Quantifying the building stock from optical high-resolution satellite imagery for assessing disaster risk

This study uses high-resolution (HR) satellite imagery to quantify the stock of buildings, referred herein as building stock. The risk assessment requires information on the natural hazards and on the element at risk, that is the building stock in this article. This study combines (1) texture-based image processing to map built-up areas, (2) statistical sampling that allows locating the building samples and (3) photo-interpretation to encoding building footprints. Statistical inference is then used to quantify the building stock per class of building size. Legaspi in the Philippines is used as a case study. The results show that texture-based computer algorithms provide accurate area estimations of the built-up, that the detail of HR imagery allows the mapping of single buildings using photo-interpretation, and that a systematic sampling approach that uses building encoding and built-up maps can be used to quantify the building stock.     

Microseismicity within a karstified rock mass due to cracks and collapses as a tool for risk management

Seismometer arrays have been widely applied to record collapse by controlled explosion in mines and caves. However, most underground failures are natural events, and because they can occur abruptly, underground failures represent a serious geological hazard. An accelerometric array installed on 4 September 2008 has been used to manage the geological risk of the Peschiera Springs drainage plant of Rome??s aqueduct, which is located in the Central Apennines approximately 80?km from Rome, Italy. The plant occupies a karstified carbonatic slope that is extensively involved in gravitational deformations, which are responsible for underground failures such as cracks and collapses. To distinguish among different types of recorded events, an automated procedure was implemented based on the duration, peak of ground acceleration (PGA) and PGA variation in the recordings of the plant??s accelerometric stations. The frequencies of earthquakes and micro-earthquakes due to underground failures are, in general, well correlated. Nevertheless, many underground failure sequences can be directly associated with the continuous deformations that affect the slope. The cumulative Arias intensity trend derived for the underground failures combined with the failure and earthquake frequencies enabled the definition of a control index (CI) that identifies alarming or emergency conditions. The CI can be used as a tool for managing the geological risk associated with the deformational processes that affect the drainage plant.     

Potentially modified hydropower production under climate change in the Italian Alps

We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.     

Physical study of asteroids: Ligthcurves and rotational periods of six asteroids

V band photoelectric lightcurves and rotational periods are presented for six asteroids: 150 Nuwa, 203 Pompeja, 336 Lacaderia, 545 Messalina, 984 Gretia, and 1240 Fantasia. Except for 984 Gretia, none of these asteroids has been previously observed. The observations were obtained during September 1983 at the Astrophysical Observatory of Catania and are part of a program devoted to increase the present data set of asteroids' rotational properties. For 336 Lacaderia and 984 Gretia the magnitude-phase relations, in terms ofQ_v and β_v, were also obtained.     

Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers.     

A systematic analysis of the XMM-Newton background: I. Dataset and extraction procedures

XMM-Newton is the direct precursor of the future ESA ATHENA mission. A study of its particle-induced background provides therefore significant insight for the ATHENA mission design. We make use of ～12 years of data, products from the third XMM-Newton catalog as well as FP7 EXTraS project to avoid celestial sources contamination and to disentangle the different components of the XMM-Newton particle-induced background. Within the ESA R&D AREMBES collaboration, we built new analysis pipelines to study the different components of this background: this covers time behavior as well as spectral and spatial characteristics.     

A systematic analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">XMM-Newton</Emphasis> background: II. Properties of the in-Field-Of-View excess component

We present an accurate characterization of the particle background behaviour on XMM-Newton based on the entire EPIC archive. This corresponds to the largest EPIC data set ever examined. Our results have been obtained thanks to the collaboration between the FP7 European program EXTraS and the ESA R&D ATHENA activity AREMBES. We used as a diagnostic an improved version of the diagnostic which compares the data collected in unexposed region of the detector with the region of the field of view in the EPIC-MOS. We will show that the in Field-of-View excess background is made up of two different components, one associated to flares produced by soft protons and the other one to a low-intensity background. Its origin needs to be further investigated.     

Self-sustained oscillations at Volcán de Colima (México) inferred by Independent Component Analysis

We have analyzed Long-Period (LP) seismic events of Volcán de Colima (Mexico) recorded by four three-component broad-band seismometers during January 2006. Frequency-domain analysis shows spectra mainly peaked in the range 0.3–2 Hz and characterized by a monotonic decreasing envelope, as those produced in a cylindrically-symmetric self-oscillating cavity interacting with a confined jet. Independent Component Analysis, a time-series decomposition method, extracts two or three nonlinear oscillation modes depending on the station, with the fundamental one peaked at 0.4–0.5 Hz. These decomposed waves have a well defined spectral content and are self-sustained oscillations with low dimensionality, as shown by dynamic system reconstruction methods. Moreover, they show radial polarization in near field and transverse polarization in far field in North-West South-East direction. Finally, we hypothesize a branched plumbing system with two principal conduits having alignments orthogonal to one another.