The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups

Evaluation and communication of the relative degree of certainty in assessment findings are key cross-cutting issues for the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A goal for the Fifth Assessment Report, which is currently under development, is the application of a common framework with associated calibrated uncertainty language that can be used to characterize findings of the assessment process. A guidance note for authors of the Fifth Assessment Report has been developed that describes this common approach and language, building upon the guidance employed in past Assessment Reports. Here, we introduce the main features of this guidance note, with a focus on how it has been designed for use by author teams. We also provide perspectives on considerations and challenges relevant to the application of this guidance in the contribution of each Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report. Despite the wide spectrum of disciplines encompassed by the three Working Groups, we expect that the framework of the new uncertainties guidance will enable consistent communication of the degree of certainty in their policy-relevant assessment findings.     

Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report

The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since the First Assessment Report, have involved calibrated uncertainty language and other methods aimed towards clear communication of the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process. There has been a continuing tradition of iterative improvement of the treatment of uncertainties in these assessments. Here we consider the motivations for the most recent revision of the uncertainties guidance provided to author teams of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). We first review the history of usage of calibrated language in IPCC Assessment Reports, along with the frameworks for treatment of uncertainties that have been provided to IPCC author teams. Our primary focus is the interpretation and application of the guidance provided to author teams in the Fourth Assessment Report, with analysis of the successes and challenges in the application of this guidance and approaches taken in usage of its calibrated uncertainty language. We discuss the ways in which the AR5 Guidance Note attempts to refine the calibrated uncertainty metrics and formalize their interrelationships to improve the consistency of treatment of uncertainties across the Working Group contributions.     

Climate change and the water–energy–food nexus: insights from policy and practice in Tanzania

The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are common and often based around sectors with strong inter-dependencies that are highly exposed to climate variability. Using document analysis and key informant interviews, this article examines how climate change is addressed in policy, how it is being mainstreamed into water, energy and agriculture sector policies and the extent to which cross-sectoral linkages enable coordinated action. These questions are addressed through a case study of Tanzania, highlighting broader lessons for other developing countries, particularly those in SSA facing similar challenges. The article finds that, while the agriculture and water sectors are increasingly integrating climate change into policies and plans in Tanzania, practical coordination on adaptation remains relatively superficial. Publication of the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 marked a step change in the integration of climate change in sectoral policies and plans; however, it may have reinforced a sectoral approach to climate change. Examining the policies for coherence highlights overlaps and complementarities which lend themselves to a coordinated approach. Institutional constraints (particularly structures and resources) restrict opportunities for inter-sectoral action and thus collaboration is confined to ad hoc projects with mixed success to date. The results highlight the need for institutional frameworks that recognize and address these constraints to enable development goals to be pursued in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner.

KEY POLICY INSIGHTS

• The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sectoral policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach.

• Collaboration between nexus sectors in Tanzania is largely through ad hoc projects with limited progress on establishing deeper connections to enable collaboration as a process. Regular cross-sectoral planning meetings and consistent annual budgets could provide a platform to enhance cross-sectoral coordination.

• Plans to develop hydropower and agriculture are prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. Insights from Tanzania highlight the importance of institutional and policy frameworks that enable cross-sectoral coordination.

     

The role of sea ice formation in cycling of aluminium in northern Marguerite Bay,Antarctica

