Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.     

A new late Pleistocene subfossil site (Tsaramody,Sambaina basin,central Madagascar) with implications for the chronology of habitat and megafaunal community change on Madagascar's Central Highlands

Madagascar is a complex ‘biodiversity hotspot’ with a rapidly dwindling biota. The Late Quaternary subfossil record includes many extinct species whose loss is attributed to natural climate change and human impacts. Investigation of the chronology of these events is challenging because few localities document pre‐Holocene communities not impacted by humans. Caves with extinct lemurs of large body size comprise some of Madagascar's richest subfossil sites, but provide only a limited window into the island's past. Open highland sites may have fewer primates, but may better document other megafauna, and allow the analysis of the role of the Central Highlands as refugia and as corridors for the dispersal of vertebrates before and after human arrival. Here we present a new subfossil site, Tsaramody (Sambaina basin, Central Madagascar), a high‐altitude wetland area that preserves a diverse late glacial and postglacial vertebrate community. Tsaramody bears testimony to fluctuations in the highland flora during the transition from glacial to postglacial conditions, and the composition of a highland vertebrate community before humans arrived. We compare its biota to those of other sites to begin to document the decline and disappearance of megafauna from some of Madagascar's open ecosystems – wetlands dominated by hippopotamuses and crocodylians. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ardières-Morcille in the Beaujolais,France: A research catchment dedicated to study of the transport and impacts of diffuse agricultural pollution in rivers

The 8-km² Morcille catchment, which is a sub-catchment of the 150-km² Ardières catchment in the Beaujolais region of France, is one of the first sites in Europe where research has been conducted on surface water contamination by pesticides. A consolidated hydrological and chemical dataset has been set up with data collected since 2002 on the Morcille River and since 2011 on the Ardières River. Additional data on the ecotoxicological and ecological impacts of pesticides on aquatic microbial communities and macroinvertebrates has also been recorded in both rivers since 2005. The ‘Site Atelier Ardières-Morcille Dataset’ described here combines rainfall and stream water height measurements at gauged stations with concentrations of two trace elements and nine pesticides (mainly herbicides, fungicides and some of their metabolites) in both the Ardières and Morcille rivers. All contaminant concentration data showed spatial and temporal variability in water quality associated with pesticide use and rainfall patterns. This long-term monitoring framework made it possible to estimate the persistence of two herbicides (diuron and norflurazon) after legislation banning them. It took 4 years for diuron and more than 10 years for norflurazon concentrations to fall below 0.1 μg/L. Concurrent biological data showed a gradient of impacts consistent with chemical anthropogenic pressure, and rapid recovery of phototrophic microbial communities after the diuron ban. Finally, monitoring data on pesticide transport in a grassed strip set on a slope of the Morcille catchment confirmed that vegetative filter strips can effectively reduce diuron fluxes in surface runoff (>80% abatement) and infiltration water (>70% abatement). The full dataset offers a valuable resource for the validation of hydrological models and the development of global approaches to better understand the pressure–transport–exposure–impact chain and aquatic community resilience at the small catchment scale.     

Assessment of persistent organochlorine pollutants in sediments from Lake Manzala, Egypt

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were determined in surface and core sediment samples collected from Manzala Lake, the largest of the Egyptian coastal lakes. Total concentrations of OCPs and ∑7 PCBs (ICES) in sediments ranged from 0.63 to 31.31 ng/g and 0.26 to 31.27 ng/g, respectively. Geographical distribution indicates that levels of contaminants were significantly higher in areas which are mainly influenced by municipal discharge, indicating significant sources of these compounds in urbanised areas. The composition of DDT and its metabolites suggest old input of DDT. The levels of contaminants in Manzala Lake were similar or lower than those observed in comparable areas worldwide. The profiles of ∑OCPs and ∑PCBs in a core from a site heavily impacted by sewage discharge have highest concentrations in the surface core section indicating recent inputs. Assessment of ecotoxicological risk indicated that sediments in two sites were likely to pose potential biological adverse impact.     

Present stage of recent crustal movements and seismicity within Greater Cairo area, Egypt

Greater Cairo and the Nile Delta are considered very important, high-density population areas. The subject of the research work is dealing with recent crustal movements and its relation to seismicity and tectonics setting. A Global Positioning System (GPS) network consisting of 11 benchmarks covering Greater Cairo and the southern part of the Nile Delta was established in 1996. Different campaigns surveyed the network. In this study, we used ten measurements collected during the period from 2004 to 2010. The data were processed using Bernese 5.0 software to derive velocity vectors and principal components of crustal strains. The horizontal velocity varies in average between 3 and 6 mm per year across the network. Rate of the accumulated strains in the southern part of Greater Cairo varies from low to moderate. The low strain rates and low level of earthquakes occurrence in the present interval in the Nile Delta area indicated that the rate of the deformation in this area is small. The result from coupling GPS and seismic data indicates that the southern part of the area is seismo-active area when compared with the other parts in the network areas. The paper gives information about the present state of the recent crustal movements within Greater Cairo area to understand the geodynamics of that area. This study is an attempt to build a basis for further development of seismic catastrophic risk management models to reduce a risk of large catastrophic losses within the important area.     

