Morphological identification of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alexandrium</Emphasis> species (Dinophyceae) from Jinhae-Masan Bay,Korea

Outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) and dense blooms caused by Alexandrium species in Jinhae-Masan Bay, Korea have been nearly annual events for many years. However, excluding some Alexandrium species responsible for PSP, there are no critical reports on the morphology of Alexandrium species in this bay. To identify the Alexandrium species based on detailed morphological features, vegetative cells collected water samples and established by the incubation of resting cysts isolated from sediment trap samples were analyzed. Four species of Alexandrium were identified: Alexandrium affine, A. fundyense, A. catenella, and A. insuetum. Morphological features of these species were basically consistent with those outlined in previous studies. However, the ventral pore and the connecting pore on the sulcal plate, which have been accepted as diagnostic characteristics for the identification of A. fundyense and A. catenella, need to be reevaluated, indicating that useful morphological features for identifying these two species should be recommended to avoid confusion in the classification of species in genus Alexandrium.     

Evaluating the contribution of multi-model combination to streamflow hindcasting by empirical and conceptual models

The contribution of multi-model combination to daily streamflow hindcasting was evaluated through the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) and RNN (recurrent neural networks) models with 100 ensemble members generated with different initial conditions for both. In the calibration phase, the analysis showed that the HBV and RNN models with 20 members have better accuracy and require less calibration time. The combination of two models, however, did not provide significant improvements when 80 more members were added in the combination. In the validation phase, the results indicated that both HBV and RNN models with 20 members not only accurately produce reliable and stable streamflow hindcasting, but also effectively simulate the timing and the value of peak flows. From the consistency of calibration and validation results, the study provides an important contribution, namely, that ensemble size is not sensitive to the type of hydrological model in terms of streamflow hindcasting.     

Progressive change of tidal wave characteristics from the eastern Yellow Sea to the Asan Bay,a strongly convergent bay in the west coast of Korea

Although there have been studies on the tide in convergent bay (or estuary), the tide change in terms of phase speed, amplitude, and phase difference between elevation and tidal current from a coastal ocean to a convergent bay has not been clearly shown so far. This study systematically examines the change of tidal wave characteristics from the eastern Yellow Sea to the Asan Bay, a strongly convergent bay on the west coast of Korea, using observations and an analytical model. As the tidal wave propagates from the eastern Yellow Sea into the Asan Bay, the phase speed, amplitude, and phase difference between elevation and tidal current increase along the channel. Such a phenomenon represents a unique example of tide change from a coastal ocean to a convergent bay, indicating dominance of convergence over friction in the Asan Bay. Both analytically computed tidal amplitude and travelling time compare well with observations. In the Asan Bay, the influence of the reflected wave is only felt in the upper one fifth of the bay and is almost unperceivable in the rest of the bay. The analytical analyses presented in this paper are particularly useful for understanding the relative importance of channel convergence, bottom friction, and reflected wave on the tidal characteristics change along the channel and the proposed method could be applicable to other estuaries.     

Extended two-body problem for rotating rigid bodies

Given the interest in future space missions devoted to the exploration of key moons in the solar system and that may involve libration point orbits, an efficient design strategy for transfers between moons is introduced that leverages the dynamics in these multi-body systems. The moon-to-moon analytical transfer (MMAT) method is introduced, comprised of a general methodology for transfer design between the vicinities of the moons in any given system within the context of the circular restricted three-body problem, useful regardless of the orbital planes in which the moons reside. A simplified model enables analytical constraints to efficiently determine the feasibility of a transfer between two different moons moving in the vicinity of a common planet. In particular, connections between the periodic orbits of such two different moons are achieved. The strategy is applicable for any type of direct transfers that satisfy the analytical constraints. Case studies are presented for the Jovian and Uranian systems. The transition of the transfers into higher-fidelity ephemeris models confirms the validity of the MMAT method as a fast tool to provide possible transfer options between two consecutive moons.

     

Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy

Natural Hazards - In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with...     

