一种利用浮标站资料改进海浪模式有效波高预报的方法

基于浮标站海浪历史数据,利用回归分析方法建立了海浪数值模式有效波高预报产品的一元二次回归方程订正统计模型。通过2017年7月1日-2018年10月10日期间业务试运行结果发现:订正方程能有效改善有效波高数值预报产品的预报精度,且预报时效越短订正效果越显著。其中,第6~11 h预报时效内的订正前后平均绝对误差值减小0.17~0. 241 m,第6~18 h预报时效内订正前后均方根误差减小幅度为0.103~0. 28 m。这说明应用订正统计模型对海浪模式输出产品进行订正,也是改进海浪模式预报准确率的一种有效途径。     

HHT-EEMD用于IGS站高程时间序列分析

利用经验模态分解（EMD）和整体经验模态分解（EEMD）方法，将BJFS站2000~2015年高程时间序列进行分解，发现其不仅存在1 a、0.5 a、0.25 a、2个月、1个月以及长周期等周期项，还存在以往方法很难探测出来的近似2 a周期信号。与EMD分解结果对比，整体经验模态分解可以明显减弱模式混叠现象。对各分量进行Hilbert 变换（HHT），得到时间-频率-能量的Hilbert 频谱图。结果表明，年周期和2 a周期变化是高程运动的主要贡献项。利用小波变换方法对比验证EEMD的分解结果表明，与小波分析相比，EEMD重构信号与高程序列差异的RMS更小，证明了HHT-EEMD方法在数据资料分析过程中的有效性。对环境负载及GRACE负载造成的测站位移进行功率谱分析得出，环境负载确实会造成IGS站高程时间序列的1 a、0.5 a以及季节性运动，GRACE负载还验证了2 a信号的存在。     

中国-丝路国家基础设施连通性评估方法与格局

基础设施互联互通是不同区域之间空间网络形成的支撑,对区际生产要素流动、市场融合和资源配置具有重要作用,也是“一带一路”建设的重点内容和前提条件。立足于综合基础设施网络,以“一带一路”沿线国家/地区为分析地域,设计数理模型,评价了中国与沿线国家的基础设施网络连通性,考察其基本特征与空间格局,然后分别从铁路、公路、航运、通讯、能源等各种基础设施方式的视角,分析了不同基础设施网络的互联互通水平,探讨了基础设施连通的类型分异及其主导因素,凝练基础设施连通的空间模式。主要结论如下：① 从海陆属性来看,岛屿型国家与中国设施连通性最高,其次为综合型国家,内陆型国家最低。对国际区域而言,俄蒙和东南亚地区与中国的设施连通性最高,中东欧地区连通性最低。从国家尺度来看,俄罗斯和越南是与中国设施连通水平最高的国家,巴勒斯坦、东帝汶等5个国家与中国尚未形成设施连通性。从连通方式的构成来看,航运网络的连通性最高,其次为航空和光缆。② 空间距离、连通方式和重大交通走廊共同主导了设施连通性的类型分异。③ “一带一路”沿线国家/地区与中国的设施连通形成了四种典型模式,包括海陆融合型外缘连通模式、陆路通道直接连通模式、陆心内生性低水平连通模式、远距离不均衡连通模式。     

淡化浓海水日晒盐田原核微生物多样性分析

海滨日晒盐田具有稳定且独特的生态系统。淡化浓海水排入盐田制盐,对盐田生态系统的稳定及盐田的可持续发展具有一定的影响。本研究分析天津汉沽淡化浓海水日晒盐田不同季节不同盐度盐池原核微生物多样性现状及群落结构变化,以期为评估淡化浓海水对盐田原核微生物群落影响提供理论依据。采用温度梯度凝胶电泳和序列测定等方法,分析不同月份不同盐度盐池中细菌和古菌的多样性与群落结构变化。分别采用香农-威纳指数、加权丰富度指数和均匀度指数分析盐田微生物群落多样性、丰富度和均匀度。结果表明,淡化浓海水和溴后水中均未检测出细菌和古菌。不同月份不同盐度盐池样本中细菌多样性变化不大,优势菌主要为γ-变形菌门(γ-Proteobacteria)中的Spiribacter salinus和Pseudoalteromonassp.;古菌仅出现在盐度最高的Ⅶ号盐池中,优势古菌为广古菌门(Euryarchaeota)的Halogeometricum sp.。天津汉沽淡化浓海水日晒盐田中细菌的多样性和丰富度较低,春夏两季细菌群落结构较为稳定,秋冬季节细菌群落结构变化明显。盐度不同的盐池中细菌群落结构变化较大,随着盐度逐渐升高, Spiribacter salinus逐渐取代Pseudoalteromonas sp.成为占主要地位的优势菌种。     

