Numerical orbits near the triangular lunar libration points

The behavior of a test particle placed at a triangular libration point of the Earth-Moon system is calculated using Newton's equations for the four-body problem, with arbitrarily chosen initial conditions. If the orbits of the massive bodies have their real eccentricities, then the test particle leaves the vicinity of the libration point in three years, much faster than if the orbits were circular. Very small particles are affected by solar radiation pressure, and may leave even faster.     

US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases

This paper focuses on the US Billion-dollar Weather/Climate Disaster report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. The current methodology for the production of this loss dataset is described, highlighting its strengths and limitations including sources of uncertainty and bias. The Insurance Services Office/Property Claims Service, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program and the US Department of Agriculture’s crop insurance program are key sources of quantified disaster loss data, among others. The methodology uses a factor approach to convert from insured losses to total direct losses, one potential limitation. An increasing trend in annual aggregate losses is shown to be primarily attributable to a statistically significant increasing trend of about 5 % per year in the frequency of billion-dollar disasters. So the question arises of how such trend estimates are affected by uncertainties and biases in the billion-dollar disaster data. The net effect of all biases appears to be an underestimation of average loss. In particular, it is shown that the factor approach can result in a considerable underestimation of average loss of roughly 10–15 %. Because this bias is systematic, any trends in losses from tropical cyclones appear to be robust to variations in insurance participation rates. Any attribution of the marked increasing trends in crop losses is complicated by a major expansion of the federally subsidized crop insurance program, as a consequence encompassing more marginal land. Recommendations concerning how the current methodology can be improved to increase the quality of the billion-dollar disaster dataset include refining the factor approach to more realistically take into account spatial and temporal variations in insurance participation rates.     

Identifying synergies and trade-offs in the sustainability–security nexus: the case of the Israeli–Palestinian wastewater treatment regime

ABSTRACT

The literature on environmental security often stresses the complementarity between sustainability and broader security goals. Less emphasis has been placed on possible trade-offs between security objectives and aspects of sustainability. This study examines the conditions under which these synergies and trade-offs are likely to occur, and how the trade-offs can be reconciled, especially during times of peacebuilding. As a case study, we analyse the effect of Israeli security concerns on environmental infrastructure designed to treat wastewater in the West Bank. This study identifies several sustainability–security trade-offs: (1) economic—in which security concerns raise costs of wastewater infrastructure, thereby crowding-out other potentially productive investments; (2) equity—in which security concerns result in disproportionate exposure of populations to environmental hazards; and (3) environmental—in which security concerns increase ecological footprints. Yet, our case study also indicates that both sides used a variety of creative measures to reconcile these trade-offs.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis GUEST EDITOR K. Aggestam     

Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.     

Infrasonic Signal Detection and Source Location at the Prototype International Data Centre

—?This paper describes an automatic and interactive data processing system designed to locate impulsive atmospheric sources with a yield of at least one kiloton by detecting and characterizing the airborne infrasound radiated by the source. The infrasonic processing subsystem forms part of a larger system currently under development at the Prototype International Data Center (PIDC) in Arlington, Virginia where seismic, hydroacoustic, radionuclide and infrasonic methods are used to detect and locate impulsive sources in any terrestrial environment. Infrasonic signal detection is achieved via a coincidence detector which requires both the normalized cross correlation and the short-term-average/long-term-average ratio of a beam in the direction of maximum correlation to exceed predetermined threshold values simultaneously before a detection is declared. The infrasound propagation model currently used to infer travel-time information assumes the horizontal sound speed across the ground to be 320.0?m/s. This crude model is currently being replaced by a model which predicts travel-time information through a ray-tracing algorithm for acoustic waves in an atmosphere with seasonal representations for temperature and wind. A novel feature of the source location process is the fusion of all available arrival information, whether it be seismic, hydroacoustic or infrasonic to locate a single source where it is reasonable to hypothesize a common source. In its final configuration the infrasonic subsystem will routinely process data from the global 60-station International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasonic network currently under development.     

Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages

Extreme events act as a catalyst for concern about whether the climate is changing. Statistical theory for extremes is used to demonstrate that the frequency of such events is relatively more dependent on any changes in the variability (more generally, the scale parameter) than in the mean (more generally, the location parameter) of climate. Moreover, this sensitivity is relatively greater the more extreme the event. These results provide additional support for the conclusions that experiments using climate models need to be designed to detect changes in climate variability, and that policy analysis should not rely on scenarios of future climate involving only changes in means.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Plate margin transition from oceanic arc-trench to continental system: The Kermadec-New Zealand example

The East Coast Fold Belt (ECFB) of the North Island, New Zealand, is the continuation of the Tonga-Kermadec arc-trench system. Structurally its tectonic front to the east defines the Indian-Pacific plate boundary. This, however, is not continuous with the Kermadec Trench. Large-scale fragmentation of the ECFB into segments of greatly varying width, strike and structure may be caused by a strongly segmented subducting plate, individual segments of which strike in different directions and have different dips and rates of subduction. Towards the southwest, regional change of strike with respect to plate motion has resulted in the formation of a broad shear zone marked by a strongly subsiding trough filled with rapidly deposited, largely undeformed sediments in front of the ECFB. This foredeep (Hikurangi Trough), which thus occupies the gap between ECFB (Indian plate) and the continental Chatham Rise (Pacific plate) is gradually being involved in the overall deformation, due to continuing motion of the Pacific plate to the southwest, in a slightly oblique sense along the shear zone. As a result, the Hikurangi Trough is shifting with time to the east-northeast. From a tectonic, structural and morphological point of view, it is unrelated to the Kermadec Trench which terminates in the region of East Cape.The structure of the ECFB is characterized mainly by extension normal to the plate boundary, with regional tilting and down-faulting of the continental margin. Effects of compression are observed only locally, and are often due to diapiric uplifts caused by widespread, undercompacted shale. Such diapirs form elongate structural highs which in many cases have supplied sediments into adjacent basins on their landward side. Overall the continental slope and margin are underlain by land-derived sediments which exhibit in-place deformation. Locally they extend as undeformed sediment aprons beyond the tectonicfront. There is no compelling evidence of a subduction complex of imbricate thrust slices. It is concluded that the tectonic evolution is not controlled by accretion but rather by subsidence and tectonic erosion along the continental margin. The conditions are complicated, however, because of the discrete change from an oceanic arc-trench subduction system to an intercontinental shear zone.