Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.     

Climate-related cyclic deposition of carbonate and organic matter in Holocene lacustrine sediment,Lower Michigan,USA

Records from lake sediment cores are critical for assessing the relative stability of climate and ecosystems over the Holocene. Duck Lake in south-central Lower Michigan, USA, was the focus of a study that identified how changes in the geochemical variables in lake sediments relate to variations in regional climate and local land use during the Holocene. More than 8.5 m of lacustrine sediment were recovered using Livingston and freeze corers and analyzed for organic carbon, inorganic (carbonate) carbon, total nitrogen, and trace metals. Repeating packages of sediment (1–10 cm thick) that grade from light (inorganic carbon-rich) to dark (organic carbon-rich) were found from the surface to a depth of about 8 m. Variations in the high-resolution gray scale data from core X-radiographs are highly correlated to the relative amount of inorganic carbon. Geochemical analyses of the upper 8.5 m of sediment revealed a wide range of values: 0.05–10.6% for inorganic carbon (i.e. 0.5–89% calcium carbonate) and 1.1–28% for organic carbon (i.e. 2.7–70% organic matter). Organic carbon to nitrogen ratios indicate that most of the sediment organic matter is produced within the lake. A core chronology based on eight AMS radiocarbon dates shows low sediment accumulation rates (0.05 cm/year) from 10,000 to 3,800 cal year BP and higher sediment accumulation rates (0.1–0.3 cm/year) from 3,800 cal year BP to present. We suggest that carbonate accumulates during relatively dry times, whereas organic matter accumulation dominates when nutrient input to the lake is enhanced by wetter climate. The Duck Lake core records a distinct low point in inorganic carbon deposition that may be related to the 8.2 ka cooling event now documented from several sites in North America. Spectral analysis of gray scale values shows significant ~200-year periodicities over the past 8,000 years, hypothesized to result from climate changes induced by solar forcing. Concentrations of trace metals (e.g. lead, iron, copper, zinc) indicate the onset of regional anthropogenic influence about 150 cal year BP.     

Channel response to an extreme flood and sediment pulse in a mixed bedrock and gravel‐bed river

We exploit a natural experiment caused by an extreme flood (~500 year recurrence interval) and sediment pulse derived from more than 2500 concurrent landslides to explore the influence of valley‐scale geomorphic controls on sediment slug evolution and the impact of sediment pulse passage and slug deposition and dispersion on channel stability and channel form. Sediment slug movement is a crucial process that shapes gravel‐bed rivers and alluvial valleys and is an important mechanism of downstream bed material transport. Further, increased bed material transport rates during slug deposition can trigger channel responses including increases in lateral mobility, channel width, and alluvial bar dominance. Pre‐ and post‐flood LiDAR and aerial photographs bracketing the 2007 flood on the Chehalis River in south‐western Washington State, USA, document the channel response with high spatial and temporal definition. The sediment slug behaved as a Gilbert Wave, with both channel aggradation and sequestration of large volumes of material in floodplains of headwaters' reaches and reaches where confined valleys enter into broad alluvial valleys. Differences between the valley form of two separate sub‐basins impacted by the pulse highlight the important role channel and channel‐floodplain connectivity play in governing downstream movement of sediment slug material. Finally, channel response to the extreme flood and sediment pulse illustrate the connection between bed material transport and channel form. Specifically, the channel widened, lateral channel mobility increased, and the proportion of the active channel covered by bars increased in all reaches in the study area. The response scaled tightly with the relative amount of bed material sediment transport through individual reaches, indicating that the amount of morphological change caused by the flood was conditioned by the simultaneous introduction of a sediment pulse to the channel network. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From paleo to policy: partitioning the historical point and nonpoint phosphorus loads to the St. Croix River,Minnesota-Wisconsin,USA