The use of dissolved Al as a tracer for oceanic water masses and atmospheric dust deposition of biologically important elements, such as iron, requires the quantitative assessment of its sources and sinks in seawater. Here, we address the relative importance of oceanic versus atmospheric inputs of Al, and the relationship with nutrient cycling, in a region of high biological productivity in coastal Antarctica. We investigate the concentrations of dissolved Al in seawater, sea ice, meteoric water and sediments collected from northern Marguerite Bay, off the West Antarctic Peninsula, from 2005 to 2006. Dissolved Al concentrations at 15 m water depth varied between 2 and 27 nM, showing a peak between two phytoplankton blooms. We find that, in this coastal setting, upwelling and incorporation of waters from below the surface mixed layer are responsible for this peak in dissolved Al as well as renewal of nutrients. This means that changes in the intensity and frequency of upwelling events may result in changes in biological production and carbon uptake. The waters below the mixed layer are most likely enriched in Al as a result of sea ice formation, either causing the injection of Al-rich brines or the resuspension of sediments and entrainment of pore fluids by brine cascades. Glacial, snow and sea ice melt contribute secondarily to the supply of Al to surface waters. Total particulate Al ranges from 93 to 2057 mg/g, and increases with meteoric water input towards the end of the summer, indicating glacial runoff is an important source of particulate Al. The (Al/Si)_opal of sediment core top material is considerably higher than water column opal collected by sediment traps, indicative of a diagenetic overprint and incorporation of Al at the sediment–water interface. Opal that remains buried in the sediment could represent a significant sink of Al from seawater.     

Morphological descriptions and stratigraphic distributions of the chrysophycean stomatocysts from a recently acidified lake (Adirondack Park,N.Y.)

The chrysophycean stomatocyst flora from the sediments of Upper Wallface Pond, a recently acidified Adirondack lake, was described according to the guidelines of the International Statospore Working Group. Sixty-six morphotypes were distinguished, using scanning electron microscopy. Twenty-eight of these cysts were distinguishable using the light microscope (LM), whereas 30 required grouping into 11 collective categories from LM identification, and 7 could not be identified using LM. None of our morphotypes could be linked definitively to the living chrysophyte species that produced them. Stratigraphic analysis showed that a marked change in the cyst assemblage occurred in the 1930's. Previous paleoecological studies inferred a pronouced pH decline at this time. Redundancy analysis of our data showed that diatom-inferred pH explained a significant amount of variation (Monte Carlo permutation test; p=0.01). This suggests that pH influences chrysophyte populations, and that stomatocysts could eventually be used to reconstruct pH and other variables.This is the fourth in a series of four papers published in this dedicated issue entitled Application of Chrysophyte Stomatocysts in Paleolimnology. Dr. C. D. Sandgren served as guest editor for these papers.     

A laboratory model of surface crust formation and disruption on lava flows through non-uniform channels

Crust formation on basaltic lava flows dictates conditions of both flow cooling and emplacement. For this reason, flow histories are dramatically different depending on whether lava is transported through enclosed lava tubes or through open channels. Recent analog experiments in straight uniform channels (Griffiths et al. J Fluid Mech 496:33–62, 2003) have demonstrated that tube flow, dictated by a stationary surface crust, can be distinguished from a mobile crust regime, where a central solid crust is separated from channel walls by crust-free shear zones, by a simple dimensionless parameter ϑ, such that ϑ<25 produces tube flow and ϑ>25 describes the mobile crust regime. ϑ combines a previously determined parameter ψ, which describes the balance between the formation rate of surface solid and the shear strain that disrupts the solid crust, with the effects of thermal convection (described by the Rayleigh number Ra).Here we explore ways in which ϑ can be used to describe the behavior of basaltic lava channels. To do this we have extended the experimental approach to examine the effects of channel irregularities (expansions, contractions, sinuosity, and bottom roughness) on crust formation and disruption. We find that such changes affect local flow behavior and can thus change channel values of ϑ. For example, gradual widening of a channel results in a decrease in flow velocity that causes a decrease in ϑ and may allow a down-flow transition from the mobile crust to the tube regime. In contrast, narrowing of the channel causes an increase in flow velocity (increasing ϑ), thus inhibiting tube formation.We also quantify the fraction of surface covered by crust in the mobile crust regime. In shallow channels, variations in crust width (d _c) with channel width (W) are predicted to follow d _c∼W ^5/3. Analysis of channelized lava flows in Hawaii shows crustal coverage consistent with this theoretical result along gradually widening or narrowing channel reaches. An additional control on crustal coverage in both laboratory and basaltic flows is disruption of surface crust because of flow acceleration through constrictions, around bends, and over breaks in slope. Crustal breakage increases local rates of cooling and may cause local blockage of the channel, if crusts rotate and jam in narrow channel reaches. Together these observations illustrate the importance of both flow conditions and channel geometry on surface crust development and thus, by extension, on rates and mechanisms of flow cooling. Moreover, we note that this type of analysis could be easily extended through combined use of FLIR and LiDAR imaging to measure crustal coverage and channel geometry directly.Editorial responsibility: A. Harris     

