Evaluation of a WRF dynamical downscaling simulation over California

This paper presents results from a 40 year Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) based dynamical downscaling experiment performed at 12 km horizontal grid spacing, centered on the state of California, and forced by a 1° × 1.25° finite-volume current-climate Community Climate System Model ver. 3 (CCSM3) simulation. In-depth comparisons between modeled and observed regional-average precipitation, 2 m temperature, and snowpack are performed. The regional model reproduces the spatial distribution of precipitation quite well, but substantially overestimates rainfall along windward slopes. This is due to strong overprediction of precipitation intensity; precipitation frequency is actually underpredicted by the model. Moisture fluxes impinging on the coast seem to be well-represented over California, implying that precipitation bias is caused by processes internal to WRF. Positive-definite moisture advection and use of the Grell cumulus parameterization result in some decrease in precipitation bias, but other sources are needed to explain the full bias magnitude. Surface temperature is well simulated in all seasons except summer, when overly-dry soil moisture results in a several degree warm bias in both CCSM3 and WRF. Additionally, coastal temperatures appear to be too warm due to a coastal sea surface temperature bias inherited from CCSM3. Modeled snowfall/snowmelt agrees quite well with observations, but snow water equivalent is found to be much too low due to monthly reinitialization of all regional model fields from CCSM3 values.     

Climate change impacts on fish catch in the world fishing grounds

Climate change impacts on fish catch in the major fishing areas in the world oceans using a new method for forecasting of fish catch is presented with probability statements. The data on historical behaviour of surface water temperature and fish catches were analyzed and processed to assess the dynamics of spatial temperature distribution and fish catches for the world oceans. An analysis shows that the species diversity of fish catch does not change significantly with time and hence the total fish catch was used as the main dynamic variables, practically without loss of information about the dynamic properties of the system. A predictor was constructed to predict the dynamics of fish catch for new values of four moments for a future temperature distribution and the predictor’s power was estimated with a probability statement. Based on the predicted temperatures for the years 2000–2100, the fish catches in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans have been predicted with a probability statement.     

Intercomparison of Air–Sea Interface Fluxes over the Yellow Sea and Korea Strait: Impact of Tsushima Warm Current

Surface-layer meteorological observations obtained from oceanic buoys over the Korean Strait and the Yellow Sea are used to estimate surface-layer turbulent fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum over the East-Asian Marginal Seas. Special emphasis is paid towards explanation of the impact of the Tsushima warm current flowing through the Korean Strait on air–sea interface fluxes. During the active phase of the Tsushima warm current, when the difference in sea surface temperature and air temperature becomes as large as 8°C, the sensible heat flux increases to a value of about 135 W m⁻², while the latent heat flux is around 200 W m⁻². The study attempts to broaden our understanding on the air-sea interaction processes over the Yellow Sea and Korean Strait.     

Spatio-temporal Variability of Surface-layer Turbulent Fluxes Over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea During the ICARB Field Experiment

We report the spatio-temporal variability of surface-layer turbulent fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) during the Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases Radiation Budget (ICARB) field experiment. The meteorological component of ICARB conducted during March – May 2006 onboard the oceanic research vessel Sagar Kanya forms the database for the present study. The bulk transfer coefficients and the surface-layer fluxes are estimated using a modified bulk aerodynamic method, and then the spatio-temporal variability of these air-sea interface fluxes is discussed in detail. It is observed that the sensible and latent heat fluxes over the AS are marginally higher than those over the BoB, which we attribute to differences in the prevailing meteorological conditions over the two oceanic regions. The values of the wind stress, sensible and latent heat fluxes are compared with those obtained for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) period. The variation of drag coefficient (C _D ), exchange coefficients of sensible heat and moisture (C _H = C _E ) and neutral drag coefficient (C _DN ) with wind speed is also discussed.

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Vertical structure of sea-breeze circulation over Thumba (8.5°N,?76.9°E,?India) in the winter months and a case study during W-ICARB field experiment

This research article aims at characterization of the sea-breeze circulation over Thumba (8.5°N,?76.9°E,?India) in the winter season from December 2008 to February 2009, when this mesoscale circulation over the study domain was prominent. The characteristics of sea-breeze circulation cell comprising sea-breeze and compensatory return flow are investigated for clear-sky and cloudy days. The study indicated delayed onset of sea-breeze on the cloudy days as compared to the clear-sky days and the vertical thickness of sea-breeze circulation cell was found to be larger for the clear-sky days. Vertical thickness of the return flow for both clear-sky and cloudy days was larger than that of the sea-breeze flow. Simultaneous observations of upper-air meteorological parameters obtained through balloon-borne GPS sonde ascents carried out from Thumba and its adjoining coastal ocean on 29 January 2009 as part of the Winter phase of Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (W-ICARB) are utilized for a case study towards investigation of diurnal evolution of the sea-breeze circulation cell. Results obtained from this study indicated systematic evolution of sea-breeze circulation over Thumba, however, it was not very clear over ocean which is attributed to cloudy conditions that prevailed on the day of measurement.     

Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO₂ leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (?8.2?W?m^?2) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO₂ (3.3?W?m^?2) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (?4.2?W?m^?2). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification.     