南海盐致环流对台风降水的响应特征分析

本文采用多源卫星遥感数据通过统计分析的方法研究了17年间(2000—2016年)南海夏季(6—9月)台风对该海域降水、淡水通量的贡献及其可能导致的环流异常。主要结论如下: 1) 台风是南海中北部降水的重要影响因子, 可导致日平均降水量增加12mm, 约占南海夏季日平均降水(25mm·d ^-1)的一半, 且西北太平洋台风和南海“土台风”产生的降水分布存在显著的区域和强度差异; 2) 夏季, 南海由淡水通量引起的盐致环流表现为以海南岛东南部海域为中心的弱气旋式, 其流量量级约为-0.15Sv, 约占同期风生环流流量(约为-1.5Sv)的10%; 3) 夏季, 台风带来的降水使得南海中北部的气旋式盐致环流增强, 且西北太平洋台风降水导致的淡水通量变化引起的盐致环流强度要强于南海“土台风”。     

The impact of deformation on vortex development in a baroclinic moist atmosphere

A mathematical relation between deformation and vertical vorticity tendency is built by introducing the frontogenesis function and the complete vertical vorticity equation, which is derived by virtue of moist potential vorticity. From the mathematical relation, it is shown that properly configured atmospheric conditions can make deformation exert a positive contribution to vortex development at rates comparable to other favorable factors. The effect of deformation on vortex development is not only related to the deformation itself, but also depends on the current thermodynamic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, such as the convective stability, moist baroclinicity and vertical wind shear(or horizontal vorticity). A diagnostic study of a heavy-rainfall case that occurred during 20–22 July 2012 shows that deformation has the most remarkable effect on the increase in vertical vorticity during the rapid development stage of the low vortex during its whole life cycle. This feature is mainly due to the existence of an approximate neutral layer(about 700 h Pa) in the atmosphere where the convective stability tends to be zero. The neutral layer makes the effect of deformation on the vertical vorticity increase significantly during the vortex development stage, and thus drives the vertical vorticity to increase.     

莱州湾沿岸寿光、莱州和龙口地下水的稳定同位素与地球化学

依据地下水咸化机理:蒸发、溶解和混合,海水入侵是地下淡水与较之更咸的海水的混合,海水和淡水的混合包括水分子的混合和溶解盐分的混合。只有溶剂水分子和溶质溶解盐分都发生了相同比例的混合,才能确定二种水体发生了混合。地下淡水变咸并不能都归因于海水入侵,也有可能源于蒸发或溶解。鉴定是否存在海水入侵可运用惰性示踪剂和反应示踪剂来共同识别。惰性示踪剂包括δD、δ~(18)O、Cl~-和Br~-,反应示踪剂包括主要化学成分和微量元素。本研究对莱州湾沿岸寿光、莱州和龙口的地下水进行了化学成分形成过程的对比研究。莱州采集样品6件,龙口10件,寿光9件。莱州和龙口的碎屑沉积物以硅酸盐矿物为主,而寿光的沉积物来源于南部鲁中南山地的碳酸盐岩。根据莱州采样点地理条件和样品的稳定同位素δD-δ~(18)O分布域确定了当地降雨入渗的多年平均值,进而明确龙口样品也源于就地降雨入渗补给,根据高程效应和当地水文情况确定寿光样品补给来自南部山区的降水,经河道排入洼地后入渗地下。Cl~--δ~(18)O关系表明盐分都来源于淡水溶解的蒸发盐,而非与海水混合。Br~-/Cl~-比值证实了蒸发盐溶解,还存在人为污染物和海侵沉积物中有机质分解的影响。从三线图可看出龙口样品经历了离子交换反应。主要成分和微量元素(HCO_3~-,H_2SiO_3,F~-,Li~+,Sr~(2+)和Ba~(2+))的含量与样品所处含水层的矿物组成有关,反映出水岩作用。所有样品都没有淡水和海水混合的现象。惰性示踪剂分析提供了区域地下水补给的框架,明确了大气水源因溶解蒸发盐而咸化,排除了淡水和海水混合的可能性。用反应示踪剂中主要化学成分和微量元素来分析水中化学成分的形成过程,在和海洋盐分输入对比基础上,二者偏差值主要源自水-岩相互作用结果,包括溶解、沉淀、离子交换等,以及局部样品的污染物输入。所以沿海地带研究地下水咸化,先要解决溶剂的混合问题,在此基础上辅以水文地球化学分析,利用水化学的多种示踪剂,主要解决溶质混合以及盐分来源问题。     

