Challenges of climate change in tropical basins: vulnerability of eco-agrosystems and human populations

Climate change impacts are already happening through the world, and it is now clear that there is the need for an adaptive response from global institutions down to the local level. Reducing vulnerability to cope with climate variability might be more challenging in tropical countries than in North America or Europe. The ten papers of this special issue were presented during the Adaptclim conference that was held by the Sinergia Project, the CLARIS LPB project, and the GeoData Institute in Asunción, Paraguay, in 2010. All papers, except one regarding the Brahmaputra Basin in South Asia, present studies from South America. These studies are first contextualized geographically and then are related one to another by a simplified vulnerability concept linking climate stress to sensitivity and adaptive capacity of natural and human systems. One half of the papers focus on actual or future climate change and the present-day causes of the vulnerability of natural and agrosystems. Droughts are and will be the main source of stress for agriculture in South America. Increasing fragmentation of forest of the center of this continent is aggravating their vulnerability to dry spells. Another half of the studies of this special issue deal with the adaptive capacity human populations to system perturbations produced or enhanced by climate change. The studies point out inclusion of traditional knowledge and involvement of local actors in their own vulnerability assessment to increase adaptive capacity. These elements of climate justice, giving voice to those less responsible for carbon emissions but bearing their most severe consequences, allow the particular needs of a community to be considered and can direct adaptation policy toward preserving or rebuilding their specific capabilities under threat from climate change. The special issue also made clear that a basin analysis of the climate change problem could provide information, results, and methods more readily of use for the local population and decision makers.     

On the improvements of the single point positioning accuracy with Locata technology

This work focuses on the performances of Locata technology in single point positioning using different firmware versions (v2.0 and v4.2). The main difference is that the Locata transmitters with firmware v2.0 are single frequency, whereas in the v4.2, they are dual frequency. The performance of the different firmware versions has been measured in different environments including an urban canyon-like environment and a more open environment on the roof of the Nottingham Geospatial Building. The results obtained with firmware v4.2 show that with more available signals, cycle slips can be more easily detected, together with the improvement of the detection of multipath fading on the received signal. As a result, the noise level on the carrier phase measurements recorded with firmware v4.2 is equal on average to a third of the level of noise on the measurements recorded with firmware v2.0. In addition, with either firmware, the accuracy of the position is at the sub-centimeter level on the East and North coordinates. The Up coordinate accuracy is generally less accurate and more sensitive to the geometry of the network in our experiments. We then show the importance of the geometry of the Locata network on the accuracy of Locata positioning system through the demonstration of the relationship between the dilution of precision value and the confidence ellipse. We also demonstrate that the model of the noise on the Locata coordinates is a white Gaussian noise with the help of the autocorrelation function. To some extent, this technique can help to detect whether the Wi-Fi technology is interfering with the Locata technology and degrades the positioning accuracy.     

Tropical variability and stratospheric equatorial waves in the IPSLCM5 model

The atmospheric variability in the equatorial regions is analysed in the Earth System Model pre-industrial simulation done at IPSL in the framework of CMIP5. We find that the model has an interannual variability of about the right amplitude and temporal scale, when compared to the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but that is too confined to the western Pacific. At the intra-seasonal periods, the model variability lacks of large-scale organisation, and only produces one characteristic Madden-Julian Oscillation every 10 winters typically. At shorter time-scales and in the troposphere, the model has Rossby and Kelvin Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEWs), but underestimates the Kelvin CCEWs signal on OLR. In the model stratosphere, a composite analysis shows that the Temperature and velocities fluctuations due to the Kelvin waves are quite realistic. In the model nevertheless, the stratospheric waves are less related to the convection than in the observations, suggesting that their forcing by the midlatitudes plays a larger role. Still in the model, the Kelvin waves are not predominantly occurring during the life cycle of the tropospheric Kelvin CCEWs, a behaviour that we find to be dominant in the observations. The composite analysis is also used to illustrate how the waves modify the zonal mean-flow, and to show that the model Kelvin waves are too weak in this respect. This illustrates how a model can have a reasonable Kelvin waves signal on the velocities and temperature, but can at the same time underestimate their amplitude to modify the mean flow. We also use this very long simulation to establish that in the model, the stratospheric equatorial waves are significantly affected by ENSO, hence supporting the idea that the ENSO can have an influence on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation.     

Control of deep convection by sub-cloud lifting processes: the ALP closure in the LMDZ5B general circulation model

Recently, a new conceptual framework for deep convection scheme triggering and closure has been developed and implemented in the LMDZ5B general circulation model, based on the idea that deep convection is controlled by sub-cloud lifting processes. Such processes include boundary-layer thermals and evaporatively-driven cold pools (wakes), which provide an available lifting energy that is compared to the convective inhibition to trigger deep convection, and an available lifting power (ALP) at cloud base, which is used to compute the convective mass flux assuming the updraft vertical velocity at the level of free convection. While the ALP closure was shown to delay the local hour of maximum precipitation over land in better agreement with observations, it results in an underestimation of the convection intensity over the tropical ocean both in the 1D and 3D configurations of the model. The specification of the updraft vertical velocity at the level of free convection appears to be a key aspect of the closure formulation, as it is weaker over tropical ocean than over land and weaker in moist mid-latitudes than semi-arid regions. We propose a formulation making this velocity increase with the level of free convection, so that the ALP closure is adapted to various environments. Cloud-resolving model simulations of observed oceanic and continental case studies are used to evaluate the representation of lifting processes and test the assumptions at the basis of the ALP closure formulation. Results favor closures based on the lifting power of sub-grid sub-cloud processes rather than those involving quasi-equilibrium with the large-scale environment. The new version of the model including boundary-layer thermals and cold pools coupled together with the deep convection scheme via the ALP closure significantly improves the representation of various observed case studies in 1D mode. It also substantially modifies precipitation patterns in the full 3D version of the model, including seasonal means, diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability.     

