智能电源管理系统在北京市测震台网的应用

北京市测震台网的智能电源管理系统安装运行改善了测震台站的电源管理现状,变被动管理为主动管理,有效提高台站运行率,并在一定程度上节约运行经费。     

Comprehensive analysis and artificial intelligent simulation of land subsidence of Beijing, China

Mechanism and modeling of the land subsidence are complex because of the complicate geological background in Beijing, China. This paper analyzed the spatial relationship between land subsidence and three factors, including the change of groundwater level, the thickness of compressible sediments and the building area by using remote sensing and GIS tools in the upper-middle part of alluvial-proluvial plain fan of the Chaobai River in Beijing. Based on the spatial analysis of the land subsidence and three factors, there exist significant non-linear relationship between the vertical displacement and three factors. The Back Propagation Neural Network (BPN) model combined with Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to simulate regional distribution of the land subsidence. Results showed that at field scale, the groundwater level and land subsidence showed a significant linear relationship. However, at regional scale, the spatial distribution of groundwater depletion funnel did not overlap with the land subsidence funnel. As to the factor of compressible strata, the places with the biggest compressible strata thickness did not have the largest vertical displacement. The distributions of building area and land subsidence have no obvious spatial relationships. The BPN-GA model simulation results illustrated that the accuracy of the trained model during fifty years is acceptable with an error of 51% of verification data less than 20 mm and the average of the absolute error about 32 mm. The BPN model could be utilized to simulate the general distribution of land subsidence in the study area. Overall, this work contributes to better understand the complex relationship between the land subsidence and three influencing factors. And the distribution of the land subsidence can be simulated by the trained BPN-GA model with the limited available dada and acceptable accuracy.     

Carbon dynamics in woody biomass of forest ecosystem in China with forest management practices under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration

It is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration under global climate change regime. Previous researches focused on the stand-level forest carbon sequestration with rare investigation of forest carbon stocks influ- enced by forest management practices and climate change at regional scale. In this study, a general integrative approach was used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of woody biomass and harvested biomass of forest in China during the 21st century under dif- ferent scenarios of climate and CO2 concentration changes and management tasks by coupling Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget （InTEC） model with Global Forest Model （G4M）. The results showed that forest management practices have more predominant effects on forest stem stocking biomass than climate and CO2 concentration change. Meanwhile, the concurrent future changes in cli- mate and CO2 concentration will enhance the amounts of stem stocking biomass in forests of China by 12%-23% during 2001-2100 relative to that with climate change only. The task for maximizing stem stocking biomass will dramatically enhance the stem stocking biomass from 2001~100, while the task for maximum average increment will result in an increment of stem stocking biomass before 2050 then decline. The difference of woody biomass responding to forest management tasks was owing to the current age structure of forests in China. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of long-term woody biomass to management practices for different forest types （coniferous forest, mixed forest and deciduous forest） under changing climate and CO2 concentration was also analyzed. In addition, longer rotation length under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration scenario will dramatically increase the woody biomass of China during 2001~100. Therefore, our estimation indicated that taking the role of forest management in the carbon cycle into the consideration at regional or national level is very important to project the forest carbon sequestration under future climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.     

1956-2003年拉萨河流域径流变化趋势

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.     

黑龙江省塔河县宝兴沟金矿床地质特征及成矿构造环境

黑龙江省塔河县宝兴沟岩金矿床位于上黑龙江前陆盆地南缘,是近年来发现的具较大找矿潜力的岩金矿床。矿床产于浅成侵入岩与砂岩地层接触部位及侵入体内部。矿床地球化学研究表明,闪长玢岩、石英闪长岩与成矿关系密切,两者同属于高钾钙碱性岩石,富集轻稀土元素, Eu异常不明显,富集大离子亲石元素Rb、Th、K,亏损高场强元素Nb、Ta、Ti、Zr和重稀土元素Yb、Y。单颗粒锆石LA-ICP-MS法U-Pb同位素定年结果表明：石英闪长岩成岩时间为（124.92±1.3）Ma;花岗细晶岩测年结果为150～450 Ma,推测花岗细晶岩成岩时间可能为156 Ma左右。宝兴沟金矿床是在早白垩世由挤压转变为伸展环境的构造-岩浆-热液作用的产物,金矿化作用应发生在107.5～124.92 Ma;大兴安岭北段存在一期与早白垩世岩浆活动相伴的金矿化作用。因此,燕山晚期（早白垩世）岩浆活动地段尤其是浅成侵入体发育地区是今后重要的金矿化找矿方向之一。     

