Strong ground-motion relations for Mexican interplate earthquakes

We derive strong ground-motion relations for horizontal components of pseudo-acceleration response spectra from Mexican interplate earthquakes at rock sites (NEHRP B class) in the forearc region. The functional form is obtained from the analytical solution of a circular finite-source model. For the regression analysis we use a recently proposed multivariate Bayesian technique. The resulting model has similar accuracy as those models derived from regional and worldwide subduction-zone databases. However, there are significant differences in the estimations computed from our model and other models. First, our results reveal that attenuation in Mexico tends to be stronger than that of worldwide relations, especially for large events. Second, our model predicts ground motions for large earthquakes at close distances to the source that are considerably larger than the estimations of global models. Lack of data in this range makes it difficult to identify the most appropriate model for this scenario. Nevertheless, according to the available data at the city of Acapulco, our model seems to estimate seismic hazard more adequately than the other models. These new relations may be useful in computing seismic hazard for the Mexican forearc region, where no similar equations had been yet proposed.     

Improvement of Monsoon Depressions Forecast with Assimilation of Indian DWR Data Using WRF-3DVAR Analysis System

An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) radial velocity and reflectivity in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-3D variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for prediction of Bay of Bengal (BoB) monsoon depressions (MDs). Few numerical experiments are carried out to examine the individual impact of the DWR radial velocity and the reflectivity as well as collectively along with Global Telecommunication System (GTS) observations over the Indian monsoon region. The averaged 12 and 24 h forecast errors for wind, temperature and moisture at different pressure levels are analyzed. This evidently explains that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity collectively enhanced the performance of the WRF-3DVAR system over the Indian region. After identifying the optimal combination of DWR data, this study has also investigated the impact of assimilation of Indian DWR radial velocity and reflectivity data on simulation of the four different summer MDs that occurred over BoB. For this study, three numerical experiments (control no assimilation, with GTS and GTS along with DWR) are carried out to evaluate the impact of DWR data on simulation of MDs. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of DWR data has a positive impact on the prediction of the location, propagation and development of rain bands associated with the MDs. The simulated meteorological parameters and tracks of the MDs are reasonably improved after assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the other experiments. The root mean square errors (RMSE) of wind fields at different pressure levels, equitable skill score and frequency bias are significantly improved in the assimilation experiments mainly in DWR assimilation experiment for all MD cases. The mean Vector Displacement Errors (VDEs) are significantly decreased due to the assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the CNTL and 3DV_GTS experiments. The study clearly suggests that the performance of the model simulation for the intense convective system which influences the large scale monsoonal flow is significantly improved after assimilation of the Indian DWR data from even one coastal locale within the MDs track.     

Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing,GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin,Thailand

Abstract

This paper assesses strategic water availability and use under different development pathways on a basin scale using remote sensing (RS), geographical information systems (GIS) and a spatial water budget model (SWBM). The SWBM was applied to the Upper Ing Basin in northern Thailand to investigate the spatial and temporal variations in the location of streams and water yields from different parts of the basin. The base simulation was carried out for the years 1998–2007 using a DEM and actual land-use data at 100-m resolution. The simulated stream network was compared with topographic maps under different flow conditions, which were successfully represented. The 10-year average simulated river flow rate was 1300 L/s, but it more than doubled during periods of heavy rainfall and decreased below 600 L/s in dry seasons. The total length of the streams (based on flow threshold of 25 L/s) on a typical day in the dry season differed by a factor of approx. 1.5. Agricultural water needs and possible extraction were assessed and presented by dividing the basin into 10 different zones based on the stream network. The results show that there is the potential for harvesting significant quantities of water at different spatial gradients with no initial water supply for irrigation. Monthly water yields for each zone were computed; the results varied from less than 50% to over 137% of the per hectare water yield for the entire basin. This variation was due to differences in topography and land cover. The impact of land use and climate change on streamwater availability was also studied. The basin shows very different hydrological responses. The changes in average river flow relative to the base simulation were +27.6%,??32.1%, +94% and +52.9% under deforestation, changing land use from paddy field to orchard, bare soil and increased rainfall scenarios, respectively.

Citation Bahadur KC, K. (2011) Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing, GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 994–1014.     

Effects of terrain attributes on snow-cover dynamics in parts of Chenab basin,western Himalayas

ABSTRACT

Terrain variables are the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of snow cover. This paper aims to find a relationship between snow-cover area (SCA) and topographic variables (elevation, slope and aspect), using MODIS Terra data (MOD09A1) in parts of the Chenab basin, western Himalayas. The inter-annual variability of SCA% for each month has been analysed for the years 2000 to 2011. The analysis reveals that mean annual SCA value was maximum (37.89%) in 2005 and minimum (32.07%) in 2001. The slope classes with maximum and minimum SCA% are 5°–10° and 30°–35°, respectively. Among the 16 aspect classes, the ESE-facing slope evinces maximum SCA%. During the snow accumulation period, the expanse at 3600–4300 m elevation, and in the depletion period, 4300–5000 m elevation are found to have maximum rate of change in SCA% per 100 m rise in elevation, i.e. 3.37% and 3.67%, respectively.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean

The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s^?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast.     

