Climate-change driven increased flood magnitudes and frequency in the British uplands: Geomorphologically informed scientific underpinning for upland flood-risk management

Upland river systems in the UK are predicted to be prone to the effects of increased flood magnitudes and frequency, driven by climate change. It is clear from recent events that some headwater catchments can be very sensitive to large floods, activating the full sediment system, with implications for flood risk management further down the catchment. We provide a 15-year record of detailed morphological change on a 500-m reach of upland gravel-bed river, focusing upon the geomorphic response to an extreme event in 2007, and the recovery in the decade following. Through novel application of two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modelling we evaluate the different energy states of pre- and post-flood morphologies of the river reach, exploring how energy state adjusts with recovery following the event. Following the 2007 flood, morphological adjustments resulted in changes to the shear stress population over the reach, resulting in higher shear stresses. Although the proportion of shear stresses in excess of those experienced using the pre-flood digital elevation model (DEM) varied over the recovery period, they remained substantially in excess of those experienced pre-2007, suggesting that there is still potential for enhanced bedload transport and morphological adjustment within the reach. Although volumetric change calculated from DEM differencing does indicate a reduction in erosion and deposition volumes in the decade following the flood, we argue that the system still has not fully recovered to the pre-flood state. We further argue that Thinhope Burn, and other similarly impacted catchments in upland environments, may not recover under the wet climatic phase currently being experienced. Hence systems like Thinhope Burn will continue to deliver large volumes of sediment further down river catchments, providing new challenges for flood risk management into the future.     

The GEOMON network of Czech catchments provides long-term insights into altered forest biogeochemistry: From acid atmospheric deposition to climate change

In 1994, a network of small catchments (GEOMON) was established in the Czech Republic to determine input–output element fluxes in semi-natural forest ecosystems recovering from anthropogenic acidification. The network consists from 16 catchments and the primary observations of elements fluxes were complemented by monitoring of biomass stock, element pools in soil and vegetation, and the main water balance components. Over last three decades, reductions of SO₂, NO_x and NH₃ emissions were followed by sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition reductions of 75% and 30%, respectively. Steeper declines of strong acid anion concentrations compared to cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH₄) in precipitation resulted in precipitation pH increase from 4.5 to 5.2 in bulk precipitation and from 4.0 to 5.1 in spruce throughfall. Stream chemistry responded to changes in deposition: S leaching declined. However at majority of catchments soils acted as a net source of S to runoff, delaying recovery. Stream pH increased at acidic streams (pH < 6) and aluminium concentration decreased. Stream nitrate (NO₃) concentration declined by 60%, considerably more than N deposition. Stream NO₃ concentration was tightly positively related to stream total dissolved nitrogen to total phosphorus (P) ratio, suggesting the role of P availability on N retention. Trends in dissolved organic carbon fluxes responded to both acidification recovery and to runoff temporal variation. An exceptional drought occurred between 2014 and 2019. Over this recent period, streamflow decreased by ≈ 40% on average compared to 1990s, due to the increases of soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration by ≈ 30% and declines in precipitation by ≈ 15% on average across the elevational gradient. Sharp decreases of stream runoff at catchments <650 m a.s.l. corresponded to areas of recent forest decline caused by bark beetle infestation on drought stressed spruce forests. Understanding of the interactions among legacies of acidification and eutrophication, drought effects on the water cycle and forest disturbance dynamics is requisite for effective management of forested ecosystems under anthropogenic influence.     

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.     

Sediment routing hypothesis for pool‐riffle maintenance

This paper provides comprehensive evidence that sediment routing around pools is a key mechanism for pool‐riffle maintenance in sinuous upland gravel‐bed streams. The findings suggest that pools do not require a reversal in energy for them to scour out any accumulated sediments, if little or no sediments are fed into them. A combination of clast tracing using passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and bedload traps (positioned along the thalweg on the upstream riffle, pool entrance, pool exit and downstream riffle) are used to provide information on clast pathways and sediment sorting through a single pool‐riffle unit. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is also used to explore hydraulic variability and flow pathways. Clast tracing results provide a strong indication that clasts are not fed through pools, rather they are transported across point bar surfaces, or around bar edges (depending upon previous clast position, clast size, and event magnitude). Spatial variations in bedload transport were found throughout the pool‐riffle unit. The pool entrance bedload trap was often found to be empty, when the others had filled, further supporting the notion that little or no sediment was fed into the pool. The pool exit slope trap would occasionally fill with sediment, thought to be sourced from the eroding outer bank. CFD results demonstrate higher pool shear stresses (τ ≈ 140 N m^–2) in a localized zone adjacent to an eroding outer bank, compared to the upstream and downstream riffles (τ ≈ 60 N m^–2) at flows of 6 · 2 m³ s^–1 (≈ 60% of the bankfull discharge) and above. There was marginal evidence for near‐bed velocity reversal. Near‐bed streamlines, produced from velocity vectors indicate that flow paths are diverted over the bar top rather than being fed through the thalweg. Some streamlines appear to brush the outer edge of the pool for the 4 · 9 m³ s^–1 to 7 · 8 m³ s^–1 (between 50 and 80% of the bankfull discharge) simulations, however complete avoidance was found for discharges greater than this. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling of deep magnetovariation soundings on the rotating earth

Induced magnetic fields in the Earth arise due to two phenomena: induction generated by the time-variable exciting field and the motional induction caused by movement of the conductive planet in the outer magnetic fields. The comparison of both approaches on the spherical Earth has been analyzed in the present work for two sources in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. For this aim, both sources with their natural sizes and positions have been modeled analytically to obtain the fields on the layered sphere at the middle latitudes. The conditions when the steady ring current field is not influenced by the Earth’s rotation have been established theoretically. The synthetic diurnal magnetograms were used for the deep sounding by the magnetovariation spatial gradient method and the result was compared with the one obtained on the nonrotating sphere. Sounding results using both approaches were found different above the 2D inhomogeneous mantle. The precessions of the magnetospheric belt current pole for daily sampling frequency were presented using several geomagnetic observatory data in the northern hemisphere.     

