Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905?C1917) and drought (1932?C1939, 1948?C1957, 1998?C2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900?C2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1?C2), we are able to reproduce the 1948?C1957 drought and 1905?C1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1?C2?C3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998?C2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932?C1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932?C1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998?C2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932?C1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.     

An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width

We present a simple, efficient, process-based forward model of tree-ring growth, called Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite), that requires as inputs only latitude and monthly temperature and precipitation. Simulations of six bristlecone pine ring-width chronologies demonstrate the interpretability of model output as an accurate representation of the climatic controls on growth. Ensemble simulations by VS-Lite of two networks of North American ring-width chronologies correlate with observations at higher significance levels on average than simulations formed by regression of ring width on the principal components of the same monthly climate data. VS-Lite retains more skill outside of calibration intervals than does the principal components regression approach. It captures the dominant low- and high-frequency spatiotemporal ring-width signals in the network with an inhomogeneous, multivariate relationship to climate. Because continuous meteorological data are most widely available at monthly temporal resolution, our model extends the set of sites at which forward-modeling studies are possible. Other potential uses of VS-Lite include generation of synthetic ring-width series for pseudo-proxy studies, as a data level model in data assimilation-based climate reconstructions, and for bias estimation in actual ring-width index series.     

Simultaneous time-lapse electrical resistivity inversion

Time-lapse monitoring is a powerful tool for observing dynamic changes in the subsurface. In particular it offers the potential for achieving inversion results with increased fidelity through the inclusion of complementary information from multiple time-steps. This inclusion of complementary information can reduce the need for spatial smoothing, without adding inversion artifacts to the resulting images. Commonly used time-lapse inversion methods include the ratio method, cascaded time-lapse inversion, difference inversion and differencing independent inversions. We introduce two additional methods in which both time-lapse data sets are inverted simultaneously. In the first, called temporally constrained time-lapse inversion, inversion of both datasets is done under a single optimization procedure and constraints are added to the regularization to ensure that the changes from one time to another are smooth. In the second method, called simultaneous time-lapse inversion, the inversions at time 1 and time 2 are performed simultaneously and constraints of smoothness and closeness to a reference model are applied to the difference image produced at each iteration, and subsequently, the constraints are updated at each iteration. Through both a numerical and a field example we compare the results of common time-lapse inversion methods as well as the introduced approaches. We found that of the commonly used time-lapse inversion methods the difference inversion method produced the best resolution of time-lapse changes and was the most robust in the presence of noise. However, we found that the alternative approach of simultaneous time-lapse inversion produced the best reconstruction of modeled EC changes in the numerical example and easily interpretable high resolution difference images in the field example. Moreover, there was less tailoring of regularization parameters with our simultaneous time-lapse approach, suggesting that it will lend itself well to an automated inversion code.     

An inter-comparison of Arctic synoptic scale storms between four global reanalysis datasets

Climate Dynamics - The Arctic is becoming more accessible as sea ice extent continues to decline, resulting in higher human exposure to Arctic storms. This study compares Arctic storm...     

Geomagnetic anomaly at Lunping before the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (M w = 7.6) in Taiwan

A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 (M _L  = 7.3) occurred on September 21, 1999, in central Taiwan. In order to discern any potential precursors before this earthquake, geomagnetic data at Lunping (LNP), Taiwan, Geomagnetic Observatory situated 100 km from the epicenter are examined using two methods, i.e., the traditional induction arrows and complex demodulation. Our results show that the remarkable temporal variation of real induction arrows appear to be strong prior to the great earthquake over the previous 24 months. After the great earthquake, the magnitudes of induction arrows decreased to the normal (mean of 8 years) levels. In other words, the direction of real induction arrows of the periods 30 and 20 min rotated 85° and 40° anticlockwise, respectively, before the Chi-Chi earthquake and returned to mean direction of last 10 years after the earthquake. A horizontal source field model using the finite difference method for 3-D shows that the variation of the real induction arrows might be ascribed to the conductivity variation body, which is 5 km buried at the epicenter area of the Chi-Chi earthquake, changing its conductivity from 0.002S/m to 0.06 S/m. The ratios of modulus (demodulated by using the complex demodulation method) over a period 12, and 8 h relative to the period of 24 h reveal a remarkable change that appeared 4–5 months prior to this strong earthquake. They increased gradually from the beginning of 1999 to August 1999 and decreased again to a (8 years) mean level after the strong earthquake occurrence. We consider that the variation of the induction arrow might be ascribed to the conductivity anomaly, which is buried 5 km at the south-east side of LNP with a conductivity change of 0.06 S/m. We propose that this elevation might be related to the preparation process of the great earthquake.     

