplitudes and frequencies. Three types of soil deposits with different void ratios were employed in these simulations. Different boundary conditions at the base such as rigid bedrock, elastic bedrock, and infinite medium were also considered. Analysis is done in time domain while taking into account the effects of soil nonlinear behavior. The computational approach is able to capture a number of essential characteristics of wave propagation including motion amplification and resonance. Dynamic soil properties were then extracted from conducted simulations and used to predict the response of the soil using the widely used equivalent linear method program SHAKE and compare its predictions to DEM results. Generally, there was a good agreement between SHAKE and DEM results except when the exciting frequency was close to the resonance frequency of the deposit where significant discrepancy in computed shear strains between SHAKE predictions and DEM results was observed.     

Calculated spectra for HeH+ and its effect on the opacity of cool metal-poor stars

The wavelength and Einstein A coefficient are calculated for all rotation–vibration transitions of  ⁴He¹H⁺, ³He¹H⁺, ⁴He²H⁺  and  ³ He²H⁺  , giving a complete line list and the partition function for  ⁴HeH⁺  and its isotopologues. This opacity is included in the calculation of the total opacity of low-metallicity stars and its effect is analysed for different conditions of temperature, density and hydrogen number fraction. For a low helium number fraction (as in the Sun), it is found that HeH⁺ has a visible but small effect for very low densities  (ρ≤ 10⁻¹⁰ g cm⁻³)  , at temperatures around 3500 K. However, for high helium number fraction, the effect of HeH⁺ becomes important for higher densities  (ρ≤ 10⁻⁶ g cm⁻³)  , its effect being most important for a temperature around 3500 K. Synthetic spectra for a variety of different conditions are presented.     

Tremolite decomposition on Venus II. Products, kinetics, and mechanism

We present revised tremolite powder thermal decomposition kinetics using previous and newly acquired data from longer time (years instead of months) and lower temperature experiments (<1073 K). We also present kinetic results for decomposition of millimeter- to centimeter-sized tremolite grains. Natural tremolite samples were heated at ambient pressure in flowing CO₂ or N₂ gas from 1023-1238 K. The tremolite decomposition products are a physical mixture of two pyroxene solid solutions (with the bulk composition Dp₅₉En₄₁), a silica polymorph, and water vapor. Decomposition rates were calculated by using the mass loss of the heated samples. Tremolite crystals and crystalline powder decompositions follow different but related Avrami-Erofe'ev (nucleation and growth) kinetic models. The rate equations for thermal decomposition of tremolite crystalline powder and the larger crystal grains are log₁₀k_powder (h⁻¹)=18.69(±0.19)−23,845(±833)/T and log₁₀k_crystal (h⁻¹)=19.82(±0.07)−25,670(±916)/T. The associated apparent activation energies are 456(±16) kJ mol⁻¹ and 491(±18) kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. We propose a decomposition mechanism and suggest that decomposition and dehydroxylation occur simultaneously. The rate-limiting step is proposed to be structural rearrangement of the amphibole structure to the two pyroxenes and silica. This step and the overall decomposition rate are predicted to be independent of pressure from 1 to 100 bars. These kinetic analyses strengthen our previous conclusion (Johnson and Fegley, 2000, Icarus 146, 301-306) that if hydrous minerals, such as tremolite, formed on Venus during a wetter past, then these minerals could still exist at current conditions on Venus' surface today.     

Crystalline silicates in comets: How did they form?

Two processes have been proposed to explain observations of crystalline silicate minerals in comets and in protostellar sources, both of which rely on the thermal annealing of amorphous grains. First, high temperatures generated by nebular shock processes can rapidly produce crystalline magnesium silicate grains and will simultaneously produce a population of crystalline iron silicates whose average grain size is ∼10-15% that of the magnesium silicate minerals. Second, exposure of amorphous silicate grains to hot nebular environments can produce crystalline magnesium silicates that might then be transported outward to regions of comet formation. At the higher temperatures required for annealing amorphous iron silicates to crystallinity the evaporative lifetime of the grains is much shorter than a single orbital period where such temperatures are found in the nebula. Thermal annealing is therefore unable to produce crystalline iron silicate grains for inclusion into comets unless such grains are very quickly transported away from the hot inner nebula. It follows that observation of pure crystalline magnesium silicate minerals in comets or protostars is a direct measure of the importance of simple thermal annealing of grains in the innermost regions of protostellar nebulae followed by dust and gas transport to the outer nebula. The presence of crystalline iron silicates would signal the action of transient processes such as shock heating that can produce crystalline iron, magnesium and mixed iron-magnesium silicate minerals. These different scenarios result in very different predictions for the organic content of protostellar systems.     