Assessment of heavy metal pollution in lake sediments of Katedan Industrial Development Area,Hyderabad, India

Spatial distribution and temporal trends studies were carried out at Katedan Industrial Development Area (KIDA) near Hyderabad, capital of Andhra Pradesh state, India under Indo-Norwegian Institutional Cooperation Program, to find out the extent of contamination in streams and lake sediments from the discharge of industrial effluents. Stream and lake sediment samples were collected from the five lakes in the study area and connecting water streams. The samples were analyzed by XRF spectrometer for toxic elements. The studies reveal that the stream sediments with in the KIDA and the impounded Noor Mohammed Lake down stream have high concentration of some of the toxic elements like chromium, nickel, lead, arsenic, zinc etc. The geology of the area indicates that the study area consists of residual soil of acidic rocks, which are predominantly of Archaean gneisses and granites having low to medium concentrations of chromium and nickel. The source of these high concentration of elements like lead 2,300 mg/kg, copper 1,500 mg/kg, arsenic 500 mg/kg, chromium 500 mg/kg etc. cannot be derived from the surrounding acidic rocks and may be attributed to the industrial effluents released in the ditches and random dumping of hazardous solid waste. It was observed that the metal concentrations increased in the streams during the dry season (pre-monsoon period). After the monsoon rains, the metal concentrations in the streams were reduced by half which may be due to dilution. The eroded sediments are deposited in the lake where very high concentrations were encountered. Overflowing of the lake will spread the contamination further downstream. The lake sediments will remain as a major source of contamination by desorption to the water phase regardless of what happens to the effluent discharge in the KIDA. However, some samples showed enrichment of lead, arsenic and nickel during post-monsoon, which were collected near the dumpsite due to the leaching of toxic elements from the dump site to the lakes. Some of the toxic elements like nickel and copper have not shown any dilution but have increased after the rains, which could be due to the leaching of arsenic from the dumpsite to the lake along with rainwater. Geochemical maps showing the distribution of heavy/trace elements in streams and lakes are prepared and presented in this paper. Effect of toxic elements on the health of the residents in the surrounding residential areas is also discussed.     

Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal

The aim of the present study is to understand the impact of oceanic heat potential in relation to the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal during the pre-monsoon (April–May) and post-monsoon (October–November) cyclones for the period 2006–2010. To accomplish this, the two-layer gravity model (TLGM) is employed to estimate daily tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) utilizing satellite altimeter data, satellite sea surface temperature (SST), and a high-resolution comprehensive ocean atlas developed for Indian Ocean, subsequently validated with in situ ARGO profiles. Accumulated TCHP (ATCHP) is estimated from genesis to the maximum intensity of cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure along their track of all the cyclones for the study period using TLGM generated TCHP and six-hourly National Centre for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. Similarly, accumulated sea surface heat content (ASSHC) is estimated using satellite SST. In this study, the relationship between ATCHP and ASSHC with the central pressure (CP) which is a function of TC intensity is developed. Results reveal a distinct relationship between ATCHP and CP during both the seasons. Interestingly, it is seen that requirement of higher ATCHP during pre-monsoon cyclones is required to attain higher intensity compared to post-monsoon cyclones. It is mainly attributed to the presence of thick barrier layer (BL) resulting in higher enthalpy fluxes during post-monsoon period, where as such BL is non-existent during pre-monsoon period.     

Distribution of biochemical constituents in the surface sediments of western coastal Bay of Bengal: influence of river discharge and water column properties

Biochemical composition of surface sediment samples from off major and minor rivers along the east coast of India revealed that spatial distribution of sediment organic carbon (SOC) composition was mainly governed by differential characteristics of discharged water and associated biogeochemical processes in the water column. The northwest (NW) region of coastal Bay of Bengal was influenced by discharges from Ganges river while peninsular (monsoonal) rivers influenced the southwest (SW) region. The NW region characterized by low nutrients suspended particulate matter (SPM), high phytoplankton biomass in the water column and high SOC while contrasting to that observed in the SW region. The isotopic ratios of SOC (?22 ‰) in the NW region were close to that of organic matter derived from phytoplankton (?23 ‰) suggesting in situ production is the major source whereas terrigeneous source contributed significantly in the SW region (?19.6 ‰). Though low in situ biological production in the SW region, relatively higher total carbohydrates (TCHO) were found than in the NW and insignificant difference of total and free amino acid concentrations between NW and SW were resulted from faster removal of organic matter to the sediment in association with SPM in the SW region. Higher proteins concentrations than total amino acids indicate that nitrogenous organic matter is preserved in the former form. The protein to TCHO ratio was lower in the SW suggesting significant contribution of aged and non-living organic matter in this region.     

Aeromagnetic anomalies uncover the Precambrian basement in the Chhattisgarh basin area,Central India

This paper presents aeromagnetic images for the Chhattisgarh basin region, in Central India, to provide a new window on Precambrian basement geology and structure. On the basis of aeromagnetic patterns, the Chhattisgarh basin is sub-divided into a northern low (negative) anomaly zone and a southern high (positive) anomaly zone. The northern portion of the main Chhattisgarh basin has been further divided into two subbasins, the Hirri sub-basin in the west, and Baradwar sub-basin in the east. A prominent negative anomaly delineates a NW-SE trending greenstone belt separating these sub-basins. Positive magnetic anomalies delineate the extent of the Dongargarh granite and equivalents, while the weak magnetic anomaly in the southeast of the Dongargarh granite and equivalents reflect granulite gneisses of the Eastern Ghat Mobile Belt. By applying the reduced-to-the-equator filter we enhanced the possible magnetic sources and structural lineaments within the Chhattisgarh basin. A new sketch map of structural elements was then compiled from aeromagnetic interpretation over the Chhattisgarh basin area. It includes possible faults, folds and an inferred lithological boundary.     

Gravitational instability of a rotating partially-ionized plasma carrying a uniform magnetic field with hall effect

The problem of gravitational instability of an infinite homogeneous self-gravitating medium carrying a uniform magnetic field in the presence of Hall effect has been investigated to include the effect due to rotation. The dispersion relation has been obtained. It has been found that the Jeans's criterion for the instability remains unaffected even when the effect due to rotation is considered in the presence of Hall effect carrying a uniform magnetic.