High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate

We examine simulations of today's climate performed with a global atmospheric general circulation model run at spectral truncations of T42, T170, and T239, corresponding to grid cell sizes of roughly 310 km, 75 km, and 55 km, respectively. The simulations were forced with observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice concentrations. The T42 simulations and initial simulations at T170 and T239 were performed using a model version that was carefully "tuned" to optimize results at T42; subsequent simulations at T170 and T239 used a model version that was partly re-tuned to improve results at T170. On the scales of a T42 grid cell and larger, nearly all quantities we examined in all the T170 and T239 simulations agree better with observations, at least in terms of spatial patterns, than in the T42 simulations. In some cases the improvements are very substantial. Improvements are seen in all-season, global domain results, and in results pertaining to most seasons and latitude bands. Increasing the model resolution from T42 introduces biases (errors in the mean) into some simulated quantities; the worst of these were removed by the partial retuning we performed at T170. This retuning has little effect on the spatial patterns of results, except in Northern Hemisphere winter at T170, where it tends to bring improvements. We discuss aspects of simulated regional climates, and their dependence on model resolution.     

Effects of model resolution and subgrid-scale physics on the simulation of precipitation in the continental United States

We analyze simulations of the global climate performed at a range of spatial resolutions to assess the effects of horizontal spatial resolution on the ability to simulate precipitation in the continental United States. The model investigated is the CCM3 general circulation model. We also preliminarily assess the effect of replacing cloud and convective parameterizations in a coarse-resolution (T42) model with an embedded cloud-system resolving model (CSRM). We examine both spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation and daily time scale temporal variability of precipitation in the continental United States. For DJF and SON, high-resolution simulations produce spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation that agree more closely with observed precipitation patterns than do results from the same model (CCM3) at coarse resolution. However, in JJA and MAM, there is little improvement in spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation with increasing resolution, particularly in the southeast USA. This is because of the dominance of convective (i.e., parameterized) precipitation in these two seasons. We further find that higher-resolution simulations have more realistic daily precipitation statistics. In particular, the well-known tendency at coarse resolution to have too many days with weak precipitation and not enough intense precipitation is partially eliminated in higher-resolution simulations. However, even at the highest resolution examined here (T239), the simulated intensity of the mean and of high-percentile daily precipitation amounts is too low. This is especially true in the southeast USA, where the most extreme events occur. A new GCM, in which a cloud-resolving model (CSRM) is embedded in each grid cell and replaces convective and stratiform cloud parameterizations, solves this problem, and actually produces too much precipitation in the form of extreme events. However, in contrast to high-resolution versions of CCM3, this model produces little improvement in spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation compared to models at the same resolution using traditional parameterizations.     

Sustainable Community-Based Forestry Development: A Policy and Programme Framework to Enhance Women's Participation

Conventional development theory and practice have often failed to recognise the centrality of women in sustainable resource management. A conceptual shift in environment and resource policies, planning and programmes is required to affirm that women are active participants rather than passive recipients of change. To address the need for enhanced women's participation in community-based forestry development, this paper focuses on the policy and programme elements important in the design and implementation of successful community forestry projects. Consequently, the intention of this paper is to increase the awareness of planners and decision-makers regarding methods of operationalising women's participation in community-based forestry. Building upon previous work from aid agencies and other researchers, a range of institutional, organisational, socio-cultural and project elements are identified. These elements provide a comprehensive framework of the policy and programme issues requiring consideration when promoting women's participation in successful community-based forestry activities.     

Solar wind velocity distribution on the heliospheric current sheet during Carrington rotations 1787-1795

The solar wind velocity distribution in the heliosphere is best represented using a v-map, where velocity contours are plotted in heliographic latitude-longitude coordinates. It has already been established that low-speed regions of the solar wind on the source surface correspond to the maximum bright regions of the K-corona and the neutral line of the coronal magnetic field. In this analysis, v-maps on the source surface for Carrington rotations (CRs) 1787-1795, during 1987, have been prepared using the interplanetary scintillation measurements at Research Institute of Atmospherics (RIA), Nagoya Univ., Japan. These v-maps were then used to study the time evolution of the low-speed (\leq450 km s⁻¹) belt of the solar wind and to deduce the distribution of solar wind velocity on the heliospheric current sheet. The low-speed belt of the solar wind on the source surface was found to change from one CR to the next, implying a time evolution. Instead of a slow and systematic evolution, the pattern of distribution of solar wind changed dramatically at one particular solar rotation (CR 1792) and the distributions for the succeeding rotations were similar to this pattern. The low-speed region, in most cases, was found to be close to the solar equator and almost parallel to it. However, during some solar rotations, they were found to be organised in certain longitudes, leaving regions with longitudinal width greater than 30^○ free of low-speed solar wind, i.e. these regions were occupied by solar wind with velocities greater than 450 km s⁻¹. It is also noted from this study that the low-speed belt, in general, followed the neutral line of the coronal magnetic field, except in certain cases. The solar wind velocity on the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) varied in the range 300–585 km s⁻¹ during the period of study, and the pattern of velocity distribution varied from rotation to rotation.