A population health model for integrated assessment models

In this paper we present the initial results from a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios to include population health status. Our initial hypothesis was that some climatic variable, particularly temperature, would have a significant impact on health outcomes. After experiments – using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data on Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with disability (YLD) both by WHO region and by five degree latitude band as outcome variables – failed, we settled on life expectancy (LE) as the best measure of health status. We discovered that there is a solid relationship between LE and the GBD data from our first experiments, allowing us to extend the results from the LE model. The LE model used cross section data on LE for 91 countries and included temperature, per capita income, access to clean water and sanitation, literacy, simple medical attention, nutrition, per capita medical expenditure, electricity use per capita, and automobiles per capita as independent variables. While all were individually associated with LE, our model of choice included literacy, access to clean water and sanitation, simple medical attention, an indictor variable for Sub-Saharan Africa and purchasing-power parity per capita income. Note that neither temperature nor calories enter into this model. The fit between life expectancy, as predicted by this model, and actual life expectancy was quite good (R ² =0.90), except for Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar; these countries accounted for one half of the unexplained variation in the model. The LE model was then used to develop trajectories of life expectancy in India for the four IPCC SRES storylines, where values for the independent variables were extrapolated based on the story line content. YLL and YLD estimates were created using the current cross relationship of these outcomes to LE. Given the lack of a general role for climate in our LE model, future work is planned to explore how to add detailed climate related impacts, to explore alternative nutritional variables, as well as extend the data set to allow a cross-section time-series approach.     

Spectral Irradiance and Phytoplankton Community Composition in a Blackwater-Dominated Estuary,Winyah Bay,South Carolina,USA

We investigated spatial and temporal relationships between spectral irradiance and phytoplankton community composition in the blackwater-influenced estuary Winyah Bay, South Carolina. Upstream, high concentrations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorbed blue wavelengths, resulting in a predominantly red light field. Green light prevailed downstream near the lower-CDOM coastal ocean, and phytoplankton community composition was distinct from upstream and mid-estuarine communities. Diatoms were abundant throughout the estuary in January, August, and October, cryptophytes dominated in July, and chlorophytes were abundant in December 2006. Only diatoms and chlorophytes showed significant covariation with the spectral attenuation coefficient (k(λ)): Chlorophytes showed positive relationships with k(442) (blue light) while diatoms were negatively correlated with k(442) and k(490) (violet to blue). Phytoplankton community composition in Winyah Bay appears to be driven by strong horizontal flow rather than gradients in spectral irradiance, but results indicate that water color is likely to play a greater role in blackwater-influenced estuaries with longer residence times.     

Evolution of undercut slopes on abandoned incised meanders in the Eastern Highland Rim of Tennessee, USA

Field surveys, location-for-time reasoning, and computer modeling were used to study the evolution of slopes on valley walls of abandoned bedrock meanders on the Eastern Highland Rim, Tennessee. Hillslopes on the undercut slopes of cutoff incised meanders were ordered as to relative age by the height of their meander floors above the modern stream level. The assumption is that the undercut slope is actively eroded by the stream until abandonment of the meander, at which time the slope begins to evolve to a different form. More-advanced stages of evolution occur on walls of higher meanders that were abandoned earlier. The most rapid change in this initial form is the elimination of a free face, which occurs soon after the meander is abandoned. In addition, the hillslopes associated with even the lowest (youngest) cutoff meanders show somewhat gentler overall gradients than the actively undercut slopes. Hillslopes associated with meanders 3 to about 20 m above modern stream level maintain straight segments with angles showing only a slight decrease from the 36–38° associated with the lowest cutoffs; overall angles decrease, however, as the straight segment becomes shorter. The oldest slopes, those on cutoffs 30 m or greater above modern stream level, have developed into convex–concave slopes with maximum slopes of 15°.A hillslope evolution model based on previously published algorithms was used to simulate the transition of actively undercut hillslopes into hillslopes on abandoned meanders. Hillslope modeling is particularly useful in this setting. If the valley incision rate is known, an age can be estimated for the cutoff and hence for the hillslope. Alternatively, if hillslope process rates are known, a model age obtained for the hillslope can be used to estimate an incision rate. Even where both incision rates and hillslope process rates are poorly constrained, as in the present setting, modeling allows assumptions about specific rates to be evaluated by determining their implications for other rates. For example, for three cutoff meanders along one stream, best-fit criteria were used to select process rates for the model. Model ages of hillslopes were then obtained and compared with those calculated from a valley-incision rate measured elsewhere in the same physiographic province. For two of the hillslopes, model ages were found to be much younger than those calculated from the incision rate. In order to make the two ages agree, unreasonably low process rates had to be used in the model, thus implying that the incision rate probably underestimates the actual incision rate in this valley.Experimentation with heights of initial profiles, again using best-fit criteria, suggests that since abandonment of the highest cutoff, the plateau has been downwasting at a rate about one-fourth that of the valley incision rate, a finding in agreement with published rates of chemical denudation in the area.     

Monitored Natural Attenuation of Contaminants in the Subsurface: Applications

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the application of passive technologies to reduce or remove contaminants from the subsurface environment including soil and ground water. In most cases, the impetus for this interest lies in a perceived savings compared with more traditional remedial alternatives. In a few cases, the infrastructure at contaminated sites, such as buildings, paved areas, and utilities, makes the use of conventional remedial measures difficult and expensive.
To demonstrate that natural processes are effective in reaching established goals, it is necessary to determine that transformation processes are taking place at a rate that is protective of human health and the environment and that these processes will continue for an acceptable period of time. The basic conditions that must be present to confirm natural attenuation processes arc taking place are discussed along with the behavior of contaminated plumes, monitoring requirements, data analysis, rates of degradation, and mathematical modeling.     