A technique for prediction of SPEs from solar radio flux by statistical analysis,ANN and GA

Solar Radio Flux (SRF) is the significant index in easily evaluating everyday solar activities. From the statistical analysis of SRF at 2800 MHz, 1415 MHz and 610 MHz from 1976 to 1994, and only 111 Solar Proton Events (SPEs) occurring in the same period, we have given the statistical relation between them. In fact, there occurred a total of 131 SPEs in the same period, but we dealt with only 111 SPEs of them, because of lack of SRF data in SGD (2800 MHz, 1415 MHz and 610 MHz). We also discussed the possible parameters of SRF at 2800 MHz, 1415 MHz and 610 MHz for prediction of SPEs by statistical analysis, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) using MATLAB. In this study, we used some parameters: the daily total SRF, the overall rate of increase of SRF and SPEs.     

The implications of Arctic sea ice decline on shipping

Although a ‘blue’ Arctic Ocean is predicted in the summertime to occur from the middle of this century, current rates of warming indicate an earlier realization. Also, routes along the coast of Siberia will be navigable much earlier. However, before the Arctic routes can reliably be used on a large scale for transit by shipping along its passages, more investments are required on infrastructure and the provision of marine services to ensure the safe and secure transit of shipping with minimal environmental impact.     

Assimilation of sea surface temperature in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and its marginal seas using the ensemble Kalman filter

Satellite-borne sea surface temperature (SST) data were assimilated with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in a Northwest Pacific Ocean circulation model to examine the effect of data assimilation. The model domain included the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean and its marginal seas, such as the Yellow Sea and East/Japan Sea. The performance of the data assimilation was evaluated by comparing the simulated ocean state with that observed. Spatially averaged root-mean-squared errors in the SST and sea surface height (SSH) decreased by 0.44 °C and 4 cm, respectively, by the assimilation. The results of the numerical experiments substantiated the effectiveness of the SST assimilation via the EnKF for all marginal seas, as well as the Kuroshio region. The benefit of the data assimilation depended on the characteristics of each marginal sea. The variation of the SST in the East/Japan Sea and the Kuroshio extension (KE) region were improved 34% and those in the Yellow Sea 12.5%. The variation of the SSH was improved approximately 36% in the KE region. This large improvement was achieved in the deep-water regions because assimilation of SST data corrected the separation point of the western boundary currents, such as the Kuroshio and the East Korea Warm Current, and the associated horizontal surface currents. The SST assimilation via the EnKF also improved the subsurface temperature profiles. The effectiveness of SST assimilation was seasonally dependent, with the improvement being relatively larger in winter than in summer, which was related to the seasonal variation of the vertical mixing and stratification in the ocean surface layer.     

Plankton dynamics due to rainfall,eutrophication, dilution,grazing and assimilation in an urbanized coastal lagoon

After a prolonged summer dry period, the effects of a distinctive and continuing rainfall on the nutrients and plankton of an urban coastal lagoon were investigated over 2 months. The lagoon filled up over 5 weeks from <10% of its maximum volume until it broke open to the sea. Nutrients (ammonia and oxidised nitrogen) significantly increased the day after initial rainfall, before returning to pre-rainfall conditions within 5 days. Phytoplankton biomass grew 10 fold within a week after initial rainfall in the 25–30 °C water and declined to near initial levels 2 weeks later. The assemblage of phytoplankton and zooplankton changed dramatically after 1 day and again by 6 days later, gradually returning to the original community by 2 weeks after the initial rainfall. Zooplankton responded within a day with a two fold increase in the adult stages of the calanoid copepod Oithona sp., followed a week later by nauplii and adult Acartia bispinosa. The influx of adult Oithona indicates resting populations that were previously under sampled by our plankton net. The plankton community returned to the initial state by 2 weeks, to being dominated by a centric diatom and A. bispinosa after 5 weeks. Dilution of the lagoon reached a maximum of 0.25 d⁻¹, while growth rates of the phytoplankton population reached a maximum of 1 d⁻¹, and A. bispinosa nauplii growth of 2.5 d⁻¹. Declines in chlorophyll biomass from the maximum 10 μg l⁻¹, at a rate of approximately 10% d⁻¹ are consistent with the modelled uptake by zooplankton. The nutrients from runoff, growth and the influx of new zooplankton into the water column, resulted in a depleted δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N stable isotope signature of A. bispinosa by 2–4 ppt within 1–2 weeks, consistent with diatom growth and the terrestrial supply of depleted nutrients. δ³⁴S of A. bispinosa was enriched by 2 ppt for 1–2 weeks after rainfall, but unlike C and N, returned to pre-rainfall levels by the end of the study period. We suggest that plankton studies in coastal lakes with variable water levels that are not tidally driven, should account for the influence of changes in water levels to help explain data variability.