The non-ballistic superluminal motion in the plane of the sky

Faster than light or superluminal motion was originally predicted as a relativistic illusion of ballistic moving ejecta, and confirmed in a few tens of sources observationally. However, the recent results of the long-term multi-epoch observations of quasars, active galaxies, tracing the structure further along the jets and following the motion of individual features for longer time, raise questions that are difficult to understand by the standard ballistic model. That is, the ejecta are aligned with the local jet direction, instead of the core; and within individual jets apparently inward-moving features are observed. Here, we show that these unexpected phenomena, although only a small fraction among large samples, indicate the existence of non-ballistic jet motion, in which a continuous jet produces a discrete hot spot. And the precession of such a hot spot in the plane of the sky appears superluminal. Therefore, a unified and simple interpretation to the new results is obtained, which can be further tested through its predictions on the evolution of ejecta. The study is of importance in the understanding of the nature of superluminal motion, the interaction of jets and surrounding materials, as well as the common physics underlying quasars and microquasars.     

Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity.     

河北及邻区平均波速比变化特征分析

用和达法计算河北及邻区地震波速比并按照不同震级不同窗口作滑动平均。通过对唐山地区波速比变化特征与中强地震对应关系的定性分析,发现M_L≥1.5地震波速比曲线与M_L≥4.0的地震对应较好,提出异常指标进行定量统计得到该区波速比异常与地震的对应关系和预报效能;按照同样的思路对河北另外3个地区进行分析,发现各分区波速比异常既有共性特征也有差异。     

准噶尔盆地腹部侏罗系油气成藏主控因素定量分析及有利区预测

侏罗系是准噶尔盆地的主力油气层,资源潜力巨大;但其探明程度却很低,石油探明程度为17.5%,天然气探明程度仅为3%,油气聚集规律十分复杂。为此,本文应用要素匹配成藏模式(T-CDMS)预测了准噶尔盆地侏罗系的有利成藏领域。通过对准噶尔盆地腹部侏罗系四大主控因素(区域盖层(C)、优质沉积相(D)、古隆起(M)和烃源岩(S))的控藏地质特征研究,建立了各个主控因素的控藏定量数学模型。将单因素控藏概率加权平均得到功能要素综合控藏概率指数,依据该指数预测了准噶尔盆地侏罗系目的层在两个不同成藏期的有利成藏区域。结果表明:侏罗系最有利的成藏区域为陆梁隆起地区、车莫古隆起地区和沙北断阶带地区。经验证已发现的油气藏落入预测区带的概率达90%以上。     

苏德尔特油田低渗透凝灰质砂岩成岩作用及储层质量差异性演化

海拉尔盆地贝尔凹陷苏德尔特油田兴安岭油层为典型的富火山物质的低渗致密砂岩储层。利用岩心观察、薄片鉴定、扫描电镜分析、压汞测试分析等方法,对兴安岭油层储层成岩作用及其控制下的储层质量演化过程进行了系统研究。结果表明,储层目前主要处于中成岩A期,整体经历了压实作用-早期方解石胶结作用/方沸石胶结作用-方沸石溶解/长石溶解作用/高岭石胶结作用/硅质胶结作用-晚期方解石胶结作用。兴安岭油层储层可以划分出强压实成岩相（I）、弱压实-方解石中强胶结成岩相（II）、中等压实-方沸石/长石强溶解成岩相（III）、中等压实-方沸石/长石中强溶解-高岭石强烈充填成岩相（IV）4种类型的成岩相。压实作用和早期方解石胶结作用导致储层孔隙度和渗透率降低,方沸石和长石的溶解作用有效提高储层孔隙度和渗透率,高岭石的沉淀作用导致储层渗透率大大降低。成岩相I和成岩相II储层质量最差,孔隙度和渗透率均较低,为典型的特低孔特低渗致密储层;成岩相III储层质量最好,具有较高的孔隙度和渗透率,为中孔-中低渗储层;成岩相IV储层质量中等,具有较高的孔隙度,但渗透率较低,为中孔（特）低渗储层。