Ground-based observations of time variability in multiple active volcanoes on Io

Since before the beginning of the Galileo spacecraft’s Jupiter orbital tour, we have observed Io from the ground using NASA’s Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). We obtained images of Io in reflected sunlight and in-eclipse at 2.3, 3.5, and 4.8 μm. In addition, we have measured the 3.5 μm brightness of an eclipsed Io as it is occulted by Jupiter. These lightcurves enable us to measure the brightness and one-dimensional location of active volcanoes on the surface. During the Galileo era, two volcanoes were observed to be regularly active: Loki and either Kanehekili and/or Janus. At least 12 other active volcanoes were observed for shorter periods of time, including one distinguishable in images that include reflected sunlight. These data can be used to compare volcano types and test volcano eruption models, such as the lava lake model for Loki.     

N and O isotope effects during nitrate assimilation by unicellular prokaryotic and eukaryotic plankton cultures

In order to provide biological systematics from which to interpret nitrogen (N) and oxygen (O) isotope ratios of nitrate (¹⁵N/¹⁴N, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O, respectively) in the environment, we previously investigated the isotopic fractionation of nitrate during its assimilation by mono-cultures of eukaryotic algae (Granger et al., 2004). In this study, we extended our analysis to investigate nitrate assimilation by strains of prokaryotic plankton. We measured the N and O isotope effects, ¹⁵ε and ¹⁸ε, during nitrate consumption by cultures of prokaryotic strains and by additional eukaryotic phytoplankton strains (where ε is the ratio of reaction rate constants of the light vs. heavy isotopologues, ^lightk and ^heavyk; ε = ^lightk/^heavyk − 1 × 1000, expressed in per mil). The observed ¹⁵ε ranged from 5‰ to 8‰ among eukaryotes, whereas it did not exceed 5‰ for three cyanobacterial strains, and was as low as 0.4‰ for a heterotrophic α-protoeobacterium. Eukaryotic phytoplankton fractionated the N and O isotopes of nitrate to the same extent (i.e., ¹⁸ε ∼ ¹⁵ε). The ¹⁸ε:¹⁵ε among the cyanobacteria was also ∼1, whereas the heterotrophic α-proteobacterial strain, which showed the lowest ¹⁵ε, between 0.4‰ and 1‰, had a distinct ¹⁸ε:¹⁵ε of ∼2, unlike any plankton strain observed previously. Equivalent N vs. O isotope discrimination is thought to occur during internal nitrate reduction by nitrate reductase, such that the cellular efflux of the fractionated nitrate into the medium drives the typically observed ¹⁸ε:¹⁵ε of ∼1. We hypothesize that the higher in the ¹⁸ε:¹⁵ε of the α-proteobacterium may result from isotope discrimination by nitrate transport, which is evident only at low amplitude of ε. These observations warrant investigating whether heterotrophic bacterial assimilation of nitrate decreases the community isotope effects at the surface ocean.     

Late Pliocene to Early Quaternary extensional detachment in the La Paz–El Cabo area (Baja California Sur, Mexico): implications on the opening of the Gulf of California and the mechanics of oblique rifting

We demonstrate that Pliocene to Early Quaternary sedimentary formations in Baja California Sur (Mexico) were deposited syn-tectonically over a major detachment associated with the exhumation of Mesozoic crust. The detachment dips to the ENE and is associated with E–W stretching. This large extensional structure strikes almost parallel to the general trend of the Gulf of California and extension is oblique to the East-Pacific seafloor-spreading direction. Crustal-scale stretching in this area was still active after the beginning of seafloor spreading c.  3.6 Ma ago. The detachment is capped by Late Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial sediments the deposition of which seems to be partly syn-tectonic and controlled by minor stretching subparallel to the present-day North American–Pacific kinematic vector. We discuss the implications of our observations on strain partitioning during opening of the California Gulf as well as on the structure of the Gulf of California margin.     

Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations,and an update on the latest model simulations

We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed.     

