Sea level,climate change and coastal evolution in Morar,northwest Scotland

Analyses of geomorphologically contrasting sites in Morar, NW Scotland, describe the forcing mechanisms of coastal change. Isolation basins (i.e. basins behind rock sills and now isolated from the sea following isostatic uplift) accumulated continuous marine and freshwater sediments from c.12 to 2 ka BP. Raised dune, marsh and wetland sites register breaching, migration and stability of dunes from c. 9 to 2 ka BP. High-resolution methods designed to address issues of macroscale and microscale sea-level changes and patterns of storminess include 1-mm sampling for pollen, dinocyst and diatom analyses, infra-red photography, X-ray photography and thin-section analysis. The data enhance the record of relative sea-level change for the area. Major phases of landward migration of the coast occurred during the period of low sea-level rise in the mid-Holocene as the rate of rise decreased from c. 3 to < 1 mm/year. Relative sea-level change controls the broad pattern of coastal evolution at each site; local site-specific factors contribute to short-term process change. There is no record of extreme events such as tsunami. Within a system of dynamic metastable equilibrium, the Holocene records show that site-specific factors determine the exact timing of system breakdown, e.g. dune breaching, superimposed on regional sea-level rise. The global average sea-level rise of 3 to 6 mm/yr by AD 2050 predicted by IPCC would only partly be offset in the Morar area by isostatic uplift of about 1 mm/yr. A change from relative sea-level fall to sea-level rise, in areas where the regional rate of uplift no longer offsets global processes, is a critical factor in the management of coastal resources.     

Resonant tidal disruption in galactic nuclei

It has recently been shown by Rauch 38 Tremaine that the rate of angular momentum relaxation in nearly Keplerian star clusters is greatly increased by a process termed 'resonant relaxation'; it was also argued, via a series of scaling arguments, that tidal disruption of stars in galactic nuclei containing massive black holes could be noticeably enhanced by this process. We describe here the results of numerical simulations of resonant tidal disruption which quantitatively test the predictions made by Rauch 38 Tremaine. The simulation method is based on an N -body routine incorporating cloning of stars near the loss cone and a semirelativistic symplectic integration scheme. Normalized disruption rates for resonant and non-resonant nuclei are derived at orbital energies both above and below the critical energy, and the corresponding angular momentum distribution functions are found. The black hole mass above which resonant tidal disruption is quenched by relativistic precession is determined. We also briefly describe the discovery of chaos in the Wisdom–Holman symplectic integrator applied to highly eccentric orbits and propose a modified integration scheme that remains robust under these conditions. We find that resonant disruption rates exceed their non-resonant counterparts by an amount consistent with the predictions; in particular, we estimate the net tidal disruption rate for a fully resonant cluster to be about twice that of its non-resonant counterpart. No significant enhancement in rates is observed outside the critical radius. Relativistic quenching of the effect is found to occur for hole masses M  >  M _Q  = (8 ± 3) × 10⁷  M . The numerical results combined with the observed properties of galactic nuclei indicate that for most galaxies the resonant enhancement to tidal disruption rates will be very small.     

Stress fields of the San Andreas and Queen Charlotte transform faults

Analytic solutions to the stress fields resulting from the San Andreas and Queen Charlotte transform faults may be found by applying conformal mappings to the generalized plane stress solution of stresses in a half-plane. The mean stress fields (one-half the trace of the stress tensor) found in this manner show a similarity to the deformation found in western Canada and the western United States. The results refute the hypothesis that Alaska acts as a continental buttress against deformation of the Canadian Cordillera. Moreover, these results imply that the differences in the tectonics of major transform boundaries are caused primarily by differences in lithospheric structure and differences in stress distribution along the plate boundaries.     

