Coupling between landslides and eroding stream channels reconstructed from spruce tree rings (examples from the Carpathians and Sudetes – Central Europe)

The analysis of the positive feedback between landslides and erosion requires determination of the precise temporal and spatial relations between events of colluvium delivery and fluvial erosion. In our study we use decennial datasets on the occurrence of landsliding and erosion achieved through dendrochronological methods. Four sites covering areas of landslide slopes and adjacent valley floors with stream channels were studied. Landsliding on slopes was dated from the tree‐ring eccentricity developed in stems tilted due to bedrock instability. Erosion in channels was dated using the wood anatomy of roots exposed by erosion of the soil cover. Analysis of the temporal relations between dated landsliding, erosion and precipitation record has revealed that two types of repeating sequences can be observed: (1) rainfall → landsliding → erosion; (2) rainfall → erosion → landsliding. These sequences are an indication of the occurrence of slope‐channel positive feedback in the sites studied. In the first type, landsliding triggered by rainfall delivers colluvia into the valley floor and causes its narrowing, which in turn causes increased erosion. In the second type erosion triggered by rainfall disturbs the slope equilibrium and causes landsliding. Landsliding and erosion, once triggered by precipitation, can occur alternately in years with average precipitation and reinforce one another. Bidirectional coupling between landsliding and channel erosion was shown notably through the effects of channel shifting and forced sinuosity and by increased erosion of the slopes opposite the active landslides. Observations also suggest that the repetition of sequences described over longer periods of time can lead to a general widening of the valley floor at the expense of slopes and to a gradual change of the valley cross‐profile from narrow, V‐shaped into a wide flat‐bottomed. Thus landsliding–erosion coupling/positive feedback was recognized as an important factor shaping hillslope–valley topography of the mid‐mountain areas studied. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of the atmospheric refraction on the precise astrometry with adaptive optics in infrared

We study the impact of the atmospheric differential chromatic refraction on the measurements and precision of relative astrometry. Specifically, we address the problem of measuring the separations of close pairs of binary stars with adaptive optics in the J and K bands.We investigate the influence of weather conditions, zenithal distance, star’s spectral type and observing wavelength on the astrometric precision and determine the accuracy of these parameters that is necessary to detect exoplanets with existing and planned large ground based telescopes with adaptive optics facilities. The analytical formulae for simple monochromatic refraction and a full approach, as well as moderately simplified procedure, are used to compute refraction corrections under a variety of observing conditions.It is shown that the atmospheric refraction must be taken into account in astrometric studies but the full procedure is not necessary in many cases. Requirements for achieving a certain astrometric precision are specified.     

Investigation of the 16-year and 18-year ZTD Time Series Derived from GPS Data Processing

The GPS system can play an important role in activities related to the monitoring of climate. Long time series, coherent strategy, and very high quality of tropospheric parameter Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) estimated on the basis of GPS data analysis allows to investigate its usefulness for climate research as a direct GPS product. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year time series derived from EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. For 58 stations Lomb-Scargle periodograms were performed in order to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Seasonal components and linear trend were estimated using Least Square Estimation (LSE) and Mann—Kendall trend test was used to confirm the presence of a linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the impact of the length of time series on trend value, comparison between 16 and 18 years were performed.     

LAGEOS Sensitivity to Ocean Tides

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) to LAGEOS has a remarkable contribution to high-precise geodesy and geodynamics through deriving and validating various global geophysical models. This paper validates ocean tide models based on the analysis of satellite altimetry data, coastal tide gauges, and hydrodynamic data, i.e., CSR3.0, TOPEX4.0, CSR4.0A, FES2004, GOT00.2, and the CSRC Schwiderski model. LAGEOS orbits and SLR observation residuals from solutions based on different ocean tide models are compared and examined. It is found that LAGEOS orbits are sensitive to tidal waves larger than 5 mm. The analysis of the aliasing periods of LAGEOS orbits and tidal waves reveals that, in particular, the tidal constituent S₂ is not well established in the recent ocean tide models. Some of the models introduce spurious peaks to empirical orbit parameters, which can be associated with S₂, S_a, and K₂ tidal constituents, and, as a consequence, can be propagated to fundamental parameters derived from LAGEOS observations.     

