Peat layer accumulation and post‐burial deformation during the mid‐late Holocene in the Po coastal plain (Northern Italy)

Peat horizons are characteristic features of delta plains worldwide. In this study, we tested the use of peat‐based correlations to assess the deformation of Holocene strata in the Po coastal plain (Northern Italy). The Holocene stratigraphy, about 30 km inland from the modern coastline consists of a peat‐bearing, estuarine and deltaic succession, up to 23 m thick. Through the analysis of 31 core data and 100 piezocone penetration tests, we identified and mapped three 10–40 cm‐thick peat layers (T1–T3) dated to 6.6–5.8, 5.5–5.0 and 3.3–2.7 cal kyr BP respectively. These peat horizons were found to be suitable stratigraphic markers within the Holocene succession over an area of about 200 km². The mid‐late Holocene palaeogeography, reconstructed through high‐resolution peat correlation, supported by 72 radiocarbon dates, highlights a typical upper delta plain environment, with ribbon‐shaped distributary channels and swamp interdistributary areas. Peat layers are inclined towards E‐NE with gradients that increase downsection from ~0.016% (T3) to 0.021% (T1). The gradient of the oldest peat horizon is one order of magnitude larger than the slope of the modern delta plain (~0.0025%). We infer that peat horizons accumulated during periods of low sediment supply mainly controlled by autogenic processes and were deformed after deposition. Differential compaction of underlying sedimentary strata and recent tectonic activity of the buried Apenninic thrust systems are the most likely drivers of strata deformation. Based on isochore maps, we document that higher sedimentation rates in topographically depressed areas compensated, in part at least, the ongoing deformation, keeping unaltered the topographic gradient and the depositional environment. This study demonstrates that peat‐based correlation and mapping can shed lights on the mechanisms of strata accumulation and deformation in deltaic settings, constituting a robust basis for reconstructing delta evolution.     

A comparison between manganese nodules and cobalt crust economics in a scenario of mutual exclusivity

The past 20 years have been characterised by limited interest in the economic viability of deep seabed mining with the exception of those mineral ores rich in precious metals such as polymetallic sulphides. This paper goes against the tide. After reviewing the most significant literature, it compares the economic feasibility of mining polymetallic manganese nodules and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts in a scenario of mutual exclusivity. It uses a new indicator, the cobalt-nickel price ratio, whose aim is to verify at what metal prices the net present value of the two mining projects equalises. Previous research has shown that the turning margin between manganese nodules and cobalt crusts is a cobalt price of $50/kg. The present paper revises this by showing that the choice between mining crust and nodules depends on fluctuations in the price of nickel. A Monte Carlo simulation proves that cobalt crust mining could be reasonably preferred to manganese nodules at cobalt prices of $40-60/kg if the price of nickel fell below $11/kg. Within this condition, investors would receive the minimum acceptable internal rate of return of 15%, which is at a level of risk closer to the land-based mining. However, when the price of nickel passes the $11/kg threshold, the equilibrium between the two ventures can be reached only at a cobalt price greater than $100/kg, causing cobalt crust to become uncompetitive. Finally, the paper, recognising that prices are not unique drivers, introduces legal, political, technological and environmental concerns to show that the final choice between the two mining ventures cannot be merely driven by economic issues.     

Evidence of Amplification Effects in Fault Zone Related to Rock Mass Jointing

Results of geological, geomechanical and seismometric investigations aiming at the analysis of the seismic response in a carbonate ridge of the Nera River valley (Central Apennines – Italy) are discussed. Geological and geomechanical surveys were aimed at defining the stratigraphic and structural setting of the outcropping formations and the jointing conditions of the rock mass. Velocimetric records of both ambient noise and small-magnitude earthquakes were analysed in order to identify amplification conditions. The analysis was carried out in the time domain, through directional energy evaluation, and in the frequency domain, through H/V spectral ratios and spectral ratios with respect to a reference station. A local amplification factor was estimated from Housner intensity. The study revealed a significant seismic amplification in a fault zone. This effect was observed in intensely jointed and mylonitic rock masses, located inside moderately jointed rock masses, and is the result of specific geometries and significant impedance contrasts. A map of fault zones prone to amplification of ground motion was constructed, taking into account the jointing conditions of the rock masses and the structural setting of the investigated ridge. The study relied on an integrated methodological approach, which combined the available data under union and intersection criteria.     

