2008年冰灾期间GFS对长沙预报能力检验

应用相关分析、绝对误差统计、定性分析等方法,选取天气在线网上的GFS预报产品在冰灾期间内长沙站附近格点的部分气象要素预报值进行检验,发现GFS预报最高最低气温、降水类型、晴雨、风等方面有较好的指导意义.     

综合气象因素对广西电力负荷的影响

针对电网负荷易受多种气象因素影响的特点,为综合衡量气象因素对广西电力负荷的影响,引入了气象学指数--有效温度,分析了4-10月气温、相对湿度、风及有效气温对电力负荷的影响.结果表明:气温与电力负荷呈显著的正相关关系,气温是影响电力负荷的主要因子;夏季以气温和风速、气温和相对湿度组合的变化对负荷的影响较大,风速从静风到有风时,负荷明显地减少,但当超过一定的温度时,风速越大负荷反而增加;6-9月,负荷随着气温和有效温度的升高呈线性增加;在春夏、夏秋季过渡季节,负荷并不完全随着气温的升高而增加,在气温不是太高的阶段,相对湿度增大时,负荷有下降的趋势,当超过一定的温度时,负荷随气温和有效温度的升高而增加.     

南城自动站土壤水分资料的统计学订正分析

对2006—2009年南城站5—10cm、10—20cm、20—30cm、30—40cm和40—50cm等5个土层各90组样本的HYA-SF型土壤水分自动观测数据与同期人工观测数据进行了偏差与相关性分析,采用线性方程建立拟合模式,对自动土壤水分观测数据进行订正,并以相对误差±5%、±10%为指标对订正前后的数据合格情况进行了统计。结果表明,各土层自动土壤水分观测数据与人工观测数据虽然存在较大偏差,但二者具有一致的变化趋势,相关性好;分别利用5个土层同期对比观测数据建立的一元线性回归模型;拟合订正后的自动站各层数据偏差不同程度减小,数据合格率明显上升。     

一次持续空气污染过程的气象条件分析

2004年12月24-30日,淄博地区出现一次持续一周的强空气污染过程.本文分析了这次过程的主要污染物浓度变化特征和造成强污染的天气形势特点以及主要的气象变量分布特征.结果表明:高空维持稳定纬向环流、逆温层结持续存在、混合层厚度增加、低空风速小,导致污染物不能及时随大气扩散,污染物浓度增大.     

A comparison of the effectiveness of the roots of two grass species in reducing soil erosion on alluvial fans in south-east China

The effects of root systems on soil detachment by overland flow are closely related to vegetation types. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of two gramineous roots (Paspalum mandiocanum with shallow roots and Pennisetum giganteum with deep roots) on soil detachment capacity, rill erodibility, and critical shear stress on alluvial fans of benggang in south-east China. A 4-m-long and 0.12-m-wide flume was used. Slope steepness ranged from 9% to 27%, and unit flow discharge ranged from 1.39 × 10⁻³ to 4.19 × 10⁻³ m² s⁻¹. The mean detachment capacities of P. mandiocanum and P. giganteum lands were 18% and 38% lower than that of bare land, respectively, and the effects of root on reducing soil detachment were mainly reflected in the 0- to 5-cm soil layer. The most important factors in characterizing soil detachment capacity were root length density and soil cohesion, and soil detachment capacity of the two grass lands could be estimated using flow shear stress, soil cohesion, and root length density (NSE = 0.90). With the increase in soil depth, rill erodibility increased, whereas shear stress decreased. The mean rill erodibilities of P. mandiocanum and P. giganteum lands were 81% and 61% as much as that of bare land, respectively. Additionally, rill erodibilities of the two grass lands could be estimated as an exponential function by root length density and soil cohesion (NSE = 0.88). The mean critical shear stress of P. mandiocanum and P. giganteum lands was 1.29 and 1.39 times that of bare land, respectively, and it could be estimated with a linear function by root length density (NSE = 0.76). This study demonstrated that planting of the two grasses P. mandiocanum and P. giganteum could effectively reduce soil detachment and enhance soil resistance to erosion on alluvial fans, with the deep roots of P. giganteum being more effective than the shallow roots of P. mandiocanum. The results are helpful for understanding the influencing mechanism of root systems on soil detachment process.     

Influence of Headland Breakwaters on Morphological Processes at Longfengtou Beach in Haitan Bay,Facing the Taiwan Strait

Breakwaters can be used as artificial headlands in beach nourishment to mitigate coastal erosion. Longfengtou Beach, located on the southwest coast of Haitan Bay facing the Taiwan Strait on the northeast, suffers severe erosion, where the monsoon causes significant season hydrodynamic variations. Headland breakwaters are intended to be employed to mitigate coastal erosion. A 2D sediment transport model is established using MIKE21 based on current-wave coupling and calibrated by measured data. Summer and winter wave conditions are chosen as characteristic weak and strong waves respectively. The numerical results of suspended sediment concentration and seasonal morphological evolution are compared under the conditions with and without the headland breakwaters. Sediment transport in summer can be regarded as mainly determined by current field, while in winter wave effect is strong enough to change current field. The northern breakwater, nearly perpendicular to the ebb current direction, obstructs the currents and decreases velocity of the ebb currents, and confines the water carrying sediments within the protection area during the flood period. The southern breakwater also breaks the waves in advance and significantly reduces the hydrodynamic effects during the flood period and maintains high suspended sediment concentration in the protection area. In general, two headland breakwaters decrease the erosion near the beach and enlarge the deposition area, which play a significant role in prevention of sediment loss in nearshore area and mitigate coastal erosion.     