Phase relations between Ca3Fe 2 3 +Si3O12-Fe 3 2 +Fe 2 3 +Si3O12 garnet and CaFeSi2O6-Fe2Si2O6 pyroxene solid solutions

Editorial responsibility: J. Hoefs     

The geochemistry of the Dunedin Volcano: Strontium isotope chemistry

The isotopic composition of strontium has been determined for samples from the alkaline lavas of the Dunedin Volcano covering the range basalt, basanite, intermediate compositions, phonolite and quartz normative trachyte. The basaltic, intermediate and phonolitic rocks appear to be comagmatic and have similar low initial Sr⁸⁷/Sr⁸⁶ ratios around 0.7030, comparable with those of other alkaline provinces. The quartz normative trachytes have initial ratios significantly higher than those of the other rocks (0.7040) although their age is comparable. Contamination by sea water or crustal material could explain the higher initial ratios of the trachytes but it does not account for important features of their chemistry. It is suggested that the trachytes formed by partial melting involving an alkali feldspar-rich portion of older igneous rocks. Rb-Sr ages obtained are comparable with published K-Ar dates. The Rb-Sr age for the trachytes is 14.± 7 m.y. and the other alkali-enriched rocks give ages ranging within the limits of 14.4 to 12.0 m.y.     

Revision of lunar Rb-Sr ages

Becalibration of ‘spikes’ using stoichiometric Rb and Sr salts recently issued by the National Bureau of Standards shows that our determinations of the ratio ${}^{87}\text{Rb}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ in lunar samples have been low by 1.8 per cent, which we attribute to non-stoichiometry of the salts previously used for calibration, particularly RbCl. As a result, our lunar age-determinations must be decreased by this amount.     

The transition from subduction to continental collision: crustal structure in the North Canterbury region, New Zealand

The North Canterbury region marks the transition from Pacific plate subduction to continental collision in the South Island of New Zealand. Details of the seismicity, structure and tectonics of this region have been revealed by an 11-week microearthquake survey using 24 portable digital seismographs. Arrival time data from a well-recorded subset of microearthquakes have been combined with those from three explosions at the corners of the microearthquake network in a simultaneous inversion for both hypocentres and velocity structure. The velocity structure is consistent with the crust in North Canterbury being an extension of the converging Chatham Rise. The crust is about 27 km thick, and consists of an 11 km thick seismic upper crust and 7 km thick seismic lower crust, with the middle part of the crust being relatively aseismic. Seismic velocities are consistent with the upper and middle crust being composed of greywacke and schist respectively, while several lines of evidence suggest that the lower crust is the lower part of the old oceanic crust on which the overlying rocks were originally deposited.
The distribution of relocated earthquakes deeper than 15 km indicates that the seismic lower crust changes dip markedly near 43S. To the south-west it is subhorizontal, while to the north-east it dips north-west at about 10. Fault-plane solutions for these earthquakes also change near 43S. For events to the south, P -axes trend approximately normal to the plate boundary (reflecting continental collision), while for events to the north, T -axes are aligned down the dip of the subducted plate (reflecting slab pull). While lithospheric subduction is continuous across the transition, it is not clear whether the lower crust near 43S is flexed or torn.     

SHRIMP Ion Microprobe Zircon U—Pb Age and Sm—Nd Isotopic Characteristics oof the NE Jiangxi Ophiolite and Its Tectonic Implications

The new SHRIMP zircon U-Pb isotopic study suggests that the crystallization age of a highly fractionated magma in the NE Jiangxi ophiolite suite is 968±23 Ma. Re-calculated Sm-Nd isochron age of 955±44 Ma is within analytical errors. consistent with the zircon U-Pb age. With the exception of two anomalous Sm-Nd data, the remaining 15 analyses so far obtained for the ophiolite gave^εNd (T) values falling into a limited range from +4.3 to +6.7, indicating that the ophiolite was derived from a relatively strongly depleted mantle source. Sm-Nd isotopic systematics in some samples may have been strongly affected by post-magmatic events, such as alteration, deformation and metamorphism, resulting in anomalous^εNd (T) values. Combined with published⁴⁰Ar³⁹Ar age data, it can be concluded that the collision between the Yangtze and South China Blocks occurred during 0.97-0.80 Ga. This work was financially supported by the President Grant of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Constraints on the age of the Warrawoona Group, eastern Pilbara Block, Western Australia

Zircons from mafic and felsic volcanic rocks in the type area of the Warrawoona Group, the basal Archaean greenstone succession of the eastern Pilbara Block, have been dated precisely using the ion-microprobe SHRIMP. The results allow two alternative time-frames for the duration of the Warrawoona Group, dependent on how the dated zircons are considered to relate to the volcanic rocks. Our favoured interpretation requires a hiatus of 135±5 Ma between the Duffer Formation at 3.46 Ga and the overlying felsic volcanic rocks of the Wyman Formation, and a hydrothermal or later magmatic origin for zircons of age 3.33 Ga within one Duffer Formation sample and the underlying metabasalts. The alternative time-frame requires a short time for deposition of the entire Group, less than 15 Ma at 3.33 Ga, and a xenocrystic origin for the 3.46 Ga zircons of the Duffer Formation. Outside the type area of the Warrawoona Group, the age of an intrusive granodiorite requires that greenstones be older than 3.43 Ga and the Group formed over an interval of > 120 Ma.Visibly different zircons within one of the Duffer Formation samples were found to be Palaeozoic in age and presumably constitute hydrothermal growth of new zircon within the rock at low temperature. Similar zircons were found within samples from other rock units but with a spread of Proterozoic ages.