Tephra-fall deposits from the 1992 eruption of Crater Peak, Alaska: implications of clast textures for eruptive processes

 The 1992 eruption of Crater Peak, Mount Spurr, Alaska, involved three subplinian tephra-producing events of similar volume and duration. The tephra consists of two dense juvenile clast types that are identified by color, one tan and one gray, of similar chemistry, mineral assemblage, and glass composition. In two of the eruptive events, the clast types are strongly stratified with tan clasts dominating the basal two thirds of the deposits and gray clasts the upper one third. Tan clasts have average densities between 1.5 and 1.7 g/cc and vesicularities (phenocryst free) of approximately 42%. Gray clasts have average densities between 2.1 and 2.3 g/cc, and vesicularities of approximately 20%; both contain abundant microlites. Average maximum plagioclase microlite lengths (13–15 μm) in gray clasts in the upper layer are similar regardless of eruptive event (and therefore the repose time between them) and are larger than average maximum plagioclase microlite lengths (9–11 μm) in the tan clasts in the lower layer. This suggests that microlite growth is a response to eruptive processes and not to magma reservoir heterogeneity or dynamics. Furthermore, we suggest that the low vesicularities of the clasts are due to syneruptive magmatic degassing resulting in microlitic growth prior to fragmentation and not to quenching of clasts by external groundwater. Received: 5 September 1997 / Accepted: 1 February 1998     

Deglacial to middle Holocene (16,600 to 6000 calendar years BP) climate change in the northeastern United States inferred from multi-proxy stable isotope data, Seneca Lake, New York

Climate change in the northeastern United States has been inferred for the last deglaciation to middle Holocene (∼16,600 to 6000 calendar years ago) using multi-proxy data (total organic matter, total carbonate content, δ¹⁸ O calcite and δ¹³ C calcite) from a 5 m long sediment core from Seneca Lake, New York. Much of the regional postglacial warming occurred during the well-known Bolling and Allerod warm periods (∼14.5 to 13.0 ka), but climate amelioration in the northeastern United States preceded that in Greenland by ∼2000 years. An Oldest Dryas climate event (∼15.1 to 14.7 ka) is recognized in Seneca Lake as is a brief Older Dryas (∼14.1 ka) cold event. This latter cold event correlates with the regional expansion of glacial Lake Iroquois and global meltwater pulse IA. An increase in winter precipitation and a shorter growing season likely characterized the northeastern United States at this time. The Intra-Allerod Cold Period (∼13.2 ka) is also evident supporting an “Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation” at this time. The well-known Younger Dryas cold interval occurred in the northeastern United States between 12.9 and 11.6 ka, consistent with ice core data from Greenland. In the Seneca Lake record, however, the Younger Dryas appears as an asymmetric event characterized by an abrupt, high-amplitude beginning followed by a more gradual recovery. Compared to European records, the Younger Dryas in the northeastern United States was a relatively low-amplitude event. The largest amplitude and longest duration anomaly in the Seneca Lake record occurs after the Younger Dryas, between ∼11.6 and 10.3 ka. This “post-Younger Dryas climate interval” represents the last deglacial climate event prior to the start of the Holocene in the northeastern United States, but has not been recognized in Greenland or Europe. The early to middle Holocene in the northeastern United States was characterized by low-amplitude climate variability. A general warming trend during the Holocene Hypsithermal peaked at ∼9 ka coincident with maximum summer insolation controlled by orbital parameters. Millennial- to century-scale variability is also evident in the Holocene Seneca Lake record, including the well-known 8.2 ka cold event (as well as events at ∼7.1 and 6.6 ka). Hemispherical cooling during the Holocene Neoglacial in the northeastern United States began ∼5.5 ka in response to decreasing summer insolation.