Atmospheric Moisture Residence Times and Cycling: Implications for Rainfall Rates and Climate Change

New estimates of the moistening of the atmosphere through evaporation at the surface and of the drying through precipitation are computed. Overall, the e-folding residence time of atmospheric moisture is just over 8 days. New estimates are also made of how much moisture that precipitates out comes from horizontal transport versus local evaporation, referred to as recycling. The results depend greatly on the scale of the domain under consideration and global maps of the recycling for annual means are produced for 500 km scales for which global recycling is 9.6%, consisting of 8.9% over land and 9.9% over the oceans. Even for 1000 km scales, less than 20% of the annual precipitation typically comes from evaporation within the domain. While average overall atmospheric moisture depletion and restoration must balance, precipitation falls only a small fraction of the time. Thus precipitation rates are also examined. Over the United States, one hour intervals with 0.1 mm or more are used to show that the frequency of precipitation ranges from over 30% in the Northwest, to about 20% in the Southeast and less than 4% just east of the continental divide in winter, and from less than 2% in California to over 20% in the Southeast in summer. In midlatitudes precipitation typically falls about 10% of the time, and so rainfall rates, conditional on when rain is falling, are much larger than evaporation rates. The mismatches in the rates of rainfall versus evaporation imply that precipitating systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture already in the atmosphere. Over North America, much of the precipitation originates from moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Atlantic or Pacific a day or so earlier. Increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce global warming through an increase in downwelling infrared radiation, and thus not only increase surface temperatures but also enhance the hydrological cycle, as much of the heating at the surface goes into evaporating surface moisture. Global temperature increases signify that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases and, together with enhanced evaporation, this means that the actual atmospheric moisture should increase. It follows that naturally-occurring droughts are likely to be exacerbated by enhanced potential evapotranspiration. Further, globally there must be an increase in precipitation to balance the enhanced evaporation but the processes by which precipitation is altered locally are not well understood. Observations confirm that atmospheric moisture is increasing in many places, for example at a rate of about 5% per decade over the United States. Based on the above results, we argue that increased moisture content of the atmosphere therefore favors stronger rainfall or snowfall events, thus increasing risk of flooding, which is a pattern observed to be happening in many parts of the world. Moreover, because there is a disparity between the rates of increase of atmospheric moisture and precipitation, there are implied changes in the frequency of precipitation and/or efficiency of precipitation (related to how much moisture is left behind in a storm). However, an analysis of linear trends in the frequency of precipitation events for the United States corresponding to thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h shows that the most notable statistically significant trends are for increases in the southern United States in winter and decreases in the Pacific Northwest from November through January, which may be related to changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends. It is suggested that as the physical constraints on precipitation apply only globally, more attention should be paid to rates in both observations and models as well as the frequency of occurrence.     

Controls of variation in suspended sediment concentration in the River Rother, West Sussex, England

Suspended sediment concentrations were determined for samples collected from the River Rother, West Sussex, and rating loops constructed for several hydrographs. The rating loops often exhibit hysteresis with a greater suspended sediment concentration for a given discharge occurring on the rising limb than on the falling limb. A comparison of these loops indicates that the hysteresis, and the suspended sediment concentration (for a given discharge) become progressively reduced when storm events occur in rapid succession. Various types of rating curves can be identified, and a model of suspended sediment concentration and discharge constructed. Controlling factors of suspended sediment concentration are river discharge, duration and frequency of the storm event, the length of time between successive events, and the time of year.     

Active mud volcanoes on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan—first results from the P362/2 cruise of R/V Poseidon

In February 2008, cruise P362/2 was undertaken aboard R/V Poseidon to the Giza and North Alex mud volcanoes (MVs) on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan. Emitted fluids were strongly depleted in chloride and rich in hydrocarbons, predominantly of thermogenic origin. In-situ sediment temperature measurements indicate extremely high and moderate levels of activity for the North Alex MV and Giza MV, respectively, and suggest rapid changes from dormant to active stages. Both the physical properties of core sediments (e.g., color and magnetic susceptibility), and their assemblages of micro- and nannofossils point to different sources for the two mud volcanoes. Biostratigraphic dating suggests source depths of 2,100–2,450 mbsf for the Giza MV and 1,150–1,550 mbsf for the North Alex MV. Very high temperatures of up to 70°C in shallow sediments at the North Alex MV can be explained only if the fluid source were warmer and deeper than the sediment source.