Two Methods for Predicting Reliability Index and Critical Probabilistic Slip Surface of Soil Slopes

Two methods of reliability analysis of soil slopes are studied, and the representative flow charts of both methods are illustrated. Method 1 can predict the reliability index and the critical probabilistic slip surface directly and it is computational efficient, but it needs the development of new codes for integrating the reliability analysis code and the slope stability code. Method 2 makes the reliability analysis code call the slope stability analysis code directly, and each code can be considered as an intact part. The main result of Method 2 is the reliability index of soil slope. Combined with the proposed method for locating the critical slip surface, Method 2 can also predict the probabilistic slip surface. Although Method 2 needs much more callings of the subprogram of slope stability analysis code, it needs not the developing of new computer program. Thus, Method 2 is easy to use and can be applied to different reliability analysis methods and slope stability analysis methods.     

A New Progress of the Proterozoic Chronostratigraphical Division

The Precambrian, an informal chronostratigraphical unit, represents the period of Earth history from the start of the Cambrian at ca. 541 Ma back to the formation of the planet at 4567 Ma. It was originally conceptualized as a "Cryptozoic Eon" that was contrasted with the Phanerozoic Eon from the Cambrian to the Quaternary, which is now known as the Precambrian and can be subdivided into three eons, i.e., the Hadean, the Archean and the Proterozoic. The Precambrian is currently divided chronometrically into convenient boundaries, including for the establishment of the Proterozoic periods that were chosen to reflect large-scale tectonic or sedimentary features(except for the Ediacaran Period). This chronometric arrangement might represent the second progress on the study of chronostratigraphy of the Precambrian after its separation from the Phanerozoic. Upon further study of the evolutionary history of the Precambrian Earth, applying new geodynamic and geobiological knowledge and information, a revised division of Precambrian time has led to the third conceptual progress on the study of Precambrian chronostratigraphy. In the current scheme, the Proterozoic Eon began at 2500 Ma, which is the approximate time by which most granite-greenstone crust had formed, and can be subdivided into ten periods of typically 200 Ma duration grouped into three eras(except for the Ediacaran Period). Within this current scheme, the Ediacaran Period was ratified in 2004, the first period-level addition to the geologic time scale in more than a century, an important advancement in stratigraphy. There are two main problems in the current scheme of Proterozoic chronostratigraphical division:(1) the definition of the Archean–Proterozoic boundary at 2500 Ma, which does not reflect a unique time of synchronous global change in tectonic style and does not correspond with a major change in lithology;(2) the round number subdivision of the Proterozoic into several periods based on broad orogenic characteristics, which has not met with requests on the concept of modern stratigraphy, except for the Ediacaran Period. In the revised chronostratigraphic scheme for the Proterozoic, the Archean–Proterozoic boundary is placed at the major change from a reducing early Earth to a cooler, more modern Earth characterized by the supercontinent cycle, a major change that occurred at ca. 2420 Ma. Thus, a revised Proterozoic Eon(2420–542 Ma) is envisaged to extend from the Archean–Proterozoic boundary at ca. 2420 Ma to the end of the Ediacaran Period, i.e., a period marked by the progressive rise in atmospheric oxygen, supercontinent cyclicity, and the evolution of more complex(eukaryotic) life. As with the current Proterozoic Eon, a revised Proterozoic Eon based on chronostratigraphy is envisaged to consist of three eras(Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic), but the boundary ages for these divisions differ from their current ages and their subdivisions into periods would also differ from current practice. A scheme is proposed for the chronostratigraphic division of the Proterozoic, based principally on geodynamic and geobiological events and their expressions in the stratigraphic record. Importantly, this revision of the Proterozoic time scale will be of significant benefit to the community as a whole and will help to drive new research that will unveil new information about the history of our planet, since the Proterozoic is a significant connecting link between the preceding Precambrian and the following Phanerozoic.