Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database

In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.     

One-step solution to local tie vector determination at co-located GNSS/VLBI sites

The local tie vector, which connects the different space geodetic techniques at a co-located site, plays an important role in the realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). This paper presents a new method to determine the tie vector between the GNSS and very long baseline interferometry tracking points. The parameters of the local tie vector and the axes offsets are introduced into constraint equations. The parameters are then resolved using the 3D constrained least squares adjustment. With the surveying data collected at two different sites (Kunming and Urumqi) in China, the proposed method can precisely determine the local tie vectors in a geocentric frame. The root mean square error (RMSE) is (1.2, 2.3 and 1.5 mm) and (1.0, 1.5 and 1.4 mm) for the three coordinate components at the sites in Kunming and Urumqi, respectively. The offset between the primary and secondary axes of the VLBI telescopes is estimated to be 7.5 mm in Kunming’s site and 4.0 mm in Urumqi’s site, and the corresponding RMSE is 1.8 mm and 2.0 mm for the two sites, respectively.     

Seismic motion in urban sites consisting of blocks in welded contact with a soft layer overlying a hard half-space

We address the problem of the response to a seismic wave of an urban site consisting of   N _b   blocks overlying a soft layer underlain by a hard substratum. The results of a theoretical analysis, appealing to a space–frequency mode-matching (MM) technique, are compared to those obtained by a space–time finite-element (FE) technique. The two methods are shown to give rise to the same prediction of the seismic response for   N _b = 1  , 2 and 40 blocks. The mechanism of the interaction between blocks and the ground, as well as that of the mutual interaction between blocks, are studied. It is shown, in the first part of this paper, that the presence of a small number of blocks modifies the seismic disturbance in a manner which evokes qualitatively, but not quantitatively, what was observed during the 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico City. Anomalous earthquake response at a much greater level, in terms of duration, peak and cumulative amplitude of motion, is shown, by a theoretical and numerical analysis in the second part of this paper, to be induced by the presence of a large (≥10) number of identical equi-spaced blocks that are present in certain districts of many cities.     

Tier-based approaches for landslide susceptibility assessment in Europe

In the framework of the European Soil Thematic Strategy and the associated proposal of a Framework Directive on the protection and sustainable use of soil, landslides were recognised as a soil threat requiring specific strategies for priority area identification, spatial hazard assessment and management. This contribution outlines the general specifications for nested, Tier-based geographical landslide zonings at small spatial scales to identify priority areas susceptible to landslides (Tier 1) and to perform quantitative susceptibility evaluations within these (Tier 2). A heuristic, synoptic-scale Tier 1 assessment exploiting a reduced set of geoenvironmental factors derived from common pan-European data sources is proposed for the European Union and adjacent countries. Evaluation of the susceptibility estimate with national-level landslide inventory data suggests that a zonation of Europe according to, e.g. morphology and climate, and performing separate susceptibility assessments per zone could give more reliable results. To improve the Tier 1 assessment, a geomorphological terrain zoning and landslide typology differentiation are then applied for France. A multivariate landslide susceptibility assessment using additional information on landslide conditioning and triggering factors, together with a historical catalogue of landslides, is proposed for Tier 2 analysis. An approach is tested for priority areas in Italy using small administrative mapping units, allowing for relating socioeconomic census data with landslide susceptibility, which is mandatory for decision making regarding the adoption of landslide prevention and mitigation measures. The paper concludes with recommendations on further work to harmonise European landslide susceptibility assessments in the context of the European Soil Thematic Strategy.     

Evolution of the late Pleistocene Mojanda–Fuya Fuya volcanic complex (Ecuador), by progressive adakitic involvement in mantle magma sources

The Mojanda–Fuya Fuya Volcanic Complex consists of two nearby volcanoes, Mojanda and Fuya Fuya. The older one, Mojanda volcano (0.6 to 0.2 Ma), was first constructed by andesites and high-silica andesites forming a large stratovolcano (Lower Mojanda). This edifice was capped by a basaltic andesite and andesitic cone (Upper Mojanda), which collapsed later to form a 3-km-wide summit caldera, after large phreatomagmatic eruptions. The Lower Fuya Fuya edifice was constructed by the extrusion of viscous Si-rich andesitic lavas and dacitic domes, and the emission of a thick sequence of pyroclastic-flow and fallout deposits which include two voluminous rhyolitic layers. An intermediate construction phase at Fuya Fuya is represented by a mainly effusive cone, andesitic in composition (San Bartolo edifice), the construction of which was interrupted by a major sector collapse in the Late Pleistocene. Finally, a complex of thick siliceous lavas and domes was emplaced within the avalanche amphitheatre, forming the Upper Fuya Fuya volcanic centre. This paper shows that the general evolution from an effusive to an explosive eruptive style is related to a progressive adakitic contribution to the magma source. Although all the rocks of the complex are included in the medium-K field of continental arcs, the Fuya Fuya suite (61–75 wt.% SiO₂) shows depletion in Y and HREE and high Sr/Y and La/Yb values, compared to the less silicic Mojanda suite (55–66.5 wt.% SiO₂). The Mojanda calc-alkaline suite was generated by partial melting of an adakite-metasomatised mantle source that left a residue with 2% garnet, followed by fractional crystallization of dominant plagioclase + pyroxene + olivine at shallow, intra-crustal depths. For Fuya Fuya, geochemical and mineralogical data suggest either (1) partial melting of a similar metasomatised mantle with more garnet in the residue (4%), followed by fractional crystallization involving plagioclase, amphibole and pyroxene, or (2) mixing of mafic mantle-derived magma from the Mojanda suite and slab melts, followed by the same fractional crystallization process.     

