Potential of Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS for Landslide Hazard Assessment in Southern Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia)

Big landslides are one of the main natural hazards in Kyrgyzstan, which are concentrated in the foothills of the high mountain ranges along the Eastern rim of the Fergana Basin. Because of the high number of landslides and their occurrence over large areas there is a strong need for effective and objective landslide hazard assessment at a regional scale. In Kyrgyzstan satellite remote sensing data represent the only source of multitemporal information about surface conditions covering large areas. Against this background the goal is the development of a satellite remote sensing and GIS-based system for quantitatively oriented and spatially differentiated hazard assessment. During the presented pilot investigations in the area of the Upper Maili Suu river basin a methodological framework has been developed incorporating remote sensing and GIS techniques for various levels of information extraction. So far, methodological investigations have been focused on the potential of satellite remote sensing data from different optical (Landsat-(E)TM, ASTER, MOMS-2P) and radar (ERS-1/2) systems for the creation of an improved knowledge basis for hazard assessment. This includes landslide identification, generation of topographic information and characterization of the geological setting. The derived primary information have been analyzed in a GIS environment to gain an improved process understanding as a main prerequisite for successful hazard assessment. The results show that currently available satellite remote sensing data are suitable for landslide investigation in Kyrgyzstan. Full exploitation of their information potential requires combined analysis with other thematic information based on methods of interactive and automated information extraction.     

Accessibility for High Asia： Comparative Perspectives on Northern Pakistan＇s Traffic Infrastructure and Linkages with Its Neighbours in the Hindukush-Karakoram- Himalaya

Starting with a discussion of development concepts which were applied in practice and which followed the developmentalist paradigm the expansion of traffic infrastructure in colonial and post-colonial periods is presented for the High Asian mountain rim. Selective railways and roads are the major feature of this development, which aimed first on serving the convenience of hill station visitors and followed strategic considerations later on. This bias between regional planning and implementation remains a characteristic feature. At the same time traffic infrastructure without asphalt roads is important for the mountain areas, thus breaking up the strong correlation between development and asphalt roads.     

Tropical precipitation, SSTs and the surface energy budget: a zonally symmetric perspective

The relative importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the surface energy budget to tropical precipitation is examined by comparing models with zonally symmetric climates, both fixed SST and coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean. Two models are considered with differing surface flux formulations and in each case solutions that are symmetric about the equator are perturbed to create interhemispheric asymmetry. When SSTs are prescribed in the two models with different flux formulations, the magnitude of tropical precipitation response to identical SST anomalies is significantly different, but the differences can be understood in terms of the altered surface fluxes. In contrast, when the net surface energy fluxes are constrained to be identical in mixed layer simulations of the two different models, the response of tropical precipitation to perturbations in the surface energy balance is very similar. Both perspectives predict qualitatively the same precipitation response, but the energy budget better predicts the magnitude of the precipitation response. Thus, we argue that the atmospheric energy budget, controlled in these experiments primarily by the surface energy budget, is more fundamental to the control of tropical precipitation than the SSTs, in these simulations with axisymmetric climates. We touch briefly on a complication in the interpretation of the model results due to the fact that fixed SST and slab-ocean versions of the model can produce different Hadley cell strengths for the same SSTs.     

Reliable estimation of orbit errors in spaceborne SAR interferometry

An approach to improve orbital state vectors by orbit error estimates derived from residual phase patterns in synthetic aperture radar interferograms is presented. For individual interferograms, an error representation by two parameters is motivated: the baseline error in cross-range and the rate of change of the baseline error in range. For their estimation, two alternatives are proposed: a least squares approach that requires prior unwrapping and a less reliable gridsearch method handling the wrapped phase. In both cases, reliability is enhanced by mutual control of error estimates in an overdetermined network of linearly dependent interferometric combinations of images. Thus, systematic biases, e.g., due to unwrapping errors, can be detected and iteratively eliminated. Regularising the solution by a minimum-norm condition results in quasi-absolute orbit errors that refer to particular images. For the 31 images of a sample ENVISAT dataset, orbit corrections with a mutual consistency on the millimetre level have been inferred from 163 interferograms. The method itself qualifies by reliability and rigorous geometric modelling of the orbital error signal but does not consider interfering large scale deformation effects. However, a separation may be feasible in a combined processing with persistent scatterer approaches or by temporal filtering of the estimates.     

