Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km³ in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50–100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500–1500 km². Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792.The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km² at velocities exceeding 100 m s^–1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny.Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms^–1 and travel tens of kilometers. When not confined by valley walls, avalanches can affect wide areas beyond the volcano's flanks. Tsunamis from debris avalanches at coastal volcanoes have caused more fatalities than have the landslides themselves or associated eruptions. The probable travel distance (L) of avalanches can be estimated by considering the potential vertical drop (H). Data from a catalog of around 200 debris avalanches indicates that the H/L rations for avalanches with volumes of 0.1–1 km³ average 0.13 and range 0.09–0.18; for avalanches exceeding 1 km³, H/L ratios average 0.09 and range 0.5–0.13.Large-scale deformation of the volcanic edefice and intense local seismicity precede many slope failures and can indicate the likely failure direction and orientation of potential lateral blasts. The nature and duration of precursory activity vary widely, and the timing of slope faliure greatly affects the type of associated eruption. Bandai-type eruptions are particularly difficult to anticipate because they typically climax suddenly without precursory eruptions and may be preceded by only short periods of seismicity.     

Petrogenesis of the Elephant Moraine A79001 meteorite: Multiple magma pulses on the shergottite parent body

The EETA 79001 achondrite consists of two distinct igneous lithologies joined along a planar, non-brecciated contact. Both are basaltic rocks composed primarily of pigeonite, augite, and maskelynite, but one contains zoned megacrysts of olivine, orthopyroxene, and chromite that represent disaggregated xenoliths of harzburzite. Both lithologies probably formed from successive volcanic flows or multiple injections of magma into a small, shallow chamber. Many similarities between the two virtually synchronous magmas suggest that they are related. Possible mechanisms to explain their differences involve varying degrees of assimilation, fractionation from similar parental magmas, or partial melting of a similar source peridotite; of these, assimilation of the observed megacryst assemblage seems most plausible. However, some isotopic contamination may be required in any of these petrogenetic models. The meteorite has suffered extensive shock metamorphism and localized melting during a large impact event that probably excavated and liberated it from its parent body. Both basaltic lithologies and the inferred ultramafic protolith of the megacryst assemblage are petrologically similar to other members of the shergottite group, and all may have been derived from a volcanic-plutonic complex on a planetary body.     

PCB concentrations and metabolism patterns in common terns (Sterna hirundo) from different breeding colonies in The Netherlands

PCB levels in blood of common terns (Sterna hirundo) from Terneuzen, a breeding colony in The Netherlands with relatively low breeding success, were significantly higher than in birds from two Dutch reference colonies, one nearby (Oesterdam) and one further away (the Isle of Griend). However, a detailed analysis of the patterns of PCB congeners in birds from the different colonies indicated that birds from Terneuzen and to a lesser extent birds from the Oesterdam showed Ah-receptor mediated activity of P450 iso-enzymes. It is concluded that the induction of this enzyme activity in Terneuzen may be related to PCBs as well as other non-identified compounds. In contrast to this, it is likely that at the Oesterdam non-identified compounds are mainly responsible for the enzyme activity, resulting in a shift of PCB congener patterns.     

Conjoint modeling of residential group preferences: A comparison of the internal validity of hierarchical information integration approaches

 In this paper, two approaches for measuring residential group preferences, based on the method of Hierarchical Information Integration (HII), are compared. In particular, the hypothesis that group-based preference models estimated from integrated HII experiments better predict group preferences than part individual-based group models estimated from classical HII experiments is tested. To that effect, the models' ability to predict group preferences for new residential alternatives is compared in a study of residential preferences of co-ops. Results indicate that integrated HII group experiments indeed result in better predictions of residential preferences.     

