高频GPS和强震仪数据在汶川地震参数快速确定中的初步应用

高频GPS可以实时获取地表位移数据,在地震学中有十分重要的现实应用,比如快速获取震中、震级、地震烈度甚至震源破裂过程.本文以汶川地震为例,首先利用近场7个GPS台站数据反演震中位置,由于高频GPS和测震学确认的震相不一致,两种震中结果相距约15.7 km.然后对高频GPS和强震动数据进行了比较分析,我们的统计结果表明,尽管由于工作原理不同,高频GPS数据中的地震动峰值与强震记录相比存在明显差异,但是高频GPS记录的PGA、PGV和PGD同样可以作为计算地震烈度的指标.进而,使用SMBLOC程序对强震记录进行事后的基线偏移校正,得到与实时高频GPS精度相当的地表位移序列.最后,采用移动平均窗口对这些位移数据作平滑,基于最速下降法和OKADA模型,对汶川地震断层破裂的过程进行了回溯性准实时反演.结果表明,汶川地震主断层由西南向东北方向破裂,以14∶28∶04为基准,在震后20 s提供初始震级M_W7.0,震后70 s震级稳定在M_W7.8,但断层仍在破裂,在震后159 s根据位移波形判断事件基本结束.研究表明,实时地表位移数据可以快速准确获取强震震级和破裂方向,从而使得高频GPS将对现有地震预警系统提供很好的补充.     

龙门山断裂带北段深部结构与反射地震特征

2008年5月12日汶川M_W7.9特大地震发生在龙门山断裂带,龙门山断裂带深部结构的复杂性制约了地震的破裂过程.通过对研究区区域地质、汶川地震前后采集的地震反射剖面等研究,在对龙门山北段汶川地震断裂带的深部结构和反射地震特征进行了分析的基础上,探讨了它对地表破裂过程的制约.研究结果表明,在地震剖面上,断裂带表现为能量破碎、联系性差;频率剖面上显示整体剖面频率在5~45 Hz,断裂带呈现频率低（15~26 Hz）等特征.龙门山北段映秀-北川断裂在10 km以上是一条倾向北西的高角度走滑兼逆冲性质的断裂,倾角50°~70°.它分割了西侧的轿子顶杂岩和东侧的唐王寨推覆体,错断了早期形成的逆冲岩片,从南到北总位移量由大变小.它高角度的几何形态约束了断裂以走滑为主兼逆冲分量的运动性质,降低了地表滑移量,影响了地震破裂过程以及余震沿断裂带两侧分布的特性.     

地缘政治环境中的情景分析：中国的视角

地缘政治环境具有不确定性,难以用简约化理论和量化手段来应对,故尝试运用情景分析法来阐释其在地缘政治环境中的适用性。情景分析法是一种对未来可能出现的多种状况进行描述的方法,具有应对地缘政治环境的不确定性和弥补简约化理论解释和预测能力不足的功能。基于地缘政治想象,地缘政治行为主体进行的地缘政治实践改变了既有地缘政治状态的结果,从而引起地缘政治环境的变化。以此为背景将情景分析法应用于分析中国周边地缘政治环境,预测可能会出现中美竞合、中美俄日印五强博弈、部分周边国家游离于大国间、朝越菲等弱国逞强等四种常规情景和领土争端引发领土战争、美国军事手段消除朝鲜核威慑、朝鲜半岛冲突引发大国对抗等三种突发情景以及“一带一路”倡议下的周边命运共同体情景。     

支持向量分类机LIBSVM方法识别天然地震、爆破与塌陷

对天然地震、爆破及塌陷的波形数据进行小波变换,并用小波转换系数提取香农熵特征,采用支持向量分类机LIBSVM多类模式识别方法对香农熵特征进行分类识别,识别率在80%~95%之间。结果表明,采用LIBSVM对波形特征进行分类的方法可以较好地识别天然地震、爆破与塌陷。     

Effect of freeze-thaw cycles on uniaxial mechanical properties of cohesive coarse-grained soils

Freeze-thaw cycles are closely related to the slope instability in high-altitude mountain regions. In this study, cohesive coarse-grained soils were collected from a high-altitude slope in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to study the effect of cyclic freeze-thaw on their uniaxial mechanical properties. The soil specimens were remolded with three dry densities and three moisture contents. Then, after performing a series of freeze-thaw tests in a closed system without water supply, the soil specimens were subjected to a uniaxial compression test. The results showed that the stress-strain curves of the tested soils mainly performed as strain-softening. The softening feature intensified with the increasing dry density but weakened with an increase in freeze-thaw cycles and moisture content. The uniaxial compressive strength, resilient modulus, residual strength and softening modulus decreased considerably with the increase of freeze-thaw cycles. After more than nine freeze-thaw cycles, these four parameters tended to be stable. These parameters increased with the increase of dry density and decreased with the increasing moisture content, except for the residual strength which did not exhibit any clear variation with an increase in moisture content. The residual strength, however, generally increased with an increase in dry density. The soil structural damage caused by frozen water expansion during the freeze-thaw is the major cause for the changes in mechanical behaviors of cohesive coarse-grained soils. With results in this study, the deterioration effect of freeze-thaw cycles on the mechanical properties of soils should be considered during the slope stability analysis in high-altitude mountain regions.     

