Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (_m, b and M_max) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (M_max, the seismic activity rate (_m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate _m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.     

Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998     

On the move: explaining migration patterns in Estonia during the transition period

This paper attempts to explore the migration patterns during the transition period in Estonia. A structuration approach was used to analyze data from the Estonian Statistical Office collected in 1997. Findings show that for migration between urban and rural areas, work-related reasons have been the most important motivating factor in urban growth during the transition period. Also considered are the family and education. In relation to sociodemographic structure of the population, men cite work, while women count family-related reasons, as the main motive for migrating. As to nonregistration, the most significant reason relates to issues of ownership. Because migrants are living in rented housing, it is not possible for them to register even if they desire to do so. Other reasons include "temporary", associated with study and work; "juridical", bureaucratic matters; and "multiple places of residence". This analysis, however, is incomplete because the attitudes and patterns of behavior have only partially or perfunctorily been related to the dramatic changes that have occurred in Estonian society. Proper statistical data are needed to help examine trends at a more disaggregated spatial level.     

The Dar al Gani meteorite field (Libyan Sahara): Geological setting,pairing of meteorites,and recovery density

Abstract— As of July 2001, 1238 Libyan meteorites have been reported. Most were found in two areas called Dar al Gani and Hamadah al Hamra. Dar al Gani is located on a plateau of marine carbonate rocks with marly components. Eight‐hundred and sixty‐nine meteorites between 6 g and 95 kg totalling 687 kg have been found here but the calculated mean recovery density is comparatively low with one meteorite on 6.5 km². Dar al Gani is a perfect site for the recognition and preservation of meteorites. The existence of meteorites is the result of a combination of specific geological and geomorphological conditions: there is a bright‐colored, old limestone plateau (<2 Ma), under arid weather conditions over long periods of time, with rapid elimination of surface water if present and low erosion rates. The preservation of meteorites is guaranteed through the absence of quartz sand on the plateau, strongly reducing wind erosion and a basic environment emerging from the carbonate ground retards rusting of metallic meteorite components. A supposed soil cover during pluvial times has probably protected older meteorites and led to a concentration of meteorites of different periods. An evaluation of Dar al Gani meteorites suggests the existence of at least 26 strewnfields and 26 meteorite pairs reducing the number of falls to, at most, 534. Shock and weathering grades as a tool for the recognition of pairings turned out to be problematic, as several strewnfields showed paired meteorites which had been classified to different shock and weathering grades.     

UBV photometry of BX andromedae

The UBV observations of a marginal contact system BX And obtained during 1987, 1989 and 1990 seasons at the Ankara University Observatory are presented. Based on all available light curves of the system we studied light curve variations, particularly at the extrema points. Time scale of the variations was found as short as a few cycles of the orbital revolution. Six new estimates of the minima times are given. Some indications are found that the system might be detached or semi-detached.     

Detection of optical circular polarization in the Herbig Ae star WW Vul

UBVRI observations of circular polarization in WW Vul are presented. A positive polarization of ～0.1% was detected with a signal-to-noise ratio from 3 to 5 in each of the bands and more than 5 when averaged over all five bands. This observed polarization roughly corresponds to a 1% circular polarization of the radiation scattered in a circumstellar disk, which is most likely attributable to the significant alignment of scattering nonspherical dust grains. Since grain alignment is possible only in a magnetic field, this result provides circumstantial evidence for the existence of a magnetic field in the circumstellar disk of WW Vul.     

Mineral resource appraisal and mineral deposits computer files in the Geological Survey of Canada

The Geological Survey of Canada (G.S.C.) has been involved in national appraisal of resources of certain commodities for nearly two decades beginning with a national study of iron deposits in 1955. In 1972, the first national appraisal to rapidly estimate total resources of Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Fe, Mo, and U in Canada was carried out largely by economic geologists. This exercise produced, among other things, a better definition of G.S. C. needs for building computer files in support of mineral deposits studies and mineral resource appraisal. Objectives of this paper are threefold: (1) to outline general methodology for the kind of mineral resource appraisal carried out by the G.S.C. in 1972; (2) to identify types of information required in that appraisal; and (3) to indicate types of information on mineral deposits for which it seems advantageous for the G.S.C. to construct computer files, and how these files relate to mineral resource appraisal. Methodology is fairly straightforward for appraisal of reserves (known, measured resources), but is much more problematic for appraisal of undiscovered resources. For the latter, G.S.C. economic geologists make use of two basic concepts: the deposit model, which is a generalized deposit type, distinguished by its geological attributes and host rock environment, and containing characteristic amounts of specified commodities; and the metallogenic region, which is a geographic area of more or less homogeneous geology deemed favorable for the presence of a particular deposit model. Background information required for appraisal of undiscovered resources includes the following: (a) data on distribution and geology of Canadian deposits and occurrences; (6) data on geology of important, foreign deposits; (c) knowledge of Canadian geology, commensurate with metallogenic requirements; (d) knowledge of current theories of ore-forming processes; and (e) appreciation of the amount, location, and effectiveness of past exploration in Canada. At present, only identity, location, and certain simple geological features of Canadian deposits are considered practical for a general computer file of mineral deposits. The fundamental activity of the G.S.C. in the sphere of mineral deposits is a number of broad studies on the geology of certain commodities in Canada carried out by economic geologists. Appraisal of mineral resources is based directly on the results of those studies, and is done by the same economic geologists. Construction of G.S.C. computer files is in response to needs defined by economic geologists, mainly in the context of their broad studies.This paper was presented at the International Geological Correlation Program (IGCP) Project 98 entitled Standards for Computer Applications in Resource Studies held at Loen, Norway, September 27–October 1, 1976.