Geopositioning Accuracy of Ikonos Imagery: Indications from Two Dimensional Transformations

Earth observation satellites with 1m resolution, such as Space Imaging's Ikonos system, offer the photogrammetric and remote sensing communities a significant new means for geospatial information collection. These satellites possess the potential for pixel-level geopositioning precision and promise timely, highly automated generation of two dimensional (2D) and three dimensional (3D) spatial information products. This paper concentrates on the pursuit of optimal accuracy and considers an essential first step in the evaluation of the Ikonos imaging system, namely the metric integrity of the sensor system. In the absence of sensor calibration information (the camera model), an empirical evaluation approach has been adopted. This involves an assessment of 2D transformations between image and planar object space. It is shown that based on results obtained in the Melbourne Ikonos Testfield, 2D geopositioning to 0.5 m accuracy is possible from the base-level "Geo"product when a modest amount of good quality ground control is available and sub-pixel image mensuration is achieved. These findings are applicable to both near-nadir imagery and oblique stereo images. Moreover, the results obtained suggest that there are no significant geometric perturbations in the sensor system and initial image processing, which augurs well for the successful application of non-collinearity based 3D orientation and triangulation models for Ikonos imagery.     

Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

The Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) 1998: experiment overview and modelling of the microphysical processes during the seeding by isentropic gas expansion

The second field campaign of the Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) project took place in February 1998 on the mountain Puy de Dôme in the centre of France. The content of residual aerosol particles, of H₂O₂ and NH₃ in cloud droplets was evaluated by evaporating the drops larger than 5 μm in a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) and by measuring the residual particle concentration and the released gas content. The same trace species were studied behind a round jet impactor for the complementary interstitial aerosol particles smaller than 5 μm diameter. In a second step of experiments, the ambient supercooled cloud was converted to a mixed phase cloud by seeding the cloud with ice particles by the gas release from pressurised gas bottles. A comparison between the physical and chemical characteristics of liquid drops and ice particles allows a study of the fate of the trace constituents during the presence of ice crystals in the cloud.In the present paper, an overview is given of the CIME 98 experiment and the instrumentation deployed. The meteorological situation during the experiment was analysed with the help of a cloud scale model. The microphysics processes and the behaviour of the scavenged aerosol particles before and during seeding are analysed with the detailed microphysical model ExMix. The simulation results agreed well with the observations and confirmed the assumption that the Bergeron–Findeisen process was dominating during seeding and was influencing the partitioning of aerosol particles between drops and ice crystals. The results of the CIME 98 experiment give an insight on microphysical changes, redistribution of aerosol particles and cloud chemistry during the Bergeron–Findeisen process when acting also in natural clouds.     

Behaviour of H2O2, NH3, and black carbon in mixed-phase clouds during CIME

We investigated the partitioning of trace substances during the phase transition from supercooled to mixed-phase cloud induced by artificial seeding. Simultaneous determination of the concentrations of H₂O₂, NH₃ and black carbon (BC) in both condensed and interstitial phases with high time resolution showed that the three species undergo different behaviour in the presence of a mixture of ice crystals and supercooled droplets. Both H₂O₂ and NH₃ are efficiently scavenged by growing ice crystals, whereas BC stayed predominantly in the interstitial phase. In addition, the scavenging of H₂O₂ is driven by co-condensation with water vapour onto ice crystals while NH₃ uptake into the ice phase is more efficient than co-condensation alone. The high solubility of NH₄⁺ in the ice could explain this result. Finally, it appears that the H₂O₂–SO₂ reaction is very slow in the ice phase with respect to the liquid phase. Our results are directly applicable for clouds undergoing limited riming.     

δ objects as a gauge for stress sensitivity of strain rate in mylonites

Our understanding of the flow properties of deforming rocks in the Earth's lithosphere is mainly based on theoretical work and on the extrapolation of high-strain-rate experimental data to the low strain rates of rock deformation in nature. The geometry of structures in naturally deformed rocks can be an additional source of information on the rheology of the lithosphere. Flow experiments show that the geometry of a mantle of recrystallised material around a rigid object can be used to distinguish between a linear or power-law relation of differential stress and strain rate in strongly deformed rocks such as mylonites. This means that it is possible to use geometrical patterns in deformed rocks to constrain aspects of the rheology and to check the applicability of theoretical models and the extrapolation of laboratory data on creep in rocks to nature.