Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.     

北斗卫星导航系统双差动力法精密定轨及其精度分析

针对GEO卫星切向轨道分量与双差模糊度强相关的问题,对经典双差动力法进行了改进,提出联合使用载波相位和相位平滑伪距实现北斗系统精密定轨,并从理论上分析了以上处理策略的可行性及对模糊度固定的影响,然后结合北斗系统精密定轨特点,推导给出了利用QIF方法实现北斗卫星双差模糊度固定的基本原理,实测数据分析表明:联合载波相位和相位平滑伪距,既可降低相关性,又可兼顾精度,定轨效果优于经典双差动力法;利用QIF方法能够取得一定的模糊度固定效果,但受观测条件限制,北斗卫星双差模糊度固定成功率整体不高,双差模糊度固定之后对轨道的改进作用有限。     

A closed-loop EKF and multi-failure diagnosis approach for cooperative GNSS positioning

Current cooperative positioning with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) for connected vehicle application mainly uses pseudorange measurements. However, the positioning accuracy offered cannot meet the requirements for lane-level positioning, collision avoidance and future automatic driving, which needs real-time positioning accuracy of better than 0.5 m. Furthermore, there is an apparent lack of research into the integrity issue for these new applications under emerging driverless vehicle applications. In order to overcome those problems, a new extended Kalman filter (EKF) and a multi-failure diagnosis algorithm are developed to process both GNSS pseudorange and carrier phase measurements. We first introduce a new closed-loop EKF with partial ambiguity resolution as feedback to address the low accuracy issue. Then a multi-failure diagnosis algorithm is proposed to improve integrity and reliability. The core of this new algorithm includes using Carrier phase-based Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring method for failure detection, and the double extended w test detectors to identify failure. A cooperative positioning experiment was carried out to validate the proposed method. The results show that the proposed closed-loop EKF can provide highly accurate positioning, and the multi-failure diagnosis method is effective in detecting and identifying failures for both code and carrier phase measurements.     

Exploring the spatially varying innovation capacity of the US counties in the framework of Griliches’ knowledge production function: a mixed GWR approach

Griliches’ knowledge production function has been increasingly adopted at the regional level where location-specific conditions drive the spatial differences in knowledge creation dynamics. However, the large majority of such studies rely on a traditional regression approach that assumes spatially homogenous marginal effects of knowledge input factors. This paper extends the authors’ previous work (Kang and Dall’erba in Int Reg Sci Rev, 2015. doi: 10.1177/0160017615572888) to investigate the spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects by using nonparametric local modeling approaches such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed GWR with two distinct samples of the US Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and non-MSA counties. The results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of the knowledge input variables, more specifically for the local and distant spillovers of private knowledge measured across MSA counties. On the other hand, local academic knowledge spillovers are found to display spatially homogenous elasticities in both MSA and non-MSA counties. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each county’s innovation capacity and suggest policy implications for regional innovation strategies.     

Atmospheric insight to climatic signals of δ~(18)O in a Laohugou ice core in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2006

δ~(18)O variations;;ice core;;outgoing longwave radiation;;meridional wind;;northeastern Tibetan Plateau     

柴达木盆地鱼卡地区中侏罗统页岩气成藏条件

通过地质钻井、野外现场解吸、样品实验分析等,对柴达木盆地鱼卡地区中侏罗统页岩气成藏条件进行了研究。结果表明,鱼卡地区中侏罗统泥页岩主要发育于大煤沟组第五段和石门沟组,是一套以辫状河三角洲间湾、辫状河三角洲平原和湖泊相为主的优质烃源岩,累计厚度38~300m,TOC为0.12%~13.23%,Ro为0.29%~0.89%。石英含量为18.0%~63.3%,粘土矿物含量为10.1%~55.6%,孔隙度为1.53%~14.92%,渗透率为0.007×10-3~6.24×10-3μm2。微孔隙发育,主要有粒间孔、溶蚀孔、粒内孔,孔隙直径多为0.3~3μm。泥页岩含气量为0.42~0.83m3/t,解吸气CH4含量8.6%~64.9%,δ13C1为-80.59‰~-63.32‰。与国内外含气泥页岩对比发现,研究区中侏罗统泥页岩具有厚度大、TOC高、石英含量居中的特点,但分布面积小、成熟度低、含气量小,且自中、新生代以来经历了多期次构造运动,对页岩气的保存影响较大。预测鱼卡地区中侏罗统页岩气勘探前景,还需重点加强构造作用对页岩气保存的影响及页岩气成因类型、资源量评估等方面的研究。     

Rare earth element fingerprints in Korean coastal bay sediments: Association with provenance discrimination

Rare earth elements (REEs: La-Lu) in surface sediments collected from the mouth and middle tidal flats of Gomso Bay, South Korea, in August 2011 and May 2012 were analyzed to investigate the fine-grained sediment provenance. The upper continental crust (UCC)-normalized light REEs (LREEs: La to Nd) were more enriched than the middle REEs (MREEs: Sm to Dy) and heavy REEs (HREEs: Ho to Lu), resulting in large (La/Yb)_UCC (1.9 ± 0.4) to (Gd/Yb)_UCC (1.4 ± 0.2) ratios. The monthly (La/Yb)_UCC values differed between the mouth and middle tidal flats due to deposition of fine-grained sediments that originated from distant rivers (the Geum and Yeongsan) and the Jujin Stream, located on the southern shore of the inner bay. We observed relative reductions in the (La/Yb)_UCC value and REE content in the sediments from the mouth of the bay compared with those from Jujin Stream sediments. Confined to the middle tidal flat around the KH Line of Jujin Stream, the sediments, most enriched in LREEs but depleted in Eu, were distributed in August as strong Jujin Stream runs. Here, we suggest that an increase in LREE/HREE and decrease in MREE/LREE ratios can be used as a proxy to identify the Jujin Stream provenance in mixed riverine sediments and to trace Jujin Stream sediments within the Gomso Bay tidal flat, especially in the summer rainy season.     

Genetic stock identification of immature chum salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus keta</Emphasis>) in the western Bering Sea, 2004

Genetic stock identification studies have been widely applied to Pacific salmon species to estimate stock composition of complex mixed-stock fisheries. In a September-October 2004 survey, 739 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) specimens were collected from 23 stations in the western Bering Sea. We determined the genetic stock composition of immature chum salmon based on the previous mitochondria DNA baseline. Each regional estimate was computed based on the conditional maximum likelihood method using 1,000 bootstrap resampling and then pooled to the major regional groups: Korea - Japan - Primorie (KJP) / Russia (RU) / Northwest Alaska (NWA) / Alaska Peninsula - Southcentral Alaska - Southeast Alaska - British Columbia - Washington (ONA). The stock composition of immature chum salmon in the western Bering Sea was a mix of 0.424 KJP, 0.421 RU, 0.116 NWA, and 0.039 ONA stocks. During the study period, the contribution of Asian chum salmon stocks gradually changed from RU to KJP stock. In addition, North American populations from NWA and ONA were small but present near the vicinity of the Russian coast and the Commander Islands, suggesting that the study areas in the western Bering Sea were an important migration route for Pacific chum salmon originating both from Asia and North America during the months of September and October. These results make it possible to better understand the chum salmon stock composition of the mixed-stock fisheries in the western Bering Sea and the stock-specific distribution pattern of chum salmon on the high-seas.