Monitoring of heat transmission from buildings into geological environment and evaluation of soil deformation consequences in foundation engineering

In engineering geology a number of factors affecting foundation conditions are taken into consideration during engineering-geological investigations. This article deals with the factor of heat sourced from a structure (brick kiln) as a restrictive factor in foundation engineering in clay soils and introduces a documentation of soil deformation observations as an impact of the heat transmission into the geological environment. It was carried out in Southern Moravia in the Czech Republic, where the dominant foundation soils are Neogeneous clays where differential settlements of a tunnel kiln structure occurred as a result of ignoring the boundary conditions of temperature changes in the soil environment. The brick kilns caused heterogeneous spatial changes in the subsoil temperatures. This consequently resulted in differential settlements due to temperature changes originating from the kilns. The differential settlements reached as much as 150 mm. The major objective of the article is to highlight the importance of the heat transmission from buildings into the geological environment as a factor which should be considered in engineering geology and its application in planning. A new procedure for reducing or elimination of ground movements sourced from underlying clayey soils depending on the heat changes was also suggested in this context.     

Georeferencing Animal Specimen Datasets

For biodiversity research, the field of study that is concerned with the richness of species of our planet, it is of the utmost importance that the location of an animal specimen find is known with high precision. Due to specimens often having been collected over the course of many years, their accompanying geographical data is often ambiguous or may be very imprecise. In this article, we detail an approach that utilizes reasoning and external sources to improve the geographical information of animal finds. Our main contribution is to show that adding external domain knowledge improves the ability to georeference locations over traditional methods that focus solely on analyzing geographical information. Additionally, our system is able to output the confidence it has in its decisions through a confidence measure based on the difficulty of the instance and the steps undertaken to disambiguate it. Our results show that adding domain knowledge to the georeferencing process increases the accuracy @5km from 38.9% to 61.7% and from 47.0% to 74.5% @25km. Furthermore, we reduce the mean distance by more than half, from 251.1km to 114.5km, and decrease the number of records for which no reference can be found from 26.2% to 7.4%.     

The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

The REMIND-R model: the role of renewables in the low-carbon transformation—first-best vs. second-best worlds

Can near-term public support of renewable energy technologies contain the increase of mitigation costs due to delays of implementing emission caps at the global level? To answer this question we design a set of first and second best scenarios to analyze the impact of early deployment of renewable energy technologies on welfare and emission timing to achieve atmospheric carbon stabilization by 2100. We use the global multiregional energy?Ceconomy?Cclimate hybrid model REMIND-R as a tool for this analysis. An important design feature of the policy scenarios is the timing of climate policy. Immediate climate policy contains the mitigation costs at less than 1% even if the CO₂ concentration target is 410?ppm by 2100. Delayed climate policy increases the costs significantly because the absence of a strong carbon price signal continues the carbon intensive growth path. The additional costs can be decreased by early technology policies supporting renewable energy technologies because emissions grow less, alternative energy technologies are increased in capacity and their costs are reduced through learning by doing. The effects of early technology policy are different in scenarios with immediate carbon pricing. In the case of delayed climate policy, the emission path can be brought closer to the first-best solution, whereas in the case of immediate climate policy additional technology policy would lead to deviations from the optimal emission path. Hence, technology policy in the delayed climate policy case reduces costs, but in the case of immediate climate policy they increase. However, the near-term emission reductions are smaller in the case of delayed climate policies. At the regional level the effects on mitigation costs are heterogeneously distributed. For the USA and Europe early technology policy has a positive welfare effect for immediate and delayed climate policies. In contrast, India looses in both cases. China loses in the case of immediate climate policy, but profits in the delayed case. Early support of renewable energy technologies devalues the stock of emission allowances, and this effect is considerable for delayed climate policies. In combination with the initial allocation rule of contraction and convergence a relatively well-endowed country like India loses and potential importers like the EU gain from early renewable deployment.     