Spatio-temporal changes in land cover and aquatic macrophytes of the Danube floodplain lake

The aquatic vegetation of ?í?ov Lake in the Danube floodplain, which is listed in the Ramsar Convention, was investigated to address three main questions: (1) how have landscape composition and the structures of the lake and its buffer zone changed from the mid-20th century; (2) how have species richness and the abundance of the aquatic macrophyte assemblage in this lake ecosystem changed over the last 34 years; and (3) which landscape metrics can best explain these temporal changes for floating-leaved macrophytes? Two methodological approaches, remote sensing and botanical field surveys, were applied. Historical (1949, 1970, 1990) and contemporary (2006) aerial photographs were analysed to determine land cover. Landscape configuration and structure were analysed using eight landscape metrics selected in advance to measure spatio-temporal changes and the fragmentation of the lake ecosystem and its corresponding buffer zone. The species diversity, abundance and distribution of true aquatic macrophytes were surveyed eleven times in five survey stretches between 1973 and 2007.At the landscape level, a decrease in the area covered by floating-leaved macrophytes, as well as an increase in open water surface and fragmentation of the land cover classes in the lake ecosystem, were recorded from 1949 to 2006. Overall, 30 true aquatic macrophytes were found from 1973 to 2007. Species richness did not change considerably, but the abundance of aquatic species fluctuated over the years. Three groups of true aquatic vegetation, based on common structural characteristics, were found in 1973–1983, 1989–2002, and 2004–2007 over the last 34 years. The landscape metrics NP, PD, LPI, and SHDI, which all express patterns of landscape fragmentation mostly indicate temporal changes in floating-leaved macrophytes.     

Complex system approach to interpretation of monitoring time series: two case histories from NW Bohemia

Ever wider implementation of information technologies is flooding us by monitoring data. To an efficient risk management, those data have to be processed and assessed in the same rate as they are recorded and transported. Paper demonstrates some methods dealing with intrinsic, nonlinear dynamics of slope system for computerized safety assessment of monitoring time series, their modeling and early warning launching. Analysis and modeling of phase changes – i.e. specific transient states between different developmental stages of dynamics of unstable slope systems, enabled to fix new types of precursors for rock fall warning and to enhance time prediction of rock fall occurrence. Mathematically well based, novel numerical and topological methods from the toolbox of complex system theory were successfully implemented to that challenge. Their pattern-recognition ability, i.e., diagnostic sensitivity, and more realistic results of modeling of time series relevant patterns have reached beyond ranges of regularly used—both the idea- and the data-driven—methods. Moreover, results yielded by phase space analyses are in good agreement with the ones by numerical fractal analyses. Obtained results have strengthened the primary, mainly theoretically based hypothesis; the dynamics of an unstable rock slope has to be considered as behavior of nonlinear, dissipative, non-equilibrium, self-organizing complex system. Correspondingly to the theoretical assumptions, two qualitatively different types of slope system dynamics—near to equilibrium and far from equilibrium states, were identified. All field monitoring data used originated in practice of highly automated, integrated IT system of monitoring assessment, and management of rock fall hazard at sandstone rock walls in the NW Bohemia.     

Plasma structure within poleward-moving cusp/cleft auroral transients: EISCAT Svalbard radar observations and an explanation in terms of large local time extent of events

We report high-resolution observations of the southward-IMF cusp/cleft ionosphere made on December 16th 1998 by the EISCAT (European incoherent scatter) Svalbard radar (ESR), and compare them with observations of dayside auroral luminosity, as seen at a wavelength of 630 nm by a meridian scanning photometer at Ny Ålesund, and of plasma flows, as seen by the CUTLASS (co-operative UK twin location auroral sounding system) Finland HF radar. The optical data reveal a series of poleward-moving transient red-line (630 nm) enhancements, events that have been associated with bursts in the rate of magnetopause reconnection generating new open flux. The combined observations at this time have strong similarities to predictions of the effects of soft electron precipitation modulated by pulsed reconnection, as made by Davis and Lockwood (1996); however, the effects of rapid zonal flow in the ionosphere, caused by the magnetic curvature force on the newly opened field lines, are found to be a significant additional factor. In particular, it is shown how enhanced plasma loss rates induced by the rapid convection can explain two outstanding anomalies of the 630 nm transients, namely how minima in luminosity form between the poleward-moving events and how events can re-brighten as they move poleward. The observations show how cusp/cleft aurora and transient poleward-moving auroral forms appear in the ESR data and the conditions which cause enhanced 630 nm emission in the transients: they are an important first step in enabling the ESR to identify these features away from the winter solstice when supporting auroral observations are not available.