An RBF‐based model with an information processor for forecasting hourly reservoir inflow during typhoons

Inflow forecasting is essential for decision making on reservoir operation during typhoons. In this paper, a radial basis function (RBF)‐based model with an information processor is proposed for more accurate forecasts of hourly reservoir inflow. Firstly, based on the multilayer perceptron neural (MLP) network, an information processor is developed to pre‐process the typhoon information (namely, typhoon characteristics and rainfall) and to produce forecasts of rainfall. The forecasted rainfall and the observed inflow are then used as input to the RBF‐based model, which is a nonlinear function approximator, to produce forecasts of hourly inflow. For parameter estimation of the RBF‐based model, the fully‐supervised learning algorithm is used. Actual applications of the proposed model are performed to yield 1‐ to 6‐h ahead forecasts of inflow. To assess the improvement due to the use of the typhoon information processor, models without the typhoon information processor are constructed and compared with the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model performs the best and is capable of providing improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially for long lead‐time. In conclusion, the proposed model with a typhoon information processor can extract useful information from typhoon characteristics and rainfall, and consequently improve the forecasting performance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南海夏季风撤退期的气候特征I——40年平均

近年来广州地区的气溶胶污染日趋严重,灰霾天气主要出现在10月～次年4月。大气灰霾导致能见度恶化。自1980年代初开始,该地区的能见度急剧恶化,灰霾天气显著增加,其中有3次大的波动,分别代表广州地区经济发展相伴随的粉尘污染、硫酸盐加粉尘污染、光化学过程的细粒子加硫酸盐加粉尘的复合污染时期。雾和轻雾造成的低能见度的长期变化趋势,没有由于人类活动影响或经济发展影响带来的趋势性变化,其波动主要反映了气候波动固有的年际和年代际变化。广州地区能见度的恶化主要与细粒子有关,PM10有一半季均值超过国家二级标准的日均值浓度限值,而PM2.5季均值全部超过美国国家标准的日均值浓度限值,细粒子浓度甚高。另外PM2.5占PM10的比重非常高,可达62%～69%,尤其是旱季比雨季更高。     

白云机场低能见度气候的统计特征

利用白云机场最近１０年逐时能见度资料,对低能见度的气候特征进行了统计,并对造成低能见度障碍的天气现象和影响系统作了普查分析。结果表明：白云机场低能见度有明显的季节变化和日变化;低能见度平均出现次数与持续时间明显成反比;造成低能见度障碍的天气现象仅有雾和雨;弱高压脊是冬半年造成恶劣能见度的主要系统,锋后极少出现恶劣能见度。     

北太平洋涛动的季节演变及其与我国冬春气候异常的联系

本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和我国160站的观测资料,首先定义了季节平均的北太平洋涛动(NPO)指数,在此基础上分析了不同季节中NPO的时空变化特征,特别对冬季和春季NPO与我国气温、降水异常的关系作了研究.结果表明,作为北太平洋地区海平面气压(SLP)年际变化的第二模态,NPO具有相当正压的结构,在地面表现为...     

MULTIPLE TIME SCALE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE VARIATION IN MACAU DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS

The multiple time scale climate changes are studied and calculated with statistical analysis and wavelet transformation on the basis of daily series of observed data over the period 1901-2007 in Macau.The result shows that statistically significant oscillations with 2 to 5 years of period generally exist in the series of climate variables(e.g.annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation as well as evaporation etc.),but with obvious locality in time domain.The variation of annual mean surface air temperature has a quasi 60-year period.The phases of the 60-year variation approximately and consistently match that of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).The oscillations of seasonal mean surface air temperature in summer and winter have the periods of quasi 30-year and quasi 60-year,respectively.These two periods of oscillations have statistically significant correlation with Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and AMO,individually.The multidecadal variations of the precipitation of the annually first flood period and annual evaporation are dominated by periods of quasi 30-year and quasi 50-year,respectively.     

土壤干旱化对短期气候影响的数值模拟

用加进了奥勒冈州立大学陆面模式(OSULSM)的美国PSU／NCAR第五代中尺度模式(MM5)进行了减少土壤含水量对短期气候影响的模拟试验,目的在于探讨我国北方干旱化对短期气候的影响。试验结果表明,对整个模拟区域月降水总量没有明显的影响,但对不同地区有明显的影响。对月降水量较大地区的影响表现为使月降水量有一定程度的减少,而对月降水量中等以下地区的影响则相反,使月降水量略有增加。分析结果表明,其原因是土壤含水量减少会造成地面潜热通量减少、感热通量增加和陆面温度增高,最后生成一个浅薄的偏差热低压。这个偏差热低压在对流层低层有偏差辐合上升气流与之相配合,在对流层中层以上则与偏差辐散下沉气流相伴。这对于浅薄的降水系统的发展是有利的,但对于强大而深厚的降水系统的发展则不利。     

澳门及其邻近地区海陆风的模拟

利用宾州／美国国家大气研究中心的ＭＭ５模式来模拟澳门的海陆风和珠江口的三维风场。模式设计为四重套网格,分辨率分别为 １ｋｍ,３ ｋｍ,９ ｋｍ,２７ ｋｍ。使用常规观测资料作为初始场,模拟时间为３０小时。结果表明采用高分辨率（１ｋｍ）模拟能很好地捕捉到澳门的海风和陆风。海风锋和热力内边界层也清楚可见。如果最小分辨率为３ ｋｍ,则只捕捉到海风,陆风却模拟不出来。     

微机在r能谱中的应用

本工作用计算机对ｒ能谱获取的数据进行了光滑处理，并通过已知核素在ｒ能谱中的实测数据，拟合出能量道述表达式，选取了适宜的数学模型，对非线性的能量效率曲线进行拟合，提高了定性定量分析的精度和解谱速度，在实际应用中获得了满意的效果。随着核物技术的发展，ｒ能谱在海洋湖沼、环境科学等领域的应用越来越广泛。高分辩率探测器的部世和应用，把该项技术推上更高的水平，一次测量可获得大量校数据，并可同时定性定量分析多种放射性核素，由于射线能量与探测效率的变化是非线性的，而又不遵循一种变化规律，加之背景值的干扰，给ｒ能谱的分析造成一定的困难。计算机的应用为ｒ能谱处理提供了很大方便。     

Organochlorines and dioxin-like compounds in green-lipped mussels Perna viridis from Hong Kong mariculture zones

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine (OC) pesticides and dioxin-like compounds were measured in green-lipped mussels, Perna viridis, collected from seven mariculture zones in Hong Kong between September and October in 2002 in order to evaluate the status, spatial distribution and potential sources of pollution in these areas. Concentrations ranged from 300 to 4400 ng/g lipid weight for total OCs and 170–1000 ng/g lipid weight for total PCBs (based on 28 congeners). Relatively smaller DDT concentrations in mussels compared with previous studies suggest reduced discharges of DDTs from nearby regions into Hong Kong waters. Detection of a mixture of HCH isomers in the mussels indicated that Hong Kong waters were predominantly contaminated by technical HCHs rather than lindane. Mussel samples from all sampling locations elicited significant dioxin-like activity in the H4IIE-luc bioassay. The greatest magnitude of dioxin-like response (39 pg TEQ/g wet wt.) was detected in mussels from Ma Wan in the western waters of Hong Kong, which is strongly influenced by the Pearl River discharge. Human health risk assessment was undertaken to evaluate potential risks associated with the consumption of the green-lipped mussels. Risk quotient (RQ) for dioxin-like compounds was greater than unity suggesting that adverse health effects may be associated with high mussel consumption.