Simulating wide-field quasar surveys from the optical to near-infrared

A number of deep, wide-field, near-infrared (NIR) surveys employing new infrared cameras on 4-m class telescopes are about to commence. These surveys have the potential to determine the fraction of luminous dust-obscured quasars that may have eluded surveys undertaken at optical wavelengths. In order to understand the new observations it is essential to make accurate predictions of surface densities and number–redshift relations for unobscured quasars in the NIR based on information from surveys at shorter wavelengths. The accuracy of the predictions depends critically on a number of key components. The commonly used single power-law representation for quasar spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is inadequate and the use of an SED incorporating the upturn in continuum flux at  λ∼ 12 000 Å  is essential. The presence of quasar host galaxies is particularly important over the rest-frame wavelength interval  8000 < λ < 16 000 Å  and we provide an empirical determination of the magnitude distribution of host galaxies using a low-redshift sample of quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 3 quasar catalogue. A range of models for the dependence of host galaxy luminosity on quasar luminosity is investigated, along with the implications for the NIR surveys. Even adopting a conservative model for the behaviour of host galaxy luminosity the number counts for shallow surveys in the K band increase by a factor of 2. The degree of morphological selection applied to define candidate quasar samples in the NIR is found to be an important factor in determining the fraction of the quasar population included in such samples.     

Hydroxyl in mantle olivine xenocrysts from the Udachnaya kimberlite pipe

The incorporation of hydrogen in mantle olivine xenocrysts from the Udachnaya kimberlite pipe was investigated by Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). IR spectra were collected in the OH stretching region on oriented single crystals using a conventional IR source at ambient conditions and in situ at temperatures down to −180°C as well as with IR synchrotron radiation. The IR spectra of the samples are complex containing more than 20 strongly polarized OH bands in the range 3,730–3,330 cm⁻¹. Bands at high energies (3,730–3,670 cm⁻¹) were assigned to inclusions of serpentine, talc and the 10 Å phase. All other bands are believed to be intrinsic to olivine. The corresponding point defects are (a) associated with vacant Si sites (3,607 cm⁻¹ E || a, 3,597 E || a, 3,571 cm⁻¹ E || c, 3,567 E || c, and 3,556 E || b), and (b) with vacant M1 sites (most of the bands polarized parallel to a). From the pleochroic behavior and position of the OH bands associated with the vacant M1 sites, we propose two types of hydrogen—one bonded to O1 and another to O2, so that both OH vectors are strongly aligned parallel to a. The O2–H groups may be responsible for the OH bands at higher wavenumbers than those for the O1–H groups. The multiplicity of the corresponding OH bands in the spectra can be explained by different chemical environments and by slightly different distortions of the M1 sites in these high-pressure olivines. Four samples were investigated by SIMS. The calculated integral molar absorption coefficient using the IR and SIMS results of 37,500±5,000 L mol H₂O cm⁻² is within the uncertainties slightly higher than the value determined by Bell et al. (J Geophys Res 108(B2):2105–2113, 2003) (28,450±1,830 L mol H₂O cm⁻²). The reason for the difference is the different distributions of the absorption intensity of the spectra of both studies (mean wavenumber 3,548 vs. 3,570 cm⁻¹). Olivine samples with a mean wavenumber of about 3,548 cm⁻¹ should be quantified with the absorption coefficient as determined in this study; those containing more bands at higher wavenumber (mean wavenumber 3,570 cm⁻¹) should be quantified using the value determined by Bell et al. (J Geophys Res 108(B2):2105–2113, 2003).

Environmental Change and Terrestrial Resource Use by the Thule and Inuit of Labrador,Canada

The object of this study is to document how the Inuit on the northern coast of Labrador, Canada used terrestrial resources such as peat and wood during the Little Ice Age (LIA; A.D. 1500–1870). Paleoecological investigations consisting of pollen and macrofossil analyses were undertaken in conjunction with archaeological excavations at the Inuit winter settlement sites of Oakes Bay 1, located in the Nain region of north‐central Labrador. Our data indicate that the major changes in terrestrial ecosystems of this coastal region were triggered by climate change. From ca. 5700 to 3000 cal. yr B.P., climatic conditions were relatively warm and moist. At ca. 3000 cal. yr B.P. conditions became significantly drier and colder, which corresponds to broader climatic trends during the Neoglacial period. At ca. 1000 cal. yr B.P., the reappearance of hygrophilic species and the establishment of Larix laricina provide evidence of a return to more humid conditions that in turn triggered the onset of the paludification of sandy terraces in the Dog Island region. Peat accumulation persisted after ca. 580 cal. yr B.P. likely due to the elevation of the frost table during the LIA. Elevated frost tables contributed to water saturation of the surface during the spring, creating conditions that were conducive to the preservation of organic material. Natural resources such as trees and peat were therefore readily available and more abundant during the LIA and extensively used by the Inuit for house construction and heating in the Dog Island region.