Cosmogenic <Superscript>10</Superscript>Be-derived denudation rates of the Eastern and Southern European Alps

Denudation rates from cosmogenic ¹⁰Be measured in quartz from recent river sediment have previously been used in the Central Alps to argue that rock uplift occurs through isostatic response to erosion in the absence of ongoing convergence. We present new basin-averaged denudation rates from large rivers in the Eastern and Southern European Alps together with a detailed topographic analysis in order to infer the forces driving erosion. Denudation rates in the Eastern and Southern Alps of 170–1,400 mm ky⁻¹ are within a similar range to those in the Central Alps for similar lithologies. However, these denudation rates vary considerably with lithology, and their variability generally increases with steeper landscapes, where correlations with topographic metrics also become poorer. Tertiary igneous rocks are associated with steep hillslopes and channels and low denudation rates, whereas pre-Alpine gneisses usually exhibit steep hillslopes and higher denudation rates. Molasse, flysch, and schists display lower mean basin slopes and channel gradients, and, despite their high erodibility, low erosion rates. Exceptionally low denudation rates are also measured in Permian rhyolite, which has high mean basin slopes. We invoke geomorphic inheritance as a major factor controlling erosion, such that large erosive glaciers in the late Quaternary cold periods were more effective in priming landscapes in the Central Alps for erosion than in the interior Eastern Alps. However, the difference in tectonic evolution of the Eastern and Central Alps potentially adds to differences in their geomorphic response; their deep structures differ significantly and, unlike the Central Alps, the Eastern Alps are affected by ongoing tectonic influx due to the slow motion and rotation of Adria. The result is a complex pattern of high mountain erosion in the Eastern Alps, which has evolved from one confined to the narrow belt of the Tauern Window in late Tertiary time to one affecting the entire underthrust basement, orogenic lid, and parts of the Southern Alps today.     

Extensive carbonate cementation of fluvial sandstones: An integrated outcrop and petrographic analysis from the Upper Cretaceous, Book Cliffs, Utah

Extensive, large-scale pervasive cementation in the form of cement bodies within fluvial strata has rarely been documented although fluvial strata commonly act as important hydrocarbon reservoirs, as well as groundwater aquifers. Here, we present outcrop, petrographic and geochemical data for pervasive ferroan dolomite cement bodies up to 250 m in size from Upper Cretaceous Desert Member and Castlegate Sandstone fluvial strata exposed in the Book Cliffs in Utah. These cement bodies are present with coastal plain fluvial strata within both the Desert and Castlegate lowstand sandstones and are most abundant in the thin, distal fluvial strata. Cement bodies are almost entirely absent in updip, thicker, fluvial strata. Petrographic observations suggest a predominantly early diagenetic timing to the mildly ferroan dolomite, with a component of later burial origin. δ¹³C values for the cement (+4.8 to −5.7‰ V-PDB) suggest a marine-derived source for the earliest phase with a burial organic matter source for later cement. δ¹⁸O data (−6.3 to −11.8‰ V-PDB) suggest precipitation from freshwater dominated fluids. It is proposed here that dolomite was derived from leaching of detrital dolomite under lowstand coals and cementation took place in coastal aquifers experiencing mixed meteoric-marine fluids as a result of base-level fluctuations. This data presented here shows that large cement bodies can be an important component within fluvial sandstones with a potentially significant impact upon both reservoir quality and fluid flow within reservoirs, especially at the marine-non-marine interface.     

Short-term photoacclimation effects on photoinhibition of phytoplankton in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean)

We assessed whether short-term photoacclimation responses of natural phytoplankton populations in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean) were affecting protection from photodamage as cells are mixed up to the surface from depth. To this end, we measured phytoplankton fluorescence characteristics and their ratio of xanthophyll cycle pigment to photosynthetic pigments within the upper mixed layer (UML) and in short-term deck incubation experiments. Phytoplankton within the UML photoacclimated by increasing their ratio of xanthophyll cycle (diadinoxanthin [dd] and diatoxanthin [dt]) pigments to chlorophyll a. The photoacclimation processes observed within the UML did, however, not influence the protection of phytoplankton from photodamage during short-term near-surface irradiance experiments. Exposure to near-surface irradiance resulted in photodamage in all experiments, regardless of the phytoplankton community composition and irradiance levels. Incubating phytoplankton for six hours at either 2% or 50% of surface irradiance prior to exposure to near-surface irradiance did not alter the photodamage characteristics. This suggests that short-term photoacclimation processes within the UML are not adequate to protect phytoplankton from photodamage when cells are mixed up to the surface from depth, and that repair of damaged photosystems is crucial for maintaining photosynthesis under fluctuating irradiance conditions, even at very low mean irradiance levels. Likely, continuously operating photoacclimation processes offset to some extent the negative effects of photodamage on photosynthetic performance, albeit with increased metabolic costs.     

Constraining the timing of alluvial fan response to late quaternary climatic changes, southern Tunisia

The evolution of the Oued es Seffaia alluvial fan during the last 50,000 years is analyzed in the light of chronometric data derived from AMS radiocarbon and optical dating techniques. These ages have enabled the temporal constraint of the distalward progression of the intersection point (the upper limit of the locus of deposition) which has resulted in the telescopic segmentation of the fan. Comparison of these data with the Late Quaternary climatic history of the Maghreb highlights several problems of interpretation; due both to our limited knowledge of regional palaeoclimates and of the response of dryland fluvial systems to climate changes. However, our data provide some evidence to suggest that fan incision and formation of telescopic segments occurs in response to changes from arid to less arid conditions, supporting the conclusions of some of the work from other areas.