Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

Water Resources - There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and...     

On the relationship between Indian monsoon withdrawal and Iran’s fall precipitation onset

Indian monsoon is the most prominent of the world’s monsoon systems which primarily affects synoptic patterns of India and adjacent countries such as Iran in interaction with large-scale weather systems. In this article, the relationship between the withdrawal date of the Indian monsoon and the onset of fall precipitation in Iran has been studied. Data included annual time series of withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon prepared by the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology, and time series of the first date of 25 mm accumulated precipitation over Iran’s synoptic weather stations in a 10-day period which is the basis for the cultivation date. Both time series were considered in Julian calendar with the starting date on August 1. The studied period is 1960–2014 which covers 55 years of data from 36 meteorological stations in Iran. By classifying the withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon in three stages of late, normal, and early withdrawals, its relation with the onset of fall precipitation in western, southwestern, southern, eastern, central, and northern regions of Iran was studied. Results demonstrated that in four out of the six mentioned regions, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon postpones the onset of fall precipitation over Iran. No significant relation was found between the onset of fall precipitation in central region of Iran and the monsoon’s withdrawal date. In the western, southwestern, southern, and eastern regions of Iran, the late monsoon delays the onset of fall’s precipitation; while in the south Caspian Sea coastal area, it causes the early onset of autumnal precipitation. The lag in onset of fall precipitation in Iran which is coordinated with the late withdrawal of monsoon is accompanied with prolonged subtropical high settling over Iran’s plateau that prevents the southward movement of polar jet frontal systems. Such conditions enhance northerly wind currents over the Caspian Sea which, in turn, increase the precipitation in Caspian coastal provinces, which has a different behavior from the overall response of Iran’s climate to the late withdrawal of monsoon. In the phase of early monsoon withdrawal, the subtropical jet is located at the 200 hPa level in 32.5° north latitude; compared with the late withdrawal date, it shows a 2° southward movement. Additionally, the 500 hPa trough is also located in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the MSL pressure anomaly is between ? 4 to ? 7 hPa. The Mediterranean trough in the late withdrawal phase is located in its central zones. It seems that the lack of significant correlation between late withdrawal date of Indian monsoon and late fall’s precipitation onset in the central region of Iran depends on three reasons:1. Lack of adequate weather stations in central region of Iran.2. Precipitation standard deviations over arid and warm regions are high.3. Central flat region of Iran without any source of humidity is located to the lee side of Zagros mountain range. So intensification or development of frontal systems is almost prohibited over there.     

Calculation of fracture parameters and their effect on porosity and permeability using image logs and petrophysical data in carbonate Asmari reservoir,SW Iran

Evaluation of fractures and their parameters, such as aperture and density, is necessary in the optimization of oil production and field development. The purpose of this study is the calculation of fracture parameters in the Asmari reservoir using two electrical image logs (FMI, EMI), and the determination of fracture parameters’ effect on the porosity and permeability using thin sections and velocity deviation log (VDL). The results indicate that production in the Asmari reservoir is a combination of fractures and rock matrix. Fracture aperture (VAH) and fracture porosity (VPA) are only measurable with core and image logs directly. However, regarding core limitations, the image log has been recognized as the best method for fracture parameter determination due to their high resolution (2.5 mm). In this study, VDL log and thin sections have been used as auxiliary methods which may be available in all wells. The VDL log provides a tool to obtain downhole information about the predominant pore type in carbonates. Results indicate that between fracture parameters, VAH is considered as the most important parameter for determining permeability. For well No. 3, VAH ranges from minimum 51 × 10^?5 mm to maximum 0. 047 mm and VPA changes from min 10^?5% to maximum 0.02056%. For well No. 6, VAH varies from 5 × 10^?4 to 0.0695 mm and VPA varies from 10^?5 to 0.015%. Therefore, due to high fracture density and fracture aperture, it seems that most of effective porosity originates from fractures especially in well No. 3. However, VDL for well No. 6 indicates that intercrystalline and vuggy porosity are the dominant porosity. This result may be an indication for fracture set diversity in the two studied wells. While in well No. 3, they related to the folding and active faults, in well No. 6 they are only of folding type. Furthermore, results indicate the high capability for both of EMI and FMI image logs for calculation of fracture and vug parameters in the carbonate reservoirs.