Beyond water, beyond boundaries: spaces of water management in the Krishna river basin, South India

As demand and competition for water resources increase, the river basin has become the primary unit for water management and planning. While appealing in principle, practical implementation of river basin management and allocation has often been problematic. This paper examines the case of the Krishna basin in South India. It highlights that conflicts over basin water are embedded in a broad reality of planning and development where multiple scales of decisionmaking and non-water issues are at play. While this defines the river basin as a disputed "space of dependence", the river basin has yet to acquire a social reality. It is not yet a "space of engagement" in and for which multiple actors take actions. This explains the endurance of an interstate dispute over the sharing of the Krishna waters and sets limits to what can be achieved through further basin water allocation and adjudication mechanisms – tribunals – that are too narrowly defined. There is a need to extend the domain of negotiation from that of a single river basin to multiple scales and to non-water sectors. Institutional arrangements for basin management need to internalise the political spaces of the Indian polity: the states and the panchayats. This re-scaling process is more likely to shape the river basin as a space of engagement in which partial agreements can be iteratively renegotiated, and constitute a promising alternative to the current interstate stalemate.     

Salt crystallization in pores: quantification and estimation of damage

The objective of this study is to understand and predict the alteration of porous rock by crystallization of salts. Samples of different rocks have been tested according to the EN 12370 standard test. Two parameters are proposed to evaluate the alteration of a rock during these tests. The alteration index AI represents the cycle in which the first damages occur. The alteration velocity AV represents the alteration rate at the end of the experiment, when the decay has become regular. These parameters can be estimated with the help of a microstructural study of the rocks. The most relevant intrinsic parameters of the stones for this estimation are capillary coefficient, evaporation coefficient, tensile strength and P-waves velocity. An evaluation of the alteration pattern is also proposed depending on the eventual heterogeneities and anisotropies of the rocks. The influence of the dimension and shape of the samples is also discussed.     

First investigations on the quaternary system Na2O-K2O-CaO-SiO2: synthesis and crystal structure of the mixed alkali calcium silicate K1.08Na0.92Ca6Si4O15

Mineralogy and Petrology - In the course of an exploratory study on the quaternary system Na2O-K2O-CaO-SiO2 single crystals of the first anhydrous sodium potassium calcium silicate have been...     

Ancient harbors and Holocene morphogenesis of the Ras Ibn Hani peninsula (Syria)

Ras Ibn Hani peninsula, a wave-dominated tombolo (800 × 1000 m) on the Syrian coast, provides evidence for significant Holocene changes that can be linked to geological inheritance, rising post-glacial sea level, sediment supply and human impacts. Initial development of Ras Ibn Hani's coastal system began ~ 8000 years ago when shallow marine environments formed in a context of rising post-glacial sea level. Following relative sea-level stabilization ~ 6000 cal yr BP, beach facies trace the gradual formation of a wave-dominated sandbank fronted by a ~ 2300 × ~ 500 m palaeo-island whose environmental potentiality was attractive to Bronze Age societies. A particularly rapid phase of tombolo accretion is observed after ~ 3500 cal yr BP characterised by a two- to fourfold increase in sedimentation rates. This is consistent with (i) a pulse in sediment supply probably driven by Bronze Age/Iron Age soil erosion in local catchments, and (ii) positive feedback mechanisms linked to regionally attested neotectonics. Archaeological remains and radiocarbon datings confirm that the subaerial tombolo was probably in place by the Late Bronze Age. These data fit tightly with other eastern Mediterranean tombolo systems suggesting that there is a great deal of predictability to their geology and stratigraphy at the regional scale.     

First Imaging of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Heliosphere Viewed from Outside the Sun – Earth Line

We show for the first time images of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) viewed using the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instrument aboard the NASA STEREO spacecraft. The HI instruments are wide-angle imaging systems designed to detect CMEs in the heliosphere, in particular, for the first time, observing the propagation of such events along the Sun – Earth line, that is, those directed towards Earth. At the time of writing the STEREO spacecraft are still close to the Earth and the full advantage of the HI dual-imaging has yet to be realised. However, even these early results show that despite severe technical challenges in their design and implementation, the HI instruments can successfully detect CMEs in the heliosphere, and this is an extremely important milestone for CME research. For the principal event being analysed here we demonstrate an ability to track a CME from the corona to over 40 degrees. The time – altitude history shows a constant speed of ascent over at least the first 50 solar radii and some evidence for deceleration at distances of over 20 degrees. Comparisons of associated coronagraph data and the HI images show that the basic structure of the CME remains clearly intact as it propagates from the corona into the heliosphere. Extracting the CME signal requires a consideration of the F-coronal intensity distribution, which can be identified from the HI data. Thus we present the preliminary results on this measured F-coronal intensity and compare these to the modelled F-corona of Koutchmy and Lamy (IAU Colloq. 85, 63, 1985). This analysis demonstrates that CME material some two orders of magnitude weaker than the F-corona can be detected; a specific example at 40 solar radii revealed CME intensities as low as 1.7×10⁻¹⁴ of the solar brightness. These observations herald a new era in CME research as we extend our capability for tracking, in particular, Earth-directed CMEs into the heliosphere.     

利用卫星影像获得汶川地震之同震地表变形来探讨其断层几何模型(英文)

On 12th May 2008, a MW7.9 earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault in the mountains to the west of Sichuan Province, which shook many Asian cities and killed at least 69 000 people.