A global perspective on African climate

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.     

Spatial and temporal changes in dry-snow line altitude on the Antarctic Peninsula

Drastic changes were detected in glacial systems of the Antarctic Peninsula in the last decades. The observed phenomena comprise the disintegration of ice shelves, acceleration and thinning of glaciers, and retreat of glacier fronts. However, due to the lack of consistent systematic observations in particular of the higher parts of the glacial systems, it is difficult to predict further responses of the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climatic change. The present paper analyses spatial and temporal variations of changes in the dry-snow line altitude on the Antarctic Peninsula as extracted from a time series (1992–2005) of ERS-1/2 SAR and Envisat ASAR data. Upward changes in dry-snow line altitude were observed in general, and are attributed to extreme high-temperature events impacting the central plateaus of the Antarctic Peninsula and the increasing duration of warming periods. A mean decrease in dry-snow line altitude was detected on the west side of the peninsula and is identified as a response to recorded increase in precipitation and accumulation. These results validate the capability of SAR data for deriving superficial parameters of glaciers to be used as indicators of climatic changes in high-latitude regions where operational restrictions limit conventional meteorological observations.     

TNOs are Cool: A Survey of the Transneptunian Region

Over one thousand objects have so far been discovered orbiting beyond Neptune. These trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) represent the primitive remnants of the planetesimal disk from which the planets formed and are perhaps analogous to the unseen dust parent-bodies in debris disks observed around other main-sequence stars. The dynamical and physical properties of these bodies provide unique and important constraints on formation and evolution models of the Solar System. While the dynamical architecture in this region (also known as the Kuiper Belt) is becoming relatively clear, the physical properties of the objects are still largely unexplored. In particular, fundamental parameters such as size, albedo, density and thermal properties are difficult to measure. Measurements of thermal emission, which peaks at far-IR wavelengths, offer the best means available to determine the physical properties. While Spitzer has provided some results, notably revealing a large albedo diversity in this population, the increased sensitivity of Herschel and its superior wavelength coverage should permit profound advances in the field. Within our accepted project we propose to perform radiometric measurements of 139 objects, including 25 known multiple systems. When combined with measurements of the dust population beyond Neptune (e.g. from the New Horizons mission to Pluto), our results will provide a benchmark for understanding the Solar debris disk, and extra-solar ones as well.     

Diffusion of Ar in muscovite

Hydrothermal treatment of closely sized muscovite aggregates in a piston-cylinder apparatus induced ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss that is revealed in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating spectra. Age spectra and Arrhenius data, however, differ from that expected from a single diffusion length scale. A numerical model of episodic loss assuming the presence of multiple diffusion domains yields excellent fits between synthetic and actual degassing spectra. We used this model to isolate ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss from the grains that remained intact during hydrothermal treatment at 10 kbar permitting calculation of diffusion coefficients in the temperature range 730-600 °C. Diffusion data generated in this manner yield an activation energy (E) of 63 ± 7 kcal/mol and frequency factor (D_o) of 2.3  cm²/s. Experiments at 20 kbar yield diffusivities lower by about an order of magnitude and correspond to an activation volume of ∼14 cm³/mol. Together, these parameters predict substantially greater retentivity of Ar in muscovite than previously assumed and correspond to a closure temperature (T_c) of 425 °C for a 100 μm radius grain cooling at 10 °C/Ma at 10 kbar (T_c = 405 °C at 5 kbar. Age and log (r/r_o) spectra for the run products show strong correlations indicating that muscovites can retain Ar diffusion boundaries and mechanisms that define their natural retentivity during vacuum step heating. This may permit the application of high resolution, continuous ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology to low grade, regionally metamorphosed terranes.     

Shalstab mathematical model and WorldView-2 satellite images to identification of landslide-susceptible areas

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards, occurring all over the world, may become a disaster when humans and nature interact. In Brazil, landslides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common...