Stability of the Triangular Libration Points in the Unrestricted Planar Problem of a Symmetric Rigid Body and a Point Mass

In papers (Godziewski and Maciejewski, 1998a, b, 1999), we investigate unrestricted, planar problem of a dynamically symmetric rigid body and a sphere. Following the original statement of the problem by Kokoriev and Kirpichnikov (1988), we assume that the potential of the rigid body is approximated by the gravitational field of a dumb-bell. The model is described in terms of a 2D Hamiltonian depending on three parameters.In this paper, we investigate the stability of triangular equilibria permissible by the dynamics of the model, under the assumption of low-order resonances. We analyze all resonances of order smaller than four, and we examine the stability with application of theorems by Markeev and Sokolsky. These are the possible following cases: the non-diagonal resonance of the first order with two null characteristic frequencies (unstable); resonances of the first order with one nonzero frequency (diagonal and non-diagonal, stable and unstable); the second-order resonance, which is non-diagonal and stable, and the third-order resonance which is generically unstable, except for three points in the parameters' space, corresponding to stable equilibria.We discuss a perturbed version of Kokoriev and Kirpichnikov model, and we find that if the perturbation is small and depends on the coordinates only, the triangular equilibria persist, except if for the unperturbed equilibria the first-order resonance occurs. We show that the resonances of the order higher than two are also preserved if the perturbation acts.     

On the informative value of the largest sample element of log-Gumbel distribution

Extremes of stream flow and precipitation are commonly modeled by heavytailed distributions. While scrutinizing annual flow maxima or the peaks over threshold, the largest sample elements are quite often suspected to be low quality data, outliers or values corresponding to much longer return periods than the observation period. Since the interest is primarily in the estimation of the right tail (in the case of floods or heavy rainfalls), sensitivity of upper quantiles to largest elements of a series constitutes a problem of special concern. This study investigated the sensitivity problem using the log-Gumbel distribution by generating samples of different sizes (n) and different values of the coefficient of variation by Monte Carlo experiments. Parameters of the log-Gumbel distribution were estimated by the probability weighted moments (PWMs) method, method of moments (MOMs) and maximum likelihood method (MLM), both for complete samples and the samples deprived of their largest elements. In the latter case, the distribution censored by the non-exceedance probability threshold, F _T , was considered. Using F _T instead of the censored threshold T creates possibility of controlling estimator property. The effect of the F _T value on the performance of the quantile estimates was then examined. It is shown that right censoring of data need not reduce an accuracy of large quantile estimates if the method of PWMs or MOMs is employed. Moreover allowing bias of estimates one can get the gain in variance and in mean square error of large quantiles even if ML method is used.     

A generalization of the fractal/facies model

In order to generalize the fractal/facies concept, a new stochastic fractal model for ln(K) increment probability density functions (PDFs) is presented that produces non-Gaussian behavior at smaller lags and converges to Gaussian at larger lags. The model is based on the classical Laplace PDF. The new stochastic fractal family is called fractional Laplace motion (fLam) having stationary increments called fractional Laplace noise (fLan). This fractal is different from other fractals because the character of the underlying increment PDFs changes dramatically with lag size, which leads to lack of self-similarity. Data also appear to display this characteristic. In the larger lag size ranges, approximate self-affinity does hold. The basic field procedure for further testing of the fractional Laplace theory is to measure ln(K) increment distributions along transects, calculate frequency distributions from the data, and compare results to appropriate fLan family members. The variances of the frequency distributions should also change with lag size (scale) in a prescribed manner. There are mathematical reasons such as the geometric central limit theorem, for surmising that fLam/fLan may be more fundamental than other approaches that have been proposed for modeling ln(K) frequency distributions.