Application of GIS for the identification and demarcation of selective heavy metal concentrations in the urban groundwater

Groundwater is the most appropriate and widely used source of drinking water, which is increasingly threatened by pollution from industrial and agricultural activities. To check the severity of the problem, 156 groundwater samples were collected from various depths (60-110 ft) of 52 different localities in Faisalabad city, the third largest metropolis in Pakistan, and analyzed for the metals (Zn, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb, Mn and Fe) concentration in 2009. Quantification was done by using Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer technique and the results were compared with WHO standards for drinking water quality. Results showed that the levels of Cu, Mn and Fe were below the WHO standards while the concentrations of Zn, Cd, Ni and Pb were above the recommended levels of safe drinking water. Correlation analysis among the occurrence of these heavy metals revealed a highly significant and positive correlation of Mn with Zn and Fe. A significant and positive correlation of Cd was also found with Cu and groundwater depth showing that there is strong association between Cu-Cd pair and that the Cd concentration varies with depth of groundwater in the study area. Regional patterns of heavy metals occurrence were mapped using Geographical Information System (GIS) for the identification and demarcation of risk areas. The concentration maps may be used by policymakers of the city to mitigate groundwater pollution.     

Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model

Climate change caused by anthropogenic activities has generated a variety of research focusing on investigating the past climate, predicting the future climate and quantifying the change in climate extreme events by using different climate models. Climate extreme events are valuable to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on human activities, agriculture and economy and are also useful to monitor the climate change on global scale. Here, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation is used to study the future variations in the temperature extreme indices, particularly change in frequency of warm and cold spells duration over Pakistan. The analyses are done on the basis of simulating two 30 years simulations with the Hadley Center’s RCM PRECIS, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Simulation for the period 1961–1990 represents the recent climate and simulation for the period 2071–2100 represents the future climate. These simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions from HadAM3P GCM of Hadley centre UK. For the validation of model, observed mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961–1990 at all the available stations in Pakistan are first averaged and are then compared with the PRECIS averaged grid-box data. Also the observed monthly gridded data set of Climate Research Unit (UK) data is used to validate the model. Temperature indices in the base period as well as in future are then calculated and the corresponding change is observed. Percentile based spatial change of temperature shows that in summer, increase in daily minimum temperature is more as compared to the increase of daily maximum temperature whereas in winter, the change in maximum temperature is high. The occurrence of annual cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend while for warm spells there is slight increasing trend over Pakistan.     

Seismic hazard assessment and rheological implications: a case study selected for cities of Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea

A probabilistic approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 12 strategic cities in Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea. The focal depth variations controlled by rheological characteristics are taken into account for hazard calculations, and its creditability is tested through sensitivity analysis for hazard results. This study presents a neo-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology in which the focal depth distribution of earthquakes within seismogenic layer is divided into three depth slices. These depth slices are based upon rheological characteristic of seismogenic layer. The hazard results are obtained using this depth-slice methodology and conventional approach in which uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer is assumed. The sensitivity analysis culminated in underestimation of hazard values in higher frequencies for uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer. Foregoing the observations recorded above, it can be concluded that the exploitation of depth-slices biased by the rheology to calculate hazard is relatively preferable in the situations demanding safety measures.     

Timing of Himalayan ultrahigh-pressure metamorphism: sinking rate and subduction angle of the Indian continental crust beneath Asia

Coesite relics were discovered as inclusions in clinopyroxene in eclogite and as inclusions in zircon in felsic and pelitic gneisses from Higher Himalayan Crystalline rocks in the upper Kaghan Valley, north‐west Himalaya. The metamorphic peak conditions of the coesite‐bearing eclogites are estimated to be 27–32 kbar and 700–770 °C, using garnet–pyroxene–phengite geobarometry and garnet–pyroxene geothermometry, respectively. Cathodoluminescence (CL) and backscattered electron (BSE) imaging distinguished three different domains in zircon: inner detrital core, widely spaced euhedral oscillatory zones, and thin, broadly zoned outermost rims. Each zircon domain contains a characteristic suite of micrometre‐sized mineral inclusions which were identified by in situ laser Raman microspectroscopy. Core and mantle domains contain quartz, apatite, plagioclase, muscovite and rutile. In contrast, the rim domains contain coesite and minor muscovite. Quartz inclusions were identified in all coesite‐bearing zircon grains, but not coexisting with coesite in the same growth domain (rim domain). ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U zircon ages reveal that the quartz‐bearing mantle domains and the coesite‐bearing rim were formed at c. 50 Ma and 46.2 ± 0.7 Ma, respectively. These facts demonstrate that the continental materials were buried to 100 km within 7–9 Myr after initiation of the India–Asia collision (palaeomagnetic data from the Indian oceanic floor supports an initial India‐Asia contact at 55–53 Ma). Combination of the sinking rate of 1.1–1.4 cm year^?1 with Indian plate velocity of 4.5 cm year^?1 suggests that the Indian continent subducted to about 100 km depth at an average subduction angle of 14–19°.