Climate change, reproductive performance and diet composition of marine birds in the southern California Current system, 1969–1997

We studied the effects of low-frequency climate change on the reproductive performance of 11 species of marine bird in the southern California Current system, 1969–1997. Reproductive performance of Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) and Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocrax auritus) in southern California demonstrated an increase in the 1970s and early 1980s, attributable to recovery from organochlorine contamination (primarily DDE). Brandt's Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) in central California was the only species to demonstrate a secular increase in performance through time, a pattern that remains unexplained. Ashy Storm-petrel (Oceanodroma homochroa) and Pelagic Cormorant (Phalacrocorax pelagicus) demonstrated curvilinear patterns of change, with decreasing reproductive performance in the past decade. All other species including Western Gull (Larus occidentalis), Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba), Xantus's Murrelet (Synthiloboramphus hypoleucus), Common Murre (Uria aalge), Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) and Rhinoceros Auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata) showed diminishing reproductive performance through time. Patterns of change for the murre and auklets were not significant, presumably because of a lack of reproductive variation for these species, which display a conservative breeding effort (i.e. single-egg clutches). Changes in the birds' abilities to provision young and maintain chick survival during May–July each year appeared most closely related to overall changes in reproductive performance. Dietary change indicated a decline in use of juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.) by marine birds in central California. There was also significant interannual variability in consumption of juvenile rockfish and the euphausiid Thysanoessa spinifera. Patterns of change in marine bird reproductive performance were generally concordant between southern and central California after considering the period of recovery for Brown Pelican and Double-crested Cormorant. The decline in reproductive performance and changes in diet composition do not appear directly related to the polarity reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in 1976/1977. Instead, reproductive performance and dietary characteristics indicate substantial change in the late 1980s, suggesting another regime-shift at that time.     

Development of a regional neural network for coastal water level predictions

This paper presents the development of a Regional Neural Network for Water Level (RNN_WL) predictions, with an application to the coastal inlets along the South Shore of Long Island, New York. Long-term water level data at coastal inlets are important for studying coastal hydrodynamics sediment transport. However, it is quite common that long-term water level observations may be not available, due to the high cost of field data monitoring. Fortunately, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a national network of water level monitoring stations distributed in regional scale that has been operating for several decades. Therefore, it is valuable and cost effective for a coastal engineering study to establish the relationship between water levels at a local station and a NOAA station in the region. Due to the changes of phase and amplitude of water levels over the regional coastal line, it is often difficult to obtain good linear regression relationship between water levels from two different stations. Using neural network offers an effective approach to correlate the non-linear input and output of water levels by recognizing the historic patterns between them. In this study, the RNN_WL model was developed to enable coastal engineers to predict long-term water levels in a coastal inlet, based on the input of data in a remote NOAA station in the region. The RNN_WL model was developed using a feed-forwards, back-propagation neural network structure with an optimized training algorithm. The RNN_WL model can be trained and verified using two independent data sets of hourly water levels.The RNN_WL model was tested in an application to Long Island South Shore. Located about 60–100 km away from the inlets there are two permanent long-term water level stations, which have been operated by NOAA since the1940s. The neural network model was trained using hourly data over a one-month period and validated for another one-month period. The model was then tested over year-long periods. Results indicate that, despite significant changes in the amplitudes and phases of the water levels over the regional study area, the RNN_WL model provides very good long-term predictions of both tidal and non-tidal water levels at the regional coastal inlets. In order to examine the effects of distance on the RNN_WL model performance, the model was also tested using water levels from other remote NOAA stations located at longer distances, which range from 234 km to 591 km away from the local station at the inlets. The satisfactory results indicate that the RNN_WL model is able to supplement long-term historical water level data at the coastal inlets based on the available data at remote NOAA stations in the coastal region.     

Enceladus' plume: Compositional evidence for a hot interior

The combined observations of Saturn's moon Enceladus by the Cassini CAPS, INMS and UVIS instruments detected water vapor geysers in which were present molecular nitrogen (N₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), propane (C₃H₈), acetylene (C₂H₂), and several other species, together with all of the decomposition products of water. We propose that the presence of N₂ in the plume indicates thermal decomposition of ammonia, and hence high temperatures in the interior of the moon (e.g., 500 to 800 K). Such an environment also appears to be suitable for the production of methane (CH₄) from carbon monoxide (CO), or carbon dioxide (CO₂). The presence of C₂H₂ and C₃H₈ strongly suggest that catalytic reactions took place within a very hot environment. The internal environment of Enceladus is inferred to be or have been favorable for aqueous, catalytic chemistry. This permits the synthesis of many complex organic compounds that could be detected in future Cassini observations.     