Analyzing seismic imagery in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains to determine fluid nature and migration pathways: A case study from the Queen Charlotte Basin,offshore British Columbia

Combining time–amplitude and time–frequency information from seismic reflection data sets of different resolutions allows the analysis of anomalous reflections from very-shallow to great subsurface depths. Thus, it can enhance the imaging of subsurface features which have a frequency-dependent reflectivity such as gas. Analysing seismic data of different resolution in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains is a powerful method to determine hydrocarbon migration pathways from deep reservoirs to the seafloor. This interpretation method has been applied to the formerly-glaciated offshore Queen Charlotte Basin hosting several seafloor pockmarks and mounds associated with the leakage of underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. Low-frequency shadows observed in the time–frequency domain provide evidence of different resolutions that several anomalous reflection amplitudes may be attributed to the occurrence of gas. The seismic imagery shows that gas uses a fault to migrate from deep reservoirs included in Upper Mesozoic strata towards secondary reservoirs located along the fault plane into Neogene layers. Once gas reaches a porous cut-and-fill succession, migration changes from structurally- to stratigraphically-controlled before gas leaks through unconsolidated Quaternary sediments forming the shallow subsurface to eventually seep at the seafloor where pockmarks and carbonate mounds are formed.     

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.     

Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability

Interannual variability of subtropical sea-surface-height (SSH) anomalies, estimated by satellite and tide-gauge data, is investigated in relation to wintertime daily North-Atlantic weather regimes. Sea-level anomalies can be viewed as proxies for the subtropical gyre intensity because of the intrinsic baroclinic structure of the circulation. Our results show that the strongest correlation between SSH and weather regimes is found with the so-called Atlantic-Ridge (AR) while no significant values are obtained for the other regimes, including those related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), known as the primary actor of the Atlantic dynamics. Wintertime AR events are characterized by anticyclonic wind anomalies off Europe leading to a northward shift of the climatological wind-stress curl. The latter affects subtropical SSH annual variability by altered Sverdrup balance and ocean Rossby wave dynamics propagating westward from the African coast towards the Caribbean. The use of a simple linear planetary geostrophic model allows to quantify those effects and confirms the primary importance of the winter season to explain the largest part of SSH interannual variability in the Atlantic subtropical gyre. Our results open new perspectives in the comprehension of North-Atlantic Ocean variability emphasizing the role of AR as a driver of interannual variability at least of comparable importance to NAO.     

The danger of overvaluing methane’s influence on future climate change

Minimizing the future impacts of climate change requires reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) load in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions include many types of GHG’s as well as particulates such as black carbon and sulfate aerosols, each of which has a different effect on the atmosphere, and a different atmospheric lifetime. Several recent studies have advocated for the importance of short timescales when comparing the climate impact of different climate pollutants, placing a high relative value on short-lived pollutants, such as methane (CH₄) and black carbon (BC) versus carbon dioxide (CO₂). These studies have generated confusion over how to value changes in temperature that occur over short versus long timescales. We show the temperature changes that result from exchanging CO₂ for CH₄ using a variety of commonly suggested metrics to illustrate the trade-offs involved in potential carbon trading mechanisms that place a high value on CH₄ emissions. Reducing CH₄ emissions today would lead to a climate cooling of approximately ~0.5 °C, but this value will not change greatly if we delay reducing CH₄ emissions by years or decades. This is not true for CO₂, for which the climate is influenced by cumulative emissions. Any delay in reducing CO₂ emissions is likely to lead to higher cumulative emissions, and more warming. The exact warming resulting from this delay depends on the trajectory of future CO₂ emissions but using one business-as usual-projection we estimate an increase of 3/4 °C for every 15-year delay in CO₂ mitigation. Overvaluing the influence of CH₄ emissions on climate could easily result in our “locking” the earth into a warmer temperature trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short-term cooling effects of the CH₄ reductions, but then persists for many generations.