Photoelectric analysis of asteroid 216 Kleopatra: Implications for its shape

In some recent theoretical papers it has been suggested that gravitationally bound “rubble piles” in hydrostatic equilibrium possibly exist among the asteroids. For a higher-than-critical value of the angular momentum acquired by such a body, the instability phenomena can produce fission into a binary system. S. J. Weidenschilling [Icarus44, 807–809 (1980)] suggested that 216 Kleopatra may represent a binary asteroid, since it has a large light curve amplitude (1.3–1.4 mag). In this paper new observations of Kleopatra are presented, suggesting the equal plausibility of the single triaxial ellipsoid model. Namely, when phase and aspect effects are taken into account, the actual maximum amplitude is reduced to about 0.9 mag at 90° of aspect which is close to the value predicted by theory for the instability limit. Moreover, multiple-scattering effects [M. Poutanen, E. Bowell, and K. Lumme, Bull. Amer. Astron. Soc.13, 725 (1981)] can reduce the axial ratio a/b even more. If the single-body model is adopted, the density of Kleopatra should be on the order of 1.7 g/cm³. This low value seems reasonable for “rubble pile” models.     

Environmental forcings and micro-seismic monitoring in a rock wall prone to fall during the 2018 Buran winter storm

Natural Hazards - This study reports a comparative analysis of the environmental conditions and micro-seismicity recorded on a rock wall resulting from an intense meteorological event. The...     

Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management

This paper describes a model package that simulates coastal flooding resulting from storm surge and waves generated by tropical cyclones. The package consists of four component models implemented at three levels of nested geographic regions, namely, ocean, coastal, and nearshore. The operation is automated through a preprocessor that prepares the computational grids and input atmospheric conditions and manages the data transfer between components. The third generation spectral wave model WAM and a nonlinear long-wave model calculate respectively the wave conditions and storm surge over the ocean region. The simulation results define the water levels and boundary conditions for the model SWAN to transform the storm waves in coastal regions. The storm surge and local tides define the water level in each nearshore region, where a Boussinesq model uses the wave spectra output from SWAN to simulate the surf-zone processes and runup along the coastline. The package is applied to hindcast the coastal flooding caused by Hurricanes Iwa and Iniki, which hit the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1982 and 1992, respectively. The model results indicate good agreement with the storm-water levels and overwash debris lines recorded during and after the events, demonstrating the capability of the model package as a forecast tool for emergency management.     

Stress–strain history from the geological evolution of the Orvieto and Radicofani cliff slopes (Italy)

The study proposes geological evolution models for the cliff slopes of the two Italian towns of Orvieto (Umbria) and Radicofani (Tuscany). The models were validated by the use of a stress–strain numerical modelling, implemented by the finite-difference code FLAC 5.0. The numerical modelling was approached in a sequential way, by assuming specific stiffness values related to the evolutionary stages. For this purpose, unconventional laboratory tests were performed aiming at reproducing the stress path related to the geological evolution model, using standard equipment for CID triaxial testing. The geological evolution models infer that deformation in both cases is driven by stress reduction. At the Orvieto plateau, stress reduction is induced by stress relief involving a tuff plate; in the case of Radicofani, stress reduction is due to stress release in consequence of lateral erosion of clay. Numerical simulations refine the lithotechnical zoning of the two investigated slopes, introducing a stress–strain criterion in addition to the conventional geological and geomechanical ones.     

PRESTo,the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts,capabilities and future perspectives

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for regional earthquake early warning that integrates recently developed algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation in Southern Italy on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), which is deployed in a seismogenic area that is expected to produce a large earthquake within the next 20 years. In this paper we describe the architecture of the system and test its performances using both small earthquakes (M<3.5) recorded at the ISNet and a large event recorded in Japan, through a simulation mode. The results show that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo can produce reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5–6 s from the event origin. Each estimate is provided as a probability density function, with an uncertainty that typically decreases with time: a stable solution is generally reached within 10 s from the origin.