The cross-correlation of the CMB polarization and the 21-cm line fluctuations from cosmic reionization

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization and the 21-cm line fluctuations are powerful probes of cosmological reionization. We study how the cross-correlation between the CMB polarization ( E modes) and the 21-cm line fluctuations can be used to gain further understanding of the reionization history, within the framework of inhomogeneous reionization. Since the E -mode polarization reflects the amplitude of the quadrupole component of the CMB temperature fluctuations, the angular power spectrum of the cross-correlation exhibits oscillations at all multipoles. The first peak of the power spectrum appears at the scale corresponding to the quadrupole at the redshift, which is probed by the 21-cm line fluctuations. The peak reaches its maximum value in redshift when the average ionization fraction of the universe is about half. On the other hand, on small scales, there is a damping that depends on the duration of reionization. Thus, the cross-correlation between the CMB polarization and the 21-cm line fluctuations has the potential to accurately constrain the epoch and the duration of reionization.     

Crossing Boundaries in a Collaborative Modeling Workspace

There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we present a case study documenting the mechanisms by which managers and scientists collaborated to incorporate climate change projections into Colorado’s State Wildlife Action Plan. A critical component of the project was the use of a collaborative modeling and visualization workspace: the U.S. Geological Survey’s Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM). Using video analysis and pre/post surveys from this case study, we examine how the RAM facilitated cognitive and social processes that co-produced a more salient and credible end product. This case provides practical suggestions to scientists and practitioners who want to implement actionable science.     

Appropriate teaching materials for Africa: local is ‘lekker’!

Most of the statistics given in this overview of the history and current status of Geoscience Education in South Africa pertain to the more geologically inclined disciplines; while the report does mention the extent to which earth sciences are taught in mining and geography departments, no detailed information about these activities are given. There are 13 active geoscience departments countrywide (eleven at universities and two at technical institutions) teaching a wide range of geological topics, some at a highly specialised level. There are just over 100 academic staff members engaged in teaching, supported by 65 technical and administrative staff. Of the teaching staff, 89% have Ph.D. degrees, and most are engaged in active research. About 150 three-year B.Sc., slightly fewer B.Sc. (Hons.), graduates, plus 10 geological technicians pass through the system every year, with most finding employment in the mining industry. Approximately 120 M.Sc. and 60 Ph.D. candidates are currently registered at the universities, about 40% of whom graduate in any particular year.     

Economic Development and Emission Control over the Long Term: The ICLIPS Aggregated Economic Model

In integrated assessments of climate change, greenhouse-gasemissions and climate change impacts provide the linkages betweenthe world economy and the climate system. Key climatic processesoperate at the scales of centuries. This requires highlyaggregated models for portraying the dynamics of the economicsystem. An extended Ramsey-type optimal growth model is presentedas the appropriate tool to be integrated with a reduced-formclimate model in the ICLIPS integrated assessment. Theeleven-region model of the world economy involves exogenouspopulation and endogenous investment dynamics with productivityprogress based on a technological diffusion model. World regionsare linked via intertemporal trade flows of the compositeconsumption/investment good, capital mobility, and emission permittrading. Coupled with the ICLIPS Climate Model, the AggregatedEconomic Model can determine corridors of permitted long-termcarbon emission paths or, as primarily discussed in this paper,specific cost-effective emission trajectories. The sensitivity ofmitigation costs to externally specified climate change/impactconstraints and to assumptions about non-CO₂ greenhouse-gasemissions is also discussed.     

Stable carbon isotope variations in northwest Europe during the last glacial–interglacial transition

Stable carbon isotope data that span part of the last glacial–interglacial transition (ca. 14-9 ka ¹⁴C BP; ca. 15–11 ka cal. BP), and which derive from organ-specific plant macrofossils recovered from two lake sediment profiles in the UK and one in Norway, are compared. The recorded temporal variations show similar trends, which, over a millennial time-scale appear to parallel the main drift in δ¹⁸O as determined for the GRIP ice-core. It is postulated that some smaller scale variations in the δ¹³C profiles may reflect the shorter term oscillations in δ¹⁸O values evident in the GRIP record, although this is less certain. Overall, however, the results suggest that stable carbon isotope measurements based on organ-specific terrestrial plant macrofossils may provide (i) a means for establishing correlations between terrestrial successions and (ii) additional paleoenvironmental information, as the apparent ‘shadowing’ of the GRIP record indicates a common forcing mechanism for both Greenland δ¹⁸O and northwest European δ¹³C variations. From the evidence available we suggest that the recorded δ¹³C variations reflect fluctuations in air temperature and/or changes in water vapour pressure in the atmosphere. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.