体育场馆产业虚拟集群的构建

基于互联网技术在产业领域全面渗透的发展形势,部分学者提出“网络空间邻近性将取代地理空间邻近性”的论断,而另一部分研究结论坚持认为网络信息技术与平台是线下产业转型升级的“催化剂”,同时提出线下实体产业自身及其关联产业之间的地理要素对线上虚拟平台的构建与发展具有重要意义。据此,文章从地理空间的视角,试图阐释体育场馆虚拟集群构建的地理学研究基础和关注重点,分析体育场馆地理聚集效应无法形成的原因,总结归纳产业虚拟集群具有促进产业聚集形态、提高规模经济效益、建立分工协作关系、带动合作与竞争氛围、形成柔性化创新模式等作用,提出构建虚拟集群是未来体育场馆产业发展的重要形式之一。目前,中国体育场馆产业虚拟集群是横向各成员间合作与竞争的利益价值链,纵向是供需两端线上下产销价值链,共同构成了集群基本的结构体系;根据集群产业的主体规模、地理位置、产权属性和网络化程度等,场馆产业虚拟集群可分为单体型、连锁型、联盟型;而根据场馆产业集群的结构体系和功能特征,其发展过程需历经技术融合、产品改造、结构优化3个升级阶段。最终,建议通过正确认识场馆虚拟集群构建的地理性涵义,持续提升线下场馆服务的核心竞争力,发挥政府的政策支持和牵头结盟作用,建立场馆虚拟集群成员准入监督机制,为虚拟产业集群的创新发展提供理论与实践指导。     

中国地级以上城市土地经济密度差异的时空演化分析

以中国336个地级以上城市为研究对象,利用核密度估计和探索性空间数据分析方法,对2001~2014年中国地级以上城市土地经济密度差异的时空格局演化及影响因素进行分析和探讨。结果表明：① 中国地级以上城市土地经济密度的总体水平不断提高,平均值从2001年的4.769亿元/km²增加至2014年的15.375亿元/km²,但地区差距逐渐扩大;② 中国地级以上城市土地经济密度表现出显著的全局空间正相关性,相邻地市相互影响,呈现出“高–高”或“低–低”的空间集聚态势,且从LISA集聚图来看,城市土地经济密度通过空间聚类可以划分为“高水平均质型地域”、“塌陷型地域”、“极化型地域”和“低水平均质型地域”4种类型,不同地域类型的空间分布范围和稳定性等都存在差异;③ 中国地级以上城市土地经济密度冷、热点区域的空间分布具有相对稳定性,总体上表现出“东热西冷”的分布格局,热点区主要分布在东部的京津冀地区、长江三角洲地区和珠江三角洲地区等,广大中、西部地区则大多处于低值簇,属于城市土地经济密度的冷点区或次冷点区;④ 自然条件状况决定城市土地的供给能力和开发潜力,是导致中国地级以上城市土地经济密度差异的基础性因素,区域经济发展水平、经济发展政策、土地利用管理政策也会对城市土地经济密度差异造成一定程度的影响。     

水资源可持续性的参数敏感性分析

通过界定敏感性参数的含义,认为参数的敏感性是系统对某一指参数的变化的敏感程度,以此为依据建立M-YAS模型分析参数的敏感性。以佛山市为例选取37 项影响水资源可持续的参数,分析水资源可持续性的参数敏感性问题,结果表明：37项反映水资源可持续性的参数中,仅13 项参数（生活用水定额、林牧渔畜用水量、工业用水定额、农田灌溉用水量、工业用水量、耕地灌溉定额、万元工业增加值用水量、火电冷却用水量、城乡生活用水量、工业节水、万元生产总值用水量、生活节水和农业节水）对于水资源可持续性的目标层而言是敏感性参数,且13项参数均来自用水结构与效率的准则层,说明区域水资源可持续性的目标层对用水结构与效率的准则层较为敏感。     

番禺市农业结构的转变及其效果

单一化的经济不利于充分利用资源,而多元化的经济不利于高效利用资源。为了充分而高效利用资源,应该根据区域资源的实际状况确定合理的区域农业结构和专业化程度。１９８０年以来番禺市农业结构调整的效果表明,农业结构专业化程度降低的幅度越大,结构转变的效率越低,专业化程度降低的幅度越小,结构转变的效率就越高。区域农业发展的方向应该是在具有比较优势的行业专业化发展,在专业化基础上逐步实现规模化、基地化和农工贸一体化。