On the swimming strategies to escape a rip current: a mathematical approach

Rip currents represent significant hazards to swimmers all around the world. The danger arises when a misinformed swimmer uses an inadequate strategy to escape the rip, such as fighting the current directly. This can lead to fatigue, panic, and in some cases drowning. There exists a range of strategies put forward by experts (both lifeguards and scientists) to escape rip currents. However, these recommendations are based on a limited number of scientific studies and there is still much discrepancy surrounding the best strategy to escape a rip. Thus, here we present a simple, physics-based theoretical model aimed at assessing different escape strategies in terms of their associated ‘energetic cost’ (in work and power) for any given rip current and swimmer’s proficiency level. Many combinations of swimmers and rips are considered, including both idealised and a realistic rip current. Our quantitative results back the common knowledge that swimming against the rip (which is strongly discouraged by lifeguards) is almost universally the worst possible strategy, especially when compared against strategies favoured by experts, such as floating with the current before attempting to swim back to the shore. For a realistic rip, our results suggest that swimming directly against the rip can require several times more power from the swimmer than other strategies advised by lifeguards, thus lending further scientific support to experts’ recommendations. This study may help promote education around the dangers posed by rip currents and how best to address them.

     

Influence of redox conditions on the intensity of Mars crustal magnetic anomalies

We evaluate the relationship between the intensity of remanent magnetization and fO₂ in natural and synthetic Mars meteorites. The olivine‐phyric shergottite meteorite Yamato 980459 (Y‐980459) and a sulfur‐free synthetic analog (Y‐98*) of identical major element composition were analyzed to explore the rock magnetic and remanence properties of a basalt crystallized from a primitive melt, and to explore the role of magmatic and alteration environment fO₂ on Mars crustal anomalies. The reducing conditions under which Y‐980459 is estimated to have formed (QFM‐2.5; Shearer et al. 2006) were replicated during the synthesis of Y‐98*. Y‐980459 contains pyrrhotite and chromite. Chromite is the only magnetic phase in Y‐98*. The remanence‐carrying capacity of Y‐980459 is comparable to other shergottites that formed in the fO₂ range of QFM‐3 to QFM‐1. The remanence‐carrying capacity of these low fO₂ basalts is 1–2 orders of magnitude too weak to account for the intense crustal anomalies observed in Mars's southern cratered highlands. Moderately oxidizing conditions of >QFM‐1, which are more commonly observed in nakhlites and Noachian breccias, are key to generating either a primary igneous assemblage or secondary alteration assemblage capable of acquiring an intense remanent magnetization, regardless of the basalt character or thermal history. This suggests that if igneous rocks are responsible for the intensely magnetized crust, these oxidizing conditions must have existed in the magmatic plumbing systems of early Mars or must have existed in the crust during secondary processes that led to acquisition of a chemical remanent magnetization.     

Photochemistry of methane-water ices

We report a study on the broadband ultraviolet photolysis of methane-water ice mixtures, at low methane concentrations and temperatures relevant to the icy satellites of the outer Solar System. The photochemistry of these mixtures is dominated by the action of hydroxyl radicals on methane and the resulting products. This implies that, given sufficient exposure time, the methane will eventually be completely oxidized to carbon dioxide. The presence of methane inhibits the formation of hydrogen peroxide by serving as a trap for hydroxyl radicals. The distribution of photochemical products is broadly similar to that previously conducted using ion and electron sources, with some differences possibly attributable to the difference in radiation source. The results are applicable to a variety of icy bodies in the Solar System. On Enceladus, where methane mixed with water is measured in the plumes, methane in the surface ices is subject to oxidation and will eventually be converted to CO₂. The CH stretch feature detected in the VIMS spectra of the Enceladus surface ice suggests that methane is currently being supplied to the surface ice, likely from re-condensation of the plume gas.     

Dynamics of planets in retrograde mean motion resonance

In a previous paper (Gayon and Bois 2008a), we have shown the general efficiency of retrograde resonances for stabilizing compact planetary systems. Such retrograde resonances can be found when two-planets of a three-body planetary system are both in mean motion resonance and revolve in opposite directions. For a particular two-planet system, we have also obtained a new orbital fit involving such a counter-revolving configuration and consistent with the observational data. In the present paper, we analytically investigate the three-body problem in this particular case of retrograde resonances. We therefore define a new set of canonical variables allowing to express correctly the resonance angles and obtain the Hamiltonian of a system harboring planets revolving in opposite directions. The acquiring of an analytical “rail” may notably contribute to a deeper understanding of our numerical investigation and provides the major structures related to the stability properties. A comparison between our analytical and numerical results is also carried out.     

Environmental conservation and the production of new territories: the example of French départements

Very important initiatives have been taken and policies have been adopted in the European Union to protect areas of great importance for threatened species and habitats. Protected areas differ broadly in terms of category, natural conditions and administrative organisation, from international initiative such as Biosphere Reserves, European ones with Natura 2000 network until the institution of national and regional protected areas. In France, the administrative subdivisions known as “départements” were created with the French Revolution in the end of the eighteenth century; in 1985 an original and autonomous procedure to establish special protected areas, called “Sensitive Natural Spaces” (SNS) was devolved to them. The scope of this paper is to present an overview of these devolved powers which enable French départements to create protected areas and to levy a departmental tax on sensitive natural spaces (DTSNS). We statistically studied some parameters by multivariate methods in order to explain the choices of this policy by the départements. The huge variations in the way these powers are implemented prove the development of new environmental territories.