Natural deformation related to serpentinisation of an ultramafic inclusion within a continental shear zone: The key role of fluids

The role of fluids in the deformation of continental serpentinites is investigated from structural, microstructural and petrographic analyses applied to a km-scale porphyroclast mantled in a viscous matrix of amphibolites. The clast is sited within a shear zone of the Palaeozoic Maures massif, France. Syntectonic fluid–rock interactions occurred from km to mm scales, at first on the clast borders (along the main rheological boundaries) then within the clast. They are accommodated macroscopically by slickenfibers faults and microscopically by shear microcracks within crack-seal veins, typifying an intermediate, brittle–ductile behaviour of serpentinites. Three main stages of deformation–serpentinisation processes occurred in relation with the left-lateral movement of the hosted shear zone. They developed under metamorphic conditions evolving from amphibolites to green-schists facies conditions ( 400 MPa/550 °C to  200 MPa/< 300 °C), as inferred from the surrounding sheared amphibolites. Deformation and serpentinisation increase through time although fluid pressure decreases. If the shape of the inclusion and its orientation relative to the shear zone mainly controlled the deformation pattern though time (P then R' shears), fluid pressure is required for starting deformation–serpentinisation processes along inherited anisotropy planes. Whatever the origin of fluids, they play a key role all along the deformation processes by influencing stress states within the shear zone at the onset of deformation and by changing at various scales and through time behaviour of the rock, depending of the intensity of serpentinisation and the rate of deformation.     

Storm Surges in the Strait of Georgia Simulated with a Regional Model

The Strait of Georgia is a large, semi-enclosed body of water between Vancouver Island and the mainland of British Columbia connected to the Pacific Ocean via Juan de Fuca Strait at the south and Johnstone Strait at the north. During the winter months, coastal communities along the Strait of Georgia are at risk of flooding caused by storm surges, a natural hazard that can occur when a strong storm coincides with high tide. This investigation produces storm surge hindcasts using a three-dimensional numerical ocean model for the Strait of Georgia and the surrounding bodies of water (Juan de Fuca Strait, Puget Sound, and Johnstone Strait) collectively known as the Salish Sea. The numerical model employs the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean architecture in a regional configuration. The model is evaluated through comparisons of tidal elevation harmonics and storm surge with observations. Important forcing factors contributing to storm surges are assessed. It is shown that surges entering the domain from the Pacific Ocean make the most significant contribution to surge amplitude within the Strait of Georgia. Comparisons between simulations and high-resolution and low-resolution atmospheric forcing further emphasize that remote forcing is the dominant factor in surge amplitudes in this region. In addition, local wind patterns caused a slight increase in surge amplitude on the mainland side of the Strait of Georgia compared with Vancouver Island coastal areas during a major wind storm on 15 December 2006. Generally, surge amplitudes are found to be greater within the Strait of Georgia than in Juan de Fuca Strait.     

An early Palaeozoic supra-subduction lithosphere in the Variscides: new evidence from the Maures massif

Petrographic and geochemical studies of peridotites and melagabbros from the Maures massif (SE France) provide new constraints on the Early Palaeozoic evolution of the continental lithosphere in Western Europe. Peridotites occur as lenses along a unit rooted in the main Variscan suture zone. They are dominantly spinel peridotites and minor garnet–spinel peridotites. Spinel peridotites represent both residual mantle and ultramafic cumulates. Mantle-related dunites and harzburgites display high temperature textures, with olivine (Mg#_0.90), orthopyroxene (Mg#_0.90) and spinel (TiO₂ < 0.2%; Cr#_0.64–0.83) compositions typical of fore-arc upper mantle. Ultramafic cumulates are dunite adcumulates, harzburgite heteradcumulates and mesocumulates, melagabbro heteradcumulates and amphibole peridotites, with olivine (Mg#_0.85–0.89), orthopyroxene (Mg#_0.86–0.89) and Cr-spinel (TiO₂ = 0.5–3.3%; Cr#_0.7–0.98) compositions typical of ultramafic cumulates. Cr-spinel compositions of both spinel peridotite types suggest their genesis in a supra-subduction zone lithosphere. Core to rim zoning in spinel is related to the incomplete influence of regional metamorphism and serpentinisation. The covariation of major and minor elements with Al₂O₃ for cumulates is consistent with igneous processes involving crystal accumulation. Both mantle and cumulate dunites and harzburgites have U-shaped REE patterns and extremely low trace element contents, similar to peridotites from modern fore-arc peridotites (South Atlantic) and from ophiolites related to supra-subduction zones (Semail, Cyclops, Pindos, Troodos). Melagabbros also have U-shaped REE patterns similar to xenoliths from the Philippine island arc, but also similar to intrusive ultramafic cumulates from the Semail nappe of Oman related to a proto-subduction setting. A wehrlite has a REE pattern similar to that of amphibole peridotites reflecting metasomatism of clinopyroxene-bearing peridotites due to subduction-related fluids. The Maures spinel peridotites and melagabbros are therefore interpreted as the lowermost parts of a crustal sequence and minor residual mantle of lithosphere generated in a supra-subduction zone during Early Palaeozoic time. Garnet–spinel peridotites are chemically close to melagabbros, but have recorded high pressure metamorphism before their retrogression similar to spinel peridotites into amphibolites to greenschists facies metamorphism. They indicate burial to mantle depths of the margin of the supra-subduction lithosphere during the Early Palaeozoic continental subduction. Both peridotite types were exhumed during the Upper Palaeozoic continental collision. Comparable observations from other Variscan-related peridotites, in particular of the Speik complex of the Autroalpine basement, and a common age for the subduction stage allow extension of these regional conclusions to a broad area sharing the Cambrian suture zone, extending from the Ossa-Morena to the Bohemian massif.