山东地区近期垂直形变场精细特征分析

利用山东地区38个GNSS基准站2011～2016年连续6a的观测数据,对山东地区地壳垂向形变场特征进行系统分析。结果表明,山东地区地壳垂向形变具有明显的差异性,形变量最大的区域为山东西南部地区,形变速率约为-24.0mm/a;西北部地区形变速率较大,为-15.0mm/a;东南部以及沿海地区沉降速率较小,为-0.5～3.0mm/a;而在中部地区(泰山山脉)呈隆升趋势,形变速率为0.3～5.0mm/a。     

Spatio-temporal evolution of ecologically-sustainable land use in China's Loess Plateau and detection of its influencing factors

Ecological land(Eco-land) is a basic resource for human beings to survive, and eco-land use is a strategy, a way to manage the land resource. So, ecologically-sustainable land use is essential for human beings to survive. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of urban-rural eco-land using a new and innovative integration way based on eco-land change data in China's Loess Plateau(LP) prefecture level cities and explores factors of eco-land change. The spatial difference characteristic of eco-land among different level cities in the LP is that: small cities big cities middle cities. From 2009 to 2016, the eco-land in the LP from the perspective of urban-rural areas has changed significantly. Significant differences of urban-rural eco-land were identified among various urban growth types, and all the cities in the LP were further classified into four types based on eco-land change trend, with type A and B cities identified as the vital zone and major zone. Taking the eco-fragile region Loess Plateau(LP) as an example, our results demonstrated that the migrants to cities in LP could relieve ecological pressures and promote restoration of ecological vegetation. We have demonstrated that urbanization and the influence of government policy can be discerned through the quantification of the spatial-temporal change of eco-land and suggest that combining both urban and rural eco-land can support more effective land use decisions and provide theoretical basis for the practical application of urban planning, policy-making and sustainable development. What's more, governments should strive to population mobility and restore vegetation to sustain this fragile ecological environment.     

卫星激光测距系统的异常检测及其稳定性监测

针对卫星激光测距系统(SLR)的稳定性问题,该文分析了北京房山kHz地靶观测数据,根据系统延迟的统计信息构建异常辨识统计量,剔除异常数据。地靶有效数据在一个较小的范围内集中,变化幅度0.25ns左右;分析了单次系统延迟变化在0.2ns左右;通过ARMA时间序列分析方法,确定2018年北京房山SLR系统延迟的变化规律,建立SLR系统延迟变化的预报模型;最后,根据预报模型,对系统延迟进行短期预报,以检测SLR系统异常,实现对SLR系统运行稳定性监测的目的。     

Ciliate Uronema marinum is the causative agent of scuticociliatosis in farm raised turbot Scophthalmus maximus

To identify the pathogen that causes scuticociliatosis in farmed-raised turbot Scophthalmus maximus,we isolated a ciliate from the brain tissue of an infected turbot and identified it as Uronema marinum based on morphological and molecular evidence.We then infected the turbots in artificial laboratory settings with pure cultured U.marinum.The infected turbots showed syndromes similar to those observed in naturally infected ones.Furthermore,microscopic examination and PCR detection confirmed the presence of the ciliate in the tissues of those laboratory-infected turbots.To our best knowledge,this is the first report of scuticociliatosis caused by U.marinum in farm-raised turbot S.maximus in China.     

伪随机脉冲参数对BDS卫星定轨精度的影响分析

采用附加伪随机脉冲参数的动力学定轨方法对BDS卫星进行定轨,分别给出不同时间间隔的伪随机脉冲参数估计方案对BDS卫星常规状态、姿态转换状态以及进入地影状态时定轨精度的影响。结果表明,常规状态下,伪随机脉冲参数对GEO卫星定轨精度改善显著,相对较优的伪随机脉冲参数估计间隔与各类卫星运行周期吻合;对于姿态转换状态以及进入地影状态,6 h的伪随机脉冲参数估计间隔有助于提高相应卫星的定轨精度。