Paleolimnological studies show that phosphorus (P) loads to the federally protected St. Croix River, a tributary of the Upper Mississippi River, have increased about threefold over the last century. Ongoing management efforts to protect and restore the river hinge on the question of whether the increased nutrient load results from point-source discharges or nonpoint runoff from agricultural intensification and urban expansion. Here we determine the historical contribution of point source phosphorus (P) loads to the St. Croix watershed from 1900–2000 A.D. Historical point source loads were estimated based on discharge volumes, demographics, industrial sources, wastewater technologies, and facility discharge records, where available. Sewering in the basin began in 1905, and since that time, there have been as many as 169 permitted point source dischargers basinwide, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural facilities. Early wastewater management typically discharged untreated sewage; technological advances had secondary treatment in place at most facilities by the 1960s–1970s and much of the municipal population was served by tertiary treatment by the 1990s. Peak nutrient discharges from point sources occurred in the 1960s–1970s. Detergent phosphorus bans instituted in the late 1970s for Minnesota and Wisconsin, greater use of land and groundwater effluent disposal, and improvements in treatment technology brought about decreases in P loads in the 1980s and 1990s. Point-source discharges were compared to historical total phosphorus loads estimated in a whole-basin phosphorus mass balance to calculate the historical contribution of point sources, anthropogenic nonpoint sources, and natural or background sources. We estimated 1990s point source loads at 48 t P yr⁻¹, which represents about 10% of the total phosphorus load (459 t P yr⁻¹, flow-corrected to 412 t P yr⁻¹) to the basin. Without further controls on nutrient inputs to the St. Croix River, annual flow-corrected P loads are projected to increase to 498 t P yr⁻¹ by the 2020s with point source phosphorus loading contributions at 65 t P yr⁻¹ or 13% of the total load. However, if we exclude background P loads to the St. Croix (166 t P yr⁻¹), recent nutrient loads are primarily from anthropogenic nonpoint sources. Point sources also contribute over 19% of the current and future phosphorus load that can be attributed to human activities in the watershed. Interstate and federal efforts to decrease P loading to the St. Croix River by 20% will need to target both point and nonpoint sources. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

对虾传染性肌肉坏死病研究进展

对虾传染性肌肉坏死病(infectious myonecrosis,IMN)最初于2002年8月爆发于巴西Piaui州的凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)养殖场,并很快在巴西东北沿岸蔓延开来,目前已传至亚洲.2004年,经美国亚利桑那大学(University of Arizona)水产病害实验室研究,该病为一种新的对虾疾病,根据其症状,暂定名为传染性肌肉坏死病.     

Genesis and continuity of quaternary sand and gravel in glacigenic sediment at a proposed low-level radioactive waste disposal site in east-central Illinois

The Illinois Department of Nuclear Safety has characterized the Martinsville Alternative Site (MAS) for a proposed low-level radioactive waste disposal facility. The MAS is located in east-central Illinois approximately 1.6 km (1 mi) north of the city of Martinsville. Geologic investigation of the 5.5-km² (1380-acre) site revealed a sequence of chiefly Illinoian glacigenic sediments from 6 to 60 m (20–200 ft) thick overlying two major bedrock valleys carved in Pennsylvanian strata. Relatively permeable buried units include basal, preglacial alluvium; a complex of intraglacial and subglacial sediment; englacial deposits; and supraglacial fluvial deposits. Postglacial alluvium underlies stream valleys on and adjacent to the site. In most areas, the buried sand units are confined by low-permeability till, lacustrine sediment, colluvium, and loess. The distribution and thickness of the most extensive and continuous buried sand units have been modified considerably by subglacial erosion, and their distributions have been influenced by the buried bedrock valleys. The most continuous of the various sand units were deposited as preglacial and postglacial alluvium and are the uppermost and lowermost stratigraphic units at the alternative site. Sand units that were deposited in englacial or ice-marginal environments are less continuous. Aquifer pumping tests, potentiometric head data, and groundwater geochemistry analyses indicate minimal interaction of groundwater across localized interconnections of the permeable units.     

Snowmelt variability in Polar Bear Pass,Nunavut, Canada,from QuikSCAT: 2000–2009

Snowmelt onset and end date estimates are made from QuikSCAT scatterometer measurements in the Canadian High Arctic wetland of Polar Bear Pass (PBP) and the surrounding region of Bathurst Island, Nunavut. In situ data within PBP is used to validate QuikSCAT snowmelt onset/end date estimates. Results indicate that within PBP from 2000 to 2009, the mean snowmelt onset date was Year Day (YD) 162, the mean snowmelt end date was YD179, and the mean snowmelt duration was 17 days. More interannual variability was apparent in snowmelt end date and duration compared with onset, and only snowmelt end date was significantly correlated with mean June air temperature at ?0.78. Cooler air temperatures in 2004 contributed to a long snowmelt duration of 24 days, and the very short snowmelt duration in 2007 of just 11 days was caused by rapid and sustained increases in air temperature. For snowmelt end date and duration the mean spatial pattern revealed two centres of later snowmelt end date/longer snowmelt duration over Bathurst Island. They were separated by early snowmelt end date/short snowmelt duration in PBP. These patterns are in agreement with the spatial distribution of mean May to July air temperature over Bathurst Island and are likely influenced by the local‐scale topography of Bathurst Island. Given the correlation between air temperature and snowmelt end date, we might expect quicker snowmelt under increased warming. The latter process may have implications for the sustainability of the PBP wetland